Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Kelly Short" <kelly.short@neoris.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Yahoo in trouble or wising up?
Date: Wed, 3 Jul 2002 09:29:13 -0500
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Katherine,
=20
Please don't spread this around..... but, I work in the technology =
industry and I don't have much interest in investing in technology =
companies. Shhhhh!
- -----Original Message-----
From: Katherine Malm [mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net]
Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 9:26 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Yahoo in trouble or wising up?
Kelly,
=20
Interesting you should bring up Yahoo, as there was a very good article =
on the failure of Broadband Internet and reference to Yahoo at =
yesterday's Briefing.com. From a CANSLIM perspective, I think it's an =
important one, as it shows that the technology direction that everybody =
was betting on may not come to fruition. I'm even inclined to mark it =
off my macrotheme list altogether. Up to now, I've been watching for =
signs of the ultimate broadband "killer app" , and technology and/or =
legislation which would solve the last mile problem. Turns out it may =
just not be something we'll need to monitor for some time to come. Darn, =
guess I'll have to do some more studying on immerging =
technologies....but then again, maybe I'll just go take a swim....
=20
Katherine
=20
PS Article pasted after Kelly's message....
=20
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: Kelly <mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com> Short=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 9:14 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Yahoo in trouble or wising up?
Yahoo has recently ejected their streaming financial tv/internet service =
("the only one of its kind"? hello Bloomberg) and now Ziff-Davis is =
pulling Yahoo Internet Life. Is Yahoo in trouble, ejecting dogs, or are =
they wising up and returning to their roots? (Sergey Brin, cofounder of =
Google, calls it "their biggest mistake" straying from a search engine).
=20
today's article on Internet Life: =
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=3D%7BEC1E19EB%2D6ECE%2D404=
B%2DB521%2D849F9797C744%7D =
<http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=3D%7BEC1E19EB%2D6ECE%2D40=
4B%2DB521%2D849F9797C744%7D&siteid=3Dmktw> &siteid=3Dmktw
=20
Kelly
=20
=3D=3D=3D
=20
Broadband's Failure - The Real Reason=09
02-Jul-02 09:20 ET=09
=09
[BRIEFING.COM - Robert V. Green] Last week, Yahoo announced that they =
were shutting down their broadband product lines that create original =
content, including Yahoo! FinanceVision and Yahoo! Radio. Herein lies a =
key, simple explanation as to why broadband has been slow to be adopted =
- - and why broadband will not revive the technology vendors.=20
Why Broadband Is Important
Broadband technology was widely viewed as the next wave of the great =
internet buildout. Internet I, as it was called, was the textual =
internet. Internet II was viewed as the visual internet.=20
As late as 1999, the internet II was viewed as the next phase which =
would take the internet revolution, and stock market boom, to even =
higher heights. The internet infrastructure would have to be doubled, =
benefitting every level of network supplier, including: Cisco, JDS =
Uniphase, Exodus Communications, etc.=20
Even the collapse of the textual internet dot-com companies did not =
deter some investors from believing in the internet II broadband vision. =
The AOL/Time-Warner merger was supposed to the king of the new broadband =
era. But that never happened.=20
In fact, many still view broadband - meaning streaming video and audio - =
as the great technology white-horse that could rescue the technology =
industry from its current slump.=20
And it isn't going to happen. At least, not in the foreseeable future.=20
The Real Problem
Broadband video applications failed because of one simple reason:=20
You can't watch TV at work.
Face it, the vast number of internet users are using the internet at =
work, instead of working. And broadband video is essentially the same as =
TV.
