Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD Front Page Graphic...
Date: Wed, 3 Jul 2002 16:34:50 -0500
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Jans,
You make some very valid analogies. I personally believe that there is even
more economic bad news to come. I think we run the very real risk of
deflation similar to but hopefully not as bad as what occurred in Japan.
You wrote:
<That, in my opinion, is why the graphs have similar formations. Also,
IBD mentions a salient point (attention: Ernie): The present Bear has 6
more
months to run before it will equal the duration of the 1930s Bear.>
Before I respond let me again stress the point that I am far better at short
term TA than long term TA. So when I am proven wrong six months from now I
don't want anyone rubbing my nose in it (Dan) :-).
That said, I do analyze the market from a long term perspective as well as a
short term perspective. I see March of next year as being the earliest point
at which we can expect to see a strong move up in the general averages. I
don't think however, that this will mark the end of the bear market. I have
been looking at a lot of work lately on the 15-17 year cycle and also some
other cycle work known as the Benner-Fibonacci cycle. Both of these areas of
cycle work indicate that we will be in a bear market until approximately
2021. That doesn't mean though that there won't be some major price advances
that will feel like a bull market.
As for the comparisons to the 1929-1932 crash I as a technician can't argue
with what I see in the comparison chart. I expect that we are likely to
follow a very similar pattern. The 29-32 crash in Elliott Wave Theory (EWT)
terms was a simple a-b-c pattern the 66-83 (16.6 yrs.) bear market which is
of the same cycle degree as the 29-32 bear market was a complex sideways
correction. In EWT there is what is called the rule of alternation. This
rule states that if you have a simple corrective pattern then the next
corrective pattern of equal degree is likely to be complex (sideways)pattern
and vice versa. Because the current correction is of the same degree as the
29-32 and 66-83 bear markets it is likely that this correction will be
similar to the a-b-c pattern of the 29-32 bear market.
It is also my opinion that will continue to follow the basic pattern that
the market exhibited up to 1949 which coincidentally occurred roughly 20
years after the market peak in 29. Add 20 years to the market peak of 2000
and we arrive at the year 2020. Another very interesting and scary overlay
is to take the 1989 peak in the Japanese market and line it up with the 2000
peak in our market. The past 16 years of price movement in our market looks
eerily like theirs when these two peaks are lined up. In reality we will
likely follow a path some where between the two but similar to both in basic
form. I would post this graphic but it is too much hassle, oh what the heck
I will send it to Jeff and maybe he'll pass it along.
I think I have rambled on long enough.
E
- -----Original Message-----
From: Spencer48@aol.com [mailto:Spencer48@aol.com]
Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 12:44 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD Front Page Graphic...
Bill:
I also thought the similarity in the two graphs was remarkable.
Analyzing why this should be so, I've come up with these two (and I believe
valid) analogies:
1) IBD points out consumer confidence in banks nosedived, as many banks
folded-financially suffocating many of those who had accounts with them.
One
of the ways the rampant fear was dealt with was by FDR declaring a bank
holiday (wherein no banks had to give out money at the teller window). This
restored confidence in the banking system (apparently, FDR believed the
banking system was running down the same path as the stock market-and
unthinking fear was holding sway).
Now, I liken this banking situation to the current accounting scandals
we are having. Few investors trust the numbers (especially as compiled by
the big 5 accounting firms). Like FDR in the banking situation, I believe
President Bush will have to take a hand in order to diminish the unblinking
fear investors have toward the stock market. Because, I believe, the
President appreciates this tidal wave of fear, his administration will be
very hard on the miscreants and the malefactors. And once this becomes
apparent, the fear will dissipate.
2) In order to avert more horrible consequences of the Crash, the
government created the SEC. It also passed laws outlawing certain security
activities (eg. I believe "shorting" on upticks was disallowed at this
time).
