Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Duke Miller" <dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Yahoo in trouble or wising up?
Date: Wed, 3 Jul 2002 10:56:50 -0400
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Katherine:
Interesting comments.
Which makes me wonder why I feel the way I do about broadband, to wit:
If somebody took my cable modem away from me I'd feel like both my hands
were tied behind my back and my oxygen cut off. Of course, I am
expensing the $44.50 a month Time-Warner is nailing me for! Maybe it
will travel the way the Cell Phone and most other technologies. I
remember when I used to pay 40 cents a minute for calls on those 3-pound
Motorola phones! And, oh those roaming charges!
Duke
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 10:26 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Yahoo in trouble or wising up?
Kelly,
Interesting you should bring up Yahoo, as there was a very good article
on the failure of Broadband Internet and reference to Yahoo at
yesterday's Briefing.com. From a CANSLIM perspective, I think it's an
important one, as it shows that the technology direction that everybody
was betting on may not come to fruition. I'm even inclined to mark it
off my macrotheme list altogether. Up to now, I've been watching for
signs of the ultimate broadband "killer app" , and technology and/or
legislation which would solve the last mile problem. Turns out it may
just not be something we'll need to monitor for some time to come. Darn,
guess I'll have to do some more studying on immerging
technologies....but then again, maybe I'll just go take a swim....
Katherine
PS Article pasted after Kelly's message....
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Kelly <mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com> Short
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 9:14 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Yahoo in trouble or wising up?
Yahoo has recently ejected their streaming financial tv/internet service
("the only one of its kind"? hello Bloomberg) and now Ziff-Davis is
pulling Yahoo Internet Life. Is Yahoo in trouble, ejecting dogs, or are
they wising up and returning to their roots? (Sergey Brin, cofounder of
Google, calls it "their biggest mistake" straying from a search engine).
today's article on Internet Life:
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BEC1E19EB%2D6ECE%2D404B
%2DB521%2D849F9797C744%7D
<http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BEC1E19EB%2D6ECE%2D404
B%2DB521%2D849F9797C744%7D&siteid=mktw> &siteid=mktw
Kelly
===
Broadband's Failure - The Real Reason
02-Jul-02 09:20 ET
[BRIEFING.COM - Robert V. Green] Last week, Yahoo announced that they
were shutting down their broadband product lines that create original
content, including Yahoo! FinanceVision and Yahoo! Radio. Herein lies a
key, simple explanation as to why broadband has been slow to be adopted
- - and why broadband will not revive the technology vendors.
Why Broadband Is Important
Broadband technology was widely viewed as the next wave of the great
internet buildout. Internet I, as it was called, was the textual
internet. Internet II was viewed as the visual internet.
As late as 1999, the internet II was viewed as the next phase which
would take the internet revolution, and stock market boom, to even
higher heights. The internet infrastructure would have to be doubled,
benefitting every level of network supplier, including: Cisco, JDS
Uniphase, Exodus Communications, etc.
Even the collapse of the textual internet dot-com companies did not
deter some investors from believing in the internet II broadband vision.
The AOL/Time-Warner merger was supposed to the king of the new broadband
era. But that never happened.
In fact, many still view broadband - meaning streaming video and audio -
as the great technology white-horse that could rescue the technology
industry from its current slump.
And it isn't going to happen. At least, not in the foreseeable future.
The Real Problem
Broadband video applications failed because of one simple reason:
You can't watch TV at work.
Face it, the vast number of internet users are using the internet at
work, instead of working. And broadband video is essentially the same as
TV.
Certainly on-line brokerage accounts owed their great emergence to one
simple fact: you could finally trade stocks at work.
Online trading software existed before the internet came along, but it
was largely considered a colossal failure. FOX (Fidelity Online
Exchange) software, manufactured by Meca Software (now defunct) was a
huge disaster in the early nineties. Why? Because you couldn't use this
software at work. It required that you dial-in, on a modem, to the
system. Office PCs didn't easily have this capability.
When the internet came along, access to online trading was simple.
Internet access, especially in the beginning, was completely open.