Certainly on-line brokerage accounts owed their great emergence to one =
simple fact: you could finally trade stocks at work.=20
Online trading software existed before the internet came along, but it =
was largely considered a colossal failure. FOX (Fidelity Online =
Exchange) software, manufactured by Meca Software (now defunct) was a =
huge disaster in the early nineties. Why? Because you couldn't use this =
software at work. It required that you dial-in, on a modem, to the =
system. Office PCs didn't easily have this capability.=20
When the internet came along, access to online trading was simple. =
Internet access, especially in the beginning, was completely open. =
Anyone could trade. Instead of calling your broker (which others in the =
office would be able to hear), you could enter a trade - and it would =
look like you were working. Not only that, but it was cheaper than a =
trade from even a discount broker.=20
Online trading, and all of the associated internet activities with it, =
boomed. Internet trading made an existing task easier and cheaper: =
online trading liquifiedthe market for market transactions.=20
The applications which were successful on the internet during Internet I =
days all had the following aspect in common: they liquified an existing =
trait or business. Chat rooms liquified water cooler talk. Email =
liquified phone calls. Instant messaging liquified email.=20
But broadband video doesn't liquify anything, especially in the business =
arena.=20
Yahoo! FinanceVision failed because it is neither cheaper nor easier =
than watching CNBC and most offices don't watch CNBC anyways! Because of =
this, no one was willing to pay for it.=20
The Future For Business Broadband
So if broadband is to succeed in the business market, it needs to =
liquify an existing business function.=20
At the moment, teleconferencing is the most likely business event to be =
liquified by broadband video.=20
However, here, audio already works remarkably well, and the price has =
been continually dropping. Audio conference meetings are becoming more =
popular and more frequent. Broadband audio conferencing stand little =
chance of replacing the audio teleconference.=20
Webcasting of conference calls, now widespread, does not replace =
ordinary teleconferencing, although it has reduced dial-up 1-800 costs. =
However, those costs are replaced by the costs of providing the webcast =
service.=20
Technologies such as webconferencing (Webex or Interwise, for example) =
are growing in popularity. These allow a company to present Powerpoint =
presentations or multi-media presentations over the internet. These =
services liquify a sales call. They probably have strong futures.=20
But the webconferencing technologies all work well with existing =
internet infrastructure. Even rapid growth in webconferencing will not =
provide a strong driver to building out the "internet II" network, with =
the anticipated benefits to Cisco, Juniper Networks, Sycamore, etc. =
Webconferencing services work well with today's infrastructure.=20
Other than webconferencing, what existing business function does =
broadband replace, at lower and easier costs? If you cannot provide an =
answer, broadband cannot be viewed as a dramatic driver of the internet =
infrastructure.=20
The Future For Consumer Broadband
Consumer broadband prospects are even fuzzier.=20
The truth is that broadband simply costs too much for much home markets. =
Most people use the internet primarily for email and instant messaging. =
AOL has about half of the consumer market - and that's what they think =
the internet is - email and IM.=20
TV rules the video entertainment market. Broadband internet video is =
neither cheaper (it is often more expensive than cable) nor easier (the =
remote control beats keyboard/mouse easily) than TV. Until it is, =
broadband will not dethrone TV as the video device of choice.=20
To make matters even worse, content for broadband video is significantly =
worse than for TV, because the best TV content has been syndicated to =
TV, not the web.=20
Pornography is the only significant broadband service. It provides =
pay-per-view video and is a lot easier, and more private, than going to =
the XXX video store. Quality of video does not matter. Broadband =
pornography liquifies the existing porno market.=20
But there is nothing on broadband today that liquifies the home video =
entertainment market. In fact, there is a lot working against broadband: =
TiVo and DVD subscription services are just two major drivers.=20
Until broadband, internet-based on-demand-video gets linked to the TV, =
and not the PC, broadband will not have significant penetration =
difficulties in the consumer market.=20
The Implications
For those of you thinking "Great - why didn't you tell me earlier" we =
did. Any frequent reader of our Stock Briefs knows that we have long =