I liken the government in the 30s of taking the upper hand to ease the
fear of the capitalistic system crushing the ordinary American, to today's
War on Terrorism: In the terrorism case government legislation is needed
to
assure that our democratic/republic can protect us. In the '30s case,
government legislation was needed to protect and re-nourish our capitalistic
system. In both case, necessary legislation was (and is) needed to preserve
our form of government. (Also, notice an interesting sidelight of this
analogy: Around the early 30s the Great Depression began, and in late 1940
WWll was declared. However, today things seem to move quicker nowadays, ie.
there is no 8 year gap, as there was in the 30-40 period, between today's
2-3
Year Crash and The War On Terror).
Also, and this touches on the economic impact of the Great Depression,
what defeated the Great Depression was not legislation (in some cases it
probably helped and in some cases it undoubtedly hurt), but the onslaught of
WWll-as industry and labor geared up to fight it .
That, in my opinion, is why the graphs have similar formations. Also,
IBD mentions a salient point (attention: Ernie): The present Bear has 6
more
months to run before it will equal the duration of the 1930s Bear.
jans
In a message dated 7/3/2002 11:46:50 AM Eastern Daylight Time,
btriffet@earthlink.net writes:
<< Anyone have any thoughts on today's IBD graphic of the 1992-2002 market
overlaid on the 1921-1932 market? While it is highly proclaimed by all that
today's markets are much more protected from disaster (as is the economy),
it's still quite amazing to see how similar the graphs look.
-Bill >>
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<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'>Jans,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'>You make some very valid analogies. I
personally believe that there is even more economic bad news to come. I thi=
nk
we run the very real risk of deflation similar to but hopefully not as bad =
as
what occurred in </span></font><st1:country-region><st1:place><font color=
=3Dblue><span
style=3D'color:blue'>Japan</span></font></st1:place></st1:country-region>=
<font
color=3Dblue><span style=3D'color:blue'>.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>You wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><That, in my opinion, is why the graphs have similar
formations.<span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>Also, <o:p></o:p>=
</span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>IBD mentions a salient point (attention: Ernie):<span
style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>The present Bear has 6 more <o:p><=
/o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>months to run before it will equal the duration of the 1930s Bear.&=
gt;<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'>Before I respond let me again stress =
the
point that I am far better at short term TA than long term TA. So when I am
proven wrong six months from now I don't want anyone rubbing my nose in
it (Dan) </span></font><font color=3Dblue face=3DWingdings><span style=3D'f=
ont-family:
Wingdings;mso-ascii-font-family:"Courier New";mso-hansi-font-family:"Courie=
r New";
color:blue;mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Wingdings'><span
style=3D'mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Wingdings'>J</span></s=
pan></font><font
color=3Dblue><span style=3D'color:blue'>.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'>That said, I do analyze the market fr=
om a
long term perspective as well as a short term perspective. I see March of n=
ext
year as being the earliest point at which we can expect to see a strong mov=
e up
in the general averages. I don't think however, that this will mark the
end of the bear market. I have been looking at a lot of work lately on the
15-17 year cycle and also some other cycle work known as the Benner-Fibonac=
ci
cycle. Both of these areas of cycle work indicate that we will be in a bear
market until approximately 2021. That doesn't mean though that there
won't be some major price advances that will feel like a bull market.<o:p><=
/o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'>As for the comparisons to the 1929-19=
32
crash I as a technician can't argue with what I see in the comparison
chart. I expect that we are likely to follow a very similar pattern. The 29=
- -32
crash in Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) terms was a simple a-b-c pattern the 66-=
83
(16.6 yrs.) bear market which is of the same cycle degree as the 29-32 bear
market was a complex sideways correction. In EWT there is what is called the
rule of alternation. This rule states that if you have a simple corrective
pattern then the next corrective pattern of equal degree is likely to be
complex (sideways)pattern and vice versa. Because the current correction is=
of
the same degree as the 29-32 and 66-83 bear markets it is likely that this
correction will be similar to the a-b-c pattern of the 29-32 bear market.<o=
:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'>It is also my opinion that will conti=
nue to
follow the basic pattern that the market exhibited up to 1949 which
coincidentally occurred roughly 20 years after the market peak in 29. Add 20
years to the market peak of 2000 and we arrive at the year 2020. Another ve=
ry interesting
and scary overlay is to take the 1989 peak in the Japanese market and line =
it
up with the 2000 peak in our market. The past 16 years of price movement in=
our
market looks eerily like theirs when these two peaks are lined up. In reali=
ty
we will likely follow a path some where between the two but similar to both=
in
basic form. I would post this graphic but it is too much hassle, oh what the
heck I will send it to Jeff and maybe he'll pass it along.<o:p></o:p></span=
></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'>I think I have rambled on long enough=
.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'>E<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>-----Original Message-----<br>
From: Spencer48@aol.com [mailto:Spencer48@aol.com] <br>
Sent: </span></font><st1:date Month=3D"7" Day=3D"3" Year=3D"2002">Wednesday=