Anyone could trade. Instead of calling your broker (which others in the
office would be able to hear), you could enter a trade - and it would
look like you were working. Not only that, but it was cheaper than a
trade from even a discount broker.
Online trading, and all of the associated internet activities with it,
boomed. Internet trading made an existing task easier and cheaper:
online trading liquifiedthe market for market transactions.
The applications which were successful on the internet during Internet I
days all had the following aspect in common: they liquified an existing
trait or business. Chat rooms liquified water cooler talk. Email
liquified phone calls. Instant messaging liquified email.
But broadband video doesn't liquify anything, especially in the business
arena.
Yahoo! FinanceVision failed because it is neither cheaper nor easier
than watching CNBC and most offices don't watch CNBC anyways! Because of
this, no one was willing to pay for it.
The Future For Business Broadband
So if broadband is to succeed in the business market, it needs to
liquify an existing business function.
At the moment, teleconferencing is the most likely business event to be
liquified by broadband video.
However, here, audio already works remarkably well, and the price has
been continually dropping. Audio conference meetings are becoming more
popular and more frequent. Broadband audio conferencing stand little
chance of replacing the audio teleconference.
Webcasting of conference calls, now widespread, does not replace
ordinary teleconferencing, although it has reduced dial-up 1-800 costs.
However, those costs are replaced by the costs of providing the webcast
service.
Technologies such as webconferencing (Webex or Interwise, for example)
are growing in popularity. These allow a company to present Powerpoint
presentations or multi-media presentations over the internet. These
services liquify a sales call. They probably have strong futures.
But the webconferencing technologies all work well with existing
internet infrastructure. Even rapid growth in webconferencing will not
provide a strong driver to building out the "internet II" network, with
the anticipated benefits to Cisco, Juniper Networks, Sycamore, etc.
Webconferencing services work well with today's infrastructure.
Other than webconferencing, what existing business function does
broadband replace, at lower and easier costs? If you cannot provide an
answer, broadband cannot be viewed as a dramatic driver of the internet
infrastructure.
The Future For Consumer Broadband
Consumer broadband prospects are even fuzzier.
The truth is that broadband simply costs too much for much home markets.
Most people use the internet primarily for email and instant messaging.
AOL has about half of the consumer market - and that's what they think
the internet is - email and IM.
TV rules the video entertainment market. Broadband internet video is
neither cheaper (it is often more expensive than cable) nor easier (the
remote control beats keyboard/mouse easily) than TV. Until it is,
broadband will not dethrone TV as the video device of choice.
To make matters even worse, content for broadband video is significantly
worse than for TV, because the best TV content has been syndicated to
TV, not the web.
Pornography is the only significant broadband service. It provides
pay-per-view video and is a lot easier, and more private, than going to
the XXX video store. Quality of video does not matter. Broadband
pornography liquifies the existing porno market.
But there is nothing on broadband today that liquifies the home video
entertainment market. In fact, there is a lot working against broadband:
TiVo and DVD subscription services are just two major drivers.
Until broadband, internet-based on-demand-video gets linked to the TV,
and not the PC, broadband will not have significant penetration
difficulties in the consumer market.
The Implications
For those of you thinking "Great - why didn't you tell me earlier" we
did. Any frequent reader of our Stock Briefs knows that we have long
been discussing this. We became luke-warm on the "internet II" idea
years ago:
* 23-Oct-00 The Broadband Future Gets Fuzzy
<http://www.briefing.com/scripts/sub/stocks/PowerAnchor.asp?varArticleID
=SB20001023075800rvgreen>
* 27-Nov-00 The Internet: What We've Learned
<http://www.briefing.com/scripts/sub/stocks/PowerAnchor.asp?varArticleID
=SB20001127082353rvgreen>
If you are still waiting for broadband - Internet II as it is called -
to rescue the tech sector - forget it. You need to develop another
premise for a major driver of technology stocks. (Good luck - we haven't
been able to.)
Broadband applications are likely to continue to develop, but slowly,
and not be a major driver of the overall technology market and certainly
not be a major driver of continued internet buildout.