been discussing this. We became luke-warm on the "internet II" idea =
years ago:=20
* 23-Oct-00 =
<http://www.briefing.com/scripts/sub/stocks/PowerAnchor.asp?varArticleID=3D=
SB20001023075800rvgreen> The Broadband Future Gets Fuzzy=20
* 27-Nov-00 =
<http://www.briefing.com/scripts/sub/stocks/PowerAnchor.asp?varArticleID=3D=
SB20001127082353rvgreen> The Internet: What We've Learned=20
If you are still waiting for broadband - Internet II as it is called - =
to rescue the tech sector - forget it. You need to develop another =
premise for a major driver of technology stocks. (Good luck - we haven't =
been able to.)=20
Broadband applications are likely to continue to develop, but slowly, =
and not be a major driver of the overall technology market and certainly =
not be a major driver of continued internet buildout.=20
Unlike cable TV or satellite TV, both of which took their markets by =
storm, broadband video is still looking for the key element that would =
make it a bull market: liquifying an existing market. Until that =
happens, broadband applications are likely to continue to struggle to =
find meaningful markets.=20
Yahoo! found this out the hard way with Yahoo FinanceVision and Yahoo =
Radio.=20
Comments may be emailed to the author, Robert V. Green, at =
rvgreen@briefing.com=20
_____ =20
=20
_____ =20
For your protection, this e-mail message has been scanned for viruses.=20
Visit us at http://www.neoris.com/=20
_____ =20
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<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D839192814-03072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>Katherine,</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D839192814-03072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D839192814-03072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>Please=20
don't spread this around..... but, I work in the technology industry and =
I don't=20
have much interest in investing in technology companies.=20
Shhhhh!</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> Katherine Malm=20
[mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net]<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, July 03, 2002 =
9:26=20
AM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
Yahoo in trouble or wising up?<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Kelly,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Interesting you should bring up Yahoo, as there was a very good =
article=20
on the failure of Broadband Internet and reference to Yahoo at =
yesterday's=20
Briefing.com. From a CANSLIM perspective, I think it's an =
important one,=20
as it shows that the technology direction that everybody was betting =
on may=20
not come to fruition. I'm even inclined to mark it off my macrotheme =
list=20
altogether. Up to now, I've been watching for signs of the ultimate =
broadband=20
"killer app" , and technology and/or legislation which would solve the =
last=20
mile problem. Turns out it may just not be something we'll need to =
monitor for=20
some time to come. Darn, guess I'll have to do some more studying on =
immerging=20
technologies....but then again, maybe I'll just go take a =
swim....</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>PS Article pasted after Kelly's message....</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkelly.short@neoris.com =
href=3D"mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com">Kelly=20
Short</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, July 03, 2002 =
9:14=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Yahoo in =
trouble or=20
wising up?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D899491014-03072002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2>Yahoo has recently ejected their streaming financial =
tv/internet=20
service ("the only one of its kind"? hello Bloomberg) and now =
Ziff-Davis is=20
pulling Yahoo Internet Life. Is Yahoo in trouble, ejecting dogs, or =
are they=20
wising up and returning to their roots? (Sergey Brin, cofounder of =
Google,=20
calls it "their biggest mistake" straying from a search=20
engine).</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D899491014-03072002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D899491014-03072002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2>today's article on Internet Life: <A=20
=
href=3D"http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=3D%7BEC1E19EB%2D6E=
CE%2D404B%2DB521%2D849F9797C744%7D&siteid=3Dmktw">http://cbs.marketwa=
tch.com/news/story.asp?guid=3D%7BEC1E19EB%2D6ECE%2D404B%2DB521%2D849F9797=
C744%7D&siteid=3Dmktw</A></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D899491014-03072002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D899491014-03072002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2>Kelly</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D899491014-03072002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D899491014-03072002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2>=3D=3D=3D</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D899491014-03072002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D899491014-03072002>
