Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] S&P index "M"
Date: Mon, 1 Jul 2002 20:18:19 -0500
Next Article (by Author): [CANSLIM] Re: more incorrect earnings forecast data [T200206300070] "Tom Worley"
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There is a strong possibility that the market has given me another head fake
and false turn confirmation. It is tough to call these counter trend turns
when the dominant trend is as strong as it has been lately.
The turn window for the last low turn forecast doesn't close until 7-2 (see
the 6-15 post below) sometimes during very strong moves turns will even
occur a few days outside the window. With the looming threat of terrorist
activity few traders are willing to be long over the holiday period. This
has been putting additional pressure on the market.
If the market starts to go south tomorrow we will need to see a bounce from
the 959 level. If this level is penetrated then we will likely take out the
low at 953 and head to the 944-937 range before bottoming out. If this
scenario is played out, and no serious terrorist activity occurs over the
holiday period I would expect a pretty strong rally on Monday maybe even
starting as early as Friday.
E
- -----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
Sent: Thursday, June 27, 2002 7:32 PM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] S&P index "M"
The next turn high should occur within four trading days of 7-15. There are
two likely price targets for this turn. The first target is the 1006-1011
range, which corresponds to a .382 retracement of the move from the high
made on 5-17 to the low made on 6-26. The second target is 1048 which
corresponds to a .618 retracement of the same move from 5-17 to 6-26.
If the first target is taken out on strength prior to the turn window then
look for the market to move up to the second target before turning lower.
E
- -----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
Sent: Saturday, June 15, 2002 6:01 PM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Subject: RE:[CANSLIM] S&P index "M"
The next significant low turn for the S&P should occur within four trading
days of 6-26 with the turn most likely happening during the last half of the
window from 6-26 to 7-2. The target price range is 965 - 958. If the turn
comes early in the window it is more likely to be in the high part of the
range and if the turn comes late in the window it is more likely to be in
the low part of the range.
E
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<div class=3DSection1>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle24><font size=3D2 color=3D"#00=
3300"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'>There is a strong possibility that the market has given me another h=
ead
fake and false turn confirmation. It is tough to call these counter trend t=
urns
when the dominant trend is as strong as it has been lately.<o:p></o:p></spa=
n></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle24><font size=3D2 color=3D"#00=
3300"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle24><font size=3D2 color=3D"#00=
3300"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'>The turn window for the last low turn forecast doesn’t close u=
ntil 7-2
(see the 6-15 post below) sometimes during very strong moves turns will even
occur a few days outside the window. With the looming threat of terrorist
activity few traders are willing to be long over the holiday period. This h=
as
been putting additional pressure on the market.<o:p></o:p></span></font></s=
pan></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle24><font size=3D2 color=3D"#00=
3300"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle24><font size=3D2 color=3D"#00=
3300"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'>If the market starts to go south tomorrow we will need to see a boun=
ce
from the 959 level. If this level is penetrated then we will likely take out
the low at 953 and head to the 944-937 range before bottoming out. If this =
scenario
is played out, and no serious terrorist activity occurs over the holiday pe=
riod
I would expect a pretty strong rally on Monday maybe even starting as early=
as
Friday.<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle24><font size=3D2 color=3D"#00=
3300"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle24><font size=3D2 color=3D"#00=
3300"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'>E <o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle24><font size=3D2 color=3D"#00=
3300"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:blac=
k'>-----Original
Message-----<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b> Hill, Ernie <br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Thursday, June 27, 200=
2 7:32
PM<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> 'canslim@lists.xmission.=
com'<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> RE: [CANSLIM] S&=
;P
index "M"</span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Time=
s New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p><=
/o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><span class=3DEmailStyle23>=
<font
size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi=
- -font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>The next turn high </span></font></spa=
n><font
size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fam=
ily:Arial;
color:blue'>should occur within four trading days of 7-15. There are two li=
kely
price targets for this turn. The first target is the 1006-1011 range, which
corresponds to a .382 retracement of the move from the high made on 5-17 to=
the
low made on 6-26. The second target is 1048 which corresponds to a .618
retracement of the same move from 5-17 to 6-26.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'><![if !supportEmpty=
Paras]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>If the first target=
is
taken out on strength prior to the turn window then look for the market to =
move
up to the second target before turning lower.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'><![if !supportEmpty=
Paras]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>E</span></font><span
class=3DEmailStyle23><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3DArial><span style=
=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'><o:p></o:p><=
/span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><span class=3DEmailStyle23>=
<font
size=3D2 color=3D"#993366" face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso=
- -bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></=
o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:blac=
k'>-----Original
Message-----<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b> Hill, Ernie <br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Saturday, June 15, 200=
2 6:01
PM<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> 'canslim@lists.xmission.=
com'<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> RE:[CANSLIM] S&P
index "M"</span></font><font color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:b=
lack;
mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><![if=
!supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]></span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>=
The next
significant low turn for the S&P should occur within four trading days =
of
6-26 with the turn most likely happening during the last half of the window
from 6-26 to 7-2. The target price range is 965 - 958. If the turn comes ea=
rly
in the window it is more likely to be in the high part of the range and if =
the
turn comes late in the window it is more likely to be in the low part of the
range.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>=
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>=
E<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy
face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:navy=
'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><![if=
!supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]></span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Courier N=
ew";
color:black'><br>
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