Unlike cable TV or satellite TV, both of which took their markets by
storm, broadband video is still looking for the key element that would
make it a bull market: liquifying an existing market. Until that
happens, broadband applications are likely to continue to struggle to
find meaningful markets.
Yahoo! found this out the hard way with Yahoo FinanceVision and Yahoo
Radio.
Comments may be emailed to the author, Robert V. Green, at
rvgreen@briefing.com
_____
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<DIV><SPAN class=3D093355114-03072002><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Katherine:</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D093355114-03072002><FONT =
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D093355114-03072002><FONT face=3DArial>Interesting =
comments. =20
</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D093355114-03072002><FONT =
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D093355114-03072002><FONT face=3DArial>Which makes me =
wonder why I=20
feel the way I do about broadband, to wit: If somebody took my =
cable modem=20
away from me I'd feel like both my hands were tied behind my back and my =
oxygen=20
cut off. Of course, I am expensing the $44.50 a month Time-Warner =
is=20
nailing me for! Maybe it will travel the way the Cell Phone and =
most other=20
technologies. I remember when I used to pay 40 cents a minute for =
calls on=20
those 3-pound Motorola phones! And, oh those roaming=20
charges!</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D093355114-03072002><FONT =
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D093355114-03072002><FONT =
face=3DArial>Duke</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader lang=3Den-us dir=3Dltr =
align=3Dleft><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20
<B>On Behalf Of </B>Katherine Malm<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, July 03, =
2002=20
10:26 AM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> =
Re:=20
[CANSLIM] Yahoo in trouble or wising up?<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Kelly,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Interesting you should bring up Yahoo, as there was a very good =
article=20
on the failure of Broadband Internet and reference to Yahoo at =
yesterday's=20
Briefing.com. From a CANSLIM perspective, I think it's an =
important one,=20
as it shows that the technology direction that everybody was betting =
on may=20
not come to fruition. I'm even inclined to mark it off my macrotheme =
list=20
altogether. Up to now, I've been watching for signs of the ultimate =
broadband=20
"killer app" , and technology and/or legislation which would solve the =
last=20
mile problem. Turns out it may just not be something we'll need to =
monitor for=20
some time to come. Darn, guess I'll have to do some more studying on =
immerging=20
technologies....but then again, maybe I'll just go take a =
swim....</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>PS Article pasted after Kelly's message....</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkelly.short@neoris.com =
href=3D"mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com">Kelly=20
Short</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, July 03, 2002 =
9:14=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Yahoo in =
trouble or=20
wising up?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D899491014-03072002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2>Yahoo has recently ejected their streaming financial =
tv/internet=20
service ("the only one of its kind"? hello Bloomberg) and now =
Ziff-Davis is=20
pulling Yahoo Internet Life. Is Yahoo in trouble, ejecting dogs, or =
are they=20
wising up and returning to their roots? (Sergey Brin, cofounder of =
Google,=20
calls it "their biggest mistake" straying from a search=20
engine).</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D899491014-03072002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D899491014-03072002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2>today's article on Internet Life: <A=20
=
href=3D"http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=3D%7BEC1E19EB%2D6E=
CE%2D404B%2DB521%2D849F9797C744%7D&siteid=3Dmktw">http://cbs.marketwa=
tch.com/news/story.asp?guid=3D%7BEC1E19EB%2D6ECE%2D404B%2DB521%2D849F9797=
C744%7D&siteid=3Dmktw</A></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D899491014-03072002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D899491014-03072002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2>Kelly</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D899491014-03072002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D899491014-03072002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2>=3D=3D=3D</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D899491014-03072002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D899491014-03072002>