<TABLE cellSpacing=3D0 cellPadding=3D4 width=3D"100%">
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD class=3Dheader>Broadband's Failure - The Real Reason</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD><FONT class=3Ddate face=3DVerdana =
size=3D1><STRONG>02-Jul-02 09:20=20
ET</STRONG></FONT></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=3D8><STRONG><FONT face=3DVerdana =
size=3D1></FONT></STRONG></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD>
<P>[BRIEFING.COM - Robert V. Green] Last week, Yahoo announced =
that they=20
were shutting down their broadband product lines that create =
original=20
content, including Yahoo! FinanceVision and Yahoo! Radio. Herein =
lies a=20
key, simple explanation as to why broadband has been slow to be =
adopted=20
- and why broadband will not revive the technology vendors. </P>
<H3>Why Broadband Is Important</H3>
<P>Broadband technology was widely viewed as the next wave of =
the great=20
internet buildout. Internet I, as it was called, was the textual =
internet. Internet II was viewed as the visual internet. </P>
<P>As late as 1999, the internet II was viewed as the next phase =
which=20
would take the internet revolution, and stock market boom, to =
even=20
higher heights. The internet infrastructure would have to be =
doubled,=20
benefitting every level of network supplier, including: Cisco, =
JDS=20
Uniphase, Exodus Communications, etc. </P>
<P>Even the collapse of the textual internet dot-com companies =
did not=20
deter some investors from believing in the internet II broadband =
vision.=20
The AOL/Time-Warner merger was supposed to the king of the new =
broadband=20
era. But that never happened. </P>
<P>In fact, many <I>still </I>view broadband - meaning streaming =
video=20
and audio - as the great technology white-horse that could =
rescue the=20
technology industry from its current slump. </P>
<P>And it isn't going to happen. At least, not in the =
foreseeable=20
future. </P>
<H3>The Real Problem</H3>
<P>Broadband video applications failed because of one simple =
reason:=20
</P>
<BLOCKQUOTE>
<P><I>You can't watch TV at work.</I></P></BLOCKQUOTE>
<P>Face it, the vast number of internet users are using the =
internet=20
<I>at work,</I> instead of working. And broadband video is =
essentially=20
the same as TV.</P>
<P>Certainly on-line brokerage accounts owed their great =
emergence to=20
one simple fact: you could finally trade stocks at work. </P>
<P>Online trading software existed before the internet came =
along, but=20
it was largely considered a colossal failure. FOX (Fidelity =
Online=20
Exchange) software, manufactured by Meca Software (now defunct) =
was a=20
huge disaster in the early nineties. Why? Because you couldn't =
use this=20
software at work. It required that you dial-in, on a modem, to =
the=20
system. Office PCs didn't easily have this capability. </P>
<P>When the internet came along, access to online trading was =
simple.=20
Internet access, especially in the beginning, was completely =
open.=20
<I>Anyone </I>could trade. Instead of calling your broker (which =
others=20
in the office would be able to hear), you could enter a trade - =
<I>and=20
it would look like you were working.</I> Not only that, but it =
was=20
cheaper than a trade from even a discount broker. </P>
<P>Online trading, and all of the associated internet activities =
with=20
it, boomed. Internet trading made an existing task easier and =
cheaper:=20
<I>online trading</I> <I>liquified</I><I>the market</I> for =
market=20
transactions. </P>
<P>The applications which were successful on the internet during =
Internet I days all had the following aspect in common: they =
liquified=20
an existing trait or business. Chat rooms liquified water cooler =
talk.=20
Email liquified phone calls. Instant messaging liquified email. =
</P>
<P>But broadband video doesn't liquify anything, especially in =
the=20
business arena. </P>
<P><I>Yahoo! FinanceVision failed because it is neither cheaper =
nor=20
easier than watching CNBC and most offices don't watch CNBC =
anyways!</I>=20
Because of this, no one was willing to pay for it. </P>
<H3>The Future For Business Broadband</H3>
<P>So if broadband is to succeed in the business market, it =
needs to=20
liquify an existing business function. </P>
<P>At the moment, teleconferencing is the most likely business =
event to=20
be liquified by broadband video. </P>
<P>However, here, audio already works remarkably well, and the =
price has=20
been continually dropping. Audio conference meetings are =
becoming more=20
popular and more frequent. Broadband audio conferencing stand =
little=20
chance of replacing the audio teleconference. </P>
<P>Webcasting of conference calls, now widespread, does not =
replace=20
ordinary teleconferencing, although it has reduced dial-up 1-800 =
costs.=20
However, those costs are replaced by the costs of providing the =
webcast=20
service. </P>
<P>Technologies such as webconferencing (Webex or Interwise, for =
example) are growing in popularity. These allow a company to =
present=20
Powerpoint presentations or multi-media presentations over the =
internet.=20
These services <I>liquify a sales call. </I>They probably have =
strong=20
futures. </P>
<P>But the webconferencing technologies all work well with =
existing=20
internet infrastructure. Even rapid growth in webconferencing =
will not=20
provide a strong driver to building out the "internet II" =
network, with=20
the anticipated benefits to Cisco, Juniper Networks, Sycamore, =
etc.=20
Webconferencing services work well with today's infrastructure. =
</P>
<P>Other than webconferencing, what existing business function =
does=20
broadband replace, at lower and easier costs? If you cannot =
provide an=20
answer, broadband cannot be viewed as a dramatic driver of the =
internet=20
infrastructure. </P>
<H3>The Future For Consumer Broadband</H3>
<P>Consumer broadband prospects are even fuzzier. </P>
<P>The truth is that broadband simply costs too much for much =
home=20
markets. Most people use the internet primarily for email and =
instant=20
messaging. AOL has about half of the consumer market - and =
that's what=20
they think the internet is - email and IM. </P>
<P>TV rules the video entertainment market. Broadband internet =
video is=20
neither cheaper (it is often more expensive than cable) nor =
easier (the=20
remote control beats keyboard/mouse easily) than TV. Until it =
is,=20
broadband will not dethrone TV as the video device of choice. =
</P>
<P>To make matters even worse, content for broadband video is=20
significantly worse than for TV, because the best TV content has =
been=20
syndicated to TV, not the web. </P>
<P>Pornography is the only significant broadband service. <I>It =
provides=20
pay-per-view video</I> and is a lot easier, and more private, =
than going=20
to the XXX video store. Quality of video does not matter. =
Broadband=20
pornography liquifies the existing porno market. </P>
<P>But there is nothing on broadband today that liquifies the =
home video=20
entertainment market. In fact, there is a lot working against =
broadband:=20
TiVo and DVD subscription services are just two major drivers. =
</P>
<P>Until broadband, internet-based on-demand-video gets linked =
to the=20
TV, and not the PC, broadband will not have significant =
penetration=20
difficulties in the consumer market. </P>
<H3>The Implications</H3>
<P>For those of you thinking "Great - why didn't you tell me =
earlier" we=20
did. Any frequent reader of our Stock Briefs knows that we have =
long=20
been discussing this. We became luke-warm on the "internet II" =
idea=20
years ago: </P>
<UL>
<LI><A target=3DNEW=20
=
href=3D"http://www.briefing.com/scripts/sub/stocks/PowerAnchor.asp?varArt=
icleID=3DSB20001023075800rvgreen">23-Oct-00=20
The Broadband Future Gets Fuzzy </A>
<LI><A target=3D_NEW=20
=
href=3D"http://www.briefing.com/scripts/sub/stocks/PowerAnchor.asp?varArt=
icleID=3DSB20001127082353rvgreen">27-Nov-00=20
The Internet: What We've Learned</A> </LI></UL>
<P>If you are still waiting for broadband - Internet II as it is =
called=20
- to rescue the tech sector - forget it. You need to develop =
another=20
premise for a major driver of technology stocks. (Good luck - we =
haven't=20
been able to.) </P>
<P>Broadband applications are likely to continue to develop, but =
slowly,=20
and not be a major driver of the overall technology market and =
certainly=20
not be a major driver of continued internet buildout. </P>
<P>Unlike cable TV or satellite TV, both of which took their =
markets by=20
storm, broadband video is still looking for the key element that =
would=20
make it a bull market: <I>liquifying an existing market. =
</I>Until that=20
happens, broadband applications are likely to continue to =
struggle to=20
find meaningful markets. </P>
<P>Yahoo! found this out the hard way with Yahoo FinanceVision =
and Yahoo=20
Radio. </P>
<P>Comments may be emailed to the author, Robert V. Green, at <A =
href=3D"mailto:rvgreen@briefing.com">rvgreen@briefing.com</A>=20
</P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></SPAN></DIV></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">
<HR>
</DIV>
<P> </P></BLOCKQUOTE>
<HR>
For your protection, this e-mail message has been scanned for viruses. =
<P>Visit us at <A =
href=3D"http://www.neoris.com/">http://www.neoris.com/</A>=20
<HR>
<P></P></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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