<TABLE cellSpacing=3D0 cellPadding=3D4 width=3D"100%">
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD class=3Dheader>Broadband's Failure - The Real Reason</TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD><FONT class=3Ddate face=3DVerdana =
size=3D1><STRONG>02-Jul-02 09:20=20
ET</STRONG></FONT></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD height=3D8><STRONG><FONT face=3DVerdana =
size=3D1></FONT></STRONG></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD>
<P>[BRIEFING.COM - Robert V. Green] Last week, Yahoo announced =
that they=20
were shutting down their broadband product lines that create =
original=20
content, including Yahoo! FinanceVision and Yahoo! Radio. Herein =
lies a=20
key, simple explanation as to why broadband has been slow to be =
adopted=20
- and why broadband will not revive the technology vendors. </P>
<H3>Why Broadband Is Important</H3>
<P>Broadband technology was widely viewed as the next wave of =
the great=20
internet buildout. Internet I, as it was called, was the textual =
internet. Internet II was viewed as the visual internet. </P>
<P>As late as 1999, the internet II was viewed as the next phase =
which=20
would take the internet revolution, and stock market boom, to =
even=20
higher heights. The internet infrastructure would have to be =
doubled,=20
benefitting every level of network supplier, including: Cisco, =
JDS=20
Uniphase, Exodus Communications, etc. </P>
<P>Even the collapse of the textual internet dot-com companies =
did not=20
deter some investors from believing in the internet II broadband =
vision.=20
The AOL/Time-Warner merger was supposed to the king of the new =
broadband=20
era. But that never happened. </P>
<P>In fact, many <I>still </I>view broadband - meaning streaming =
video=20
and audio - as the great technology white-horse that could =
rescue the=20
technology industry from its current slump. </P>
<P>And it isn't going to happen. At least, not in the =
foreseeable=20
future. </P>
<H3>The Real Problem</H3>
<P>Broadband video applications failed because of one simple =
reason:=20
</P>
<BLOCKQUOTE>
<P><I>You can't watch TV at work.</I></P></BLOCKQUOTE>
<P>Face it, the vast number of internet users are using the =
internet=20
<I>at work,</I> instead of working. And broadband video is =
essentially=20
the same as TV.</P>
<P>Certainly on-line brokerage accounts owed their great =
emergence to=20
one simple fact: you could finally trade stocks at work. </P>
<P>Online trading software existed before the internet came =
along, but=20
it was largely considered a colossal failure. FOX (Fidelity =
Online=20
Exchange) software, manufactured by Meca Software (now defunct) =
was a=20
huge disaster in the early nineties. Why? Because you couldn't =
use this=20
software at work. It required that you dial-in, on a modem, to =
the=20
system. Office PCs didn't easily have this capability. </P>
<P>When the internet came along, access to online trading was =
simple.=20
Internet access, especially in the beginning, was completely =
open.=20
<I>Anyone </I>could trade. Instead of calling your broker (which =
others=20
in the office would be able to hear), you could enter a trade - =
<I>and=20
it would look like you were working.</I> Not only that, but it =
was=20
cheaper than a trade from even a discount broker. </P>
<P>Online trading, and all of the associated internet activities =
with=20
it, boomed. Internet trading made an existing task easier and =
cheaper:=20
<I>online trading</I> <I>liquified</I><I>the market</I> for =
market=20
transactions. </P>
<P>The applications which were successful on the internet during =
Internet I days all had the following aspect in common: they =
liquified=20
an existing trait or business. Chat rooms liquified water cooler =
talk.=20
Email liquified phone calls. Instant messaging liquified email. =
</P>
<P>But broadband video doesn't liquify anything, especially in =
the=20
business arena. </P>
<P><I>Yahoo! FinanceVision failed because it is neither cheaper =
nor=20
easier than watching CNBC and most offices don't watch CNBC =
anyways!</I>=20
Because of this, no one was willing to pay for it. </P>
<H3>The Future For Business Broadband</H3>
<P>So if broadband is to succeed in the business market, it =
needs to=20
liquify an existing business function. </P>
<P>At the moment, teleconferencing is the most likely business =
event to=20
be liquified by broadband video. </P>
<P>However, here, audio already works remarkably well, and the =
price has=20
been continually dropping. Audio conference meetings are =
becoming more=20
popular and more frequent. Broadband audio conferencing stand =
little=20
chance of replacing the audio teleconference. </P>
<P>Webcasting of conference calls, now widespread, does not =
replace=20
ordinary teleconferencing, although it has reduced dial-up 1-800 =
costs.=20
However, those costs are replaced by the costs of providing the =
webcast=20
service. </P>
<P>Technologies such as webconferencing (Webex or Interwise, for =
example) are growing in popularity. These allow a company to =
present=20
Powerpoint presentations or multi-media presentations over the =
internet.=20
These services <I>liquify a sales call. </I>They probably have =
strong=20
futures. </P>
<P>But the webconferencing technologies all work well with =
existing=20
internet infrastructure. Even rapid growth in webconferencing =
will not=20
provide a strong driver to building out the "internet II" =
network, with=20
the anticipated benefits to Cisco, Juniper Networks, Sycamore, =
etc.=20
Webconferencing services work well with today's infrastructure. =
</P>
<P>Other than webconferencing, what existing business function =
does=20
broadband replace, at lower and easier costs? If you cannot =
provide an=20
answer, broadband cannot be viewed as a dramatic driver of the =
internet=20
infrastructure. </P>
<H3>The Future For Consumer Broadband</H3>
<P>Consumer broadband prospects are even fuzzier. </P>
<P>The truth is that broadband simply costs too much for much =
home=20
markets. Most people use the internet primarily for email and =
instant=20
messaging. AOL has about half of the consumer market - and =
that's what=20
they think the internet is - email and IM. </P>
<P>TV rules the video entertainment market. Broadband internet =
video is=20
neither cheaper (it is often more expensive than cable) nor =
easier (the=20
remote control beats keyboard/mouse easily) than TV. Until it =
is,=20
broadband will not dethrone TV as the video device of choice. =
</P>
<P>To make matters even worse, content for broadband video is=20
significantly worse than for TV, because the best TV content has =
been=20
syndicated to TV, not the web. </P>
<P>Pornography is the only significant broadband service. <I>It =
provides=20
pay-per-view video</I> and is a lot easier, and more private, =
than going=20
to the XXX video store. Quality of video does not matter. =
Broadband=20
pornography liquifies the existing porno market. </P>
<P>But there is nothing on broadband today that liquifies the =
home video=20
entertainment market. In fact, there is a lot working against =
broadband:=20
TiVo and DVD subscription services are just two major drivers. =
</P>
<P>Until broadband, internet-based on-demand-video gets linked =
to the=20
TV, and not the PC, broadband will not have significant =
penetration=20
difficulties in the consumer market. </P>
<H3>The Implications</H3>
<P>For those of you thinking "Great - why didn't you tell me =
earlier" we=20
did. Any frequent reader of our Stock Briefs knows that we have =
long=20
been discussing this. We became luke-warm on the "internet II" =
idea=20
years ago: </P>
<UL>
<LI><A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.briefing.com/scripts/sub/stocks/PowerAnchor.asp?varArt=
icleID=3DSB20001023075800rvgreen"=20
target=3DNEW>23-Oct-00 The Broadband Future Gets Fuzzy </A>
<LI><A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.briefing.com/scripts/sub/stocks/PowerAnchor.asp?varArt=
icleID=3DSB20001127082353rvgreen"=20
target=3D_NEW>27-Nov-00 The Internet: What We've Learned</A> =
</LI></UL>
<P>If you are still waiting for broadband - Internet II as it is =
called=20
- to rescue the tech sector - forget it. You need to develop =
another=20
premise for a major driver of technology stocks. (Good luck - we =
haven't=20
been able to.) </P>
<P>Broadband applications are likely to continue to develop, but =
slowly,=20
and not be a major driver of the overall technology market and =
certainly=20
not be a major driver of continued internet buildout. </P>
<P>Unlike cable TV or satellite TV, both of which took their =
markets by=20
storm, broadband video is still looking for the key element that =
would=20
make it a bull market: <I>liquifying an existing market. =
</I>Until that=20
happens, broadband applications are likely to continue to =
struggle to=20
find meaningful markets. </P>
<P>Yahoo! found this out the hard way with Yahoo FinanceVision =
and Yahoo=20
Radio. </P>
<P>Comments may be emailed to the author, Robert V. Green, at <A =
href=3D"mailto:rvgreen@briefing.com">rvgreen@briefing.com</A>=20
</P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></SPAN></DIV></DIV>
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