, July 03,
2002</st1:date> <st1:time Hour=3D"12" Minute=3D"44">12:44 PM</st1:time><br>
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com<br>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD Front Page Graphic...<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>Bill:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>I =
also
thought the similarity in the two graphs was remarkable.<span
style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>Analyzing why this should be so, I've come up with these two (and I
believe <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>valid) analogies:<span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span><o:=
p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>1)=
IBD
points out consumer confidence in banks nosedived, as many banks <o:p></o:p=
></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>folded-financially suffocating many of those who had accounts with
them.<span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>One <o:p></o:p></span><=
/font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>of the ways the rampant fear was dealt with was by FDR declaring a =
bank
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>holiday (wherein no banks had to give out money at the teller
window).<span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>This <o:p></o:p></sp=
an></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>restored confidence in the banking system (apparently, FDR believed=
the
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>banking system was running down the same path as the stock market-a=
nd <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>unthinking fear was holding sway).<span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>=
</span><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>No=
w, I
liken this banking situation to the current accounting scandals <o:p></o:p>=
</span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>we are having.<span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>Few
investors trust the numbers (especially as compiled by <o:p></o:p></span></=
font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>the big 5 accounting firms).<span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>
</span>Like FDR in the banking situation, I believe <o:p></o:p></span></fon=
t></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>President Bush will have to take a hand in order to diminish the
unblinking <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>fear investors have toward the stock market.<span
style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>Because, I believe, the <o:p></o:p=
></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>President appreciates this tidal wave of fear, his administration w=
ill
be <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>very hard on the miscreants and the malefactors.<span
style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>And once this becomes <o:p></o:p><=
/span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>apparent, the fear will dissipate.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>2)=
<span
style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>In order to avert more horrible
consequences of the Crash, the <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>government created the SEC.<span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>
</span>It also passed laws outlawing certain security <o:p></o:p></span></f=
ont></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>activities (eg. I believe "shorting" on upticks was
disallowed at this time). <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span><o:p></o:p></span></f=
ont></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>I =
liken
the government in the 30s of taking the upper hand to ease the <o:p></o:p><=
/span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>fear of the capitalistic system crushing the ordinary American, to
today's <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>War on Terrorism:<span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>In =
the
terrorism case<span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>government leg=
islation
is needed to <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>assure that our democratic/republic can protect us.<span
style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>In the '30s case, <o:p></o:p></spa=
n></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>government legislation was needed to protect and re-nourish our
capitalistic <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>system. In both case, necessary legislation was (and is) needed to
preserve <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>our form of government.<span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>
</span>(Also, notice an interesting sidelight of this <o:p></o:p></span></f=
ont></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>analogy:<span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>Around the e=
arly
30s the Great Depression began, and in late 1940 <o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>WWll was declared.<span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>Ho=
wever,
today things seem to move quicker nowadays, ie. <o:p></o:p></span></font></=
p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>there is no 8 year gap, as there was in the 30-40 period, between
today's 2-3 <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>Year Crash and The War On Terror). <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>Al=
so,
and this touches on the economic impact of the Great Depression, <o:p></o:p=
></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>what defeated the Great Depression was not legislation (in some cas=
es
it <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>probably helped and in some cases it undoubtedly hurt), but the
onslaught of <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>WWll-as industry and labor geared up to fight it .<o:p></o:p></span=
></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>Th=
at, in
my opinion, is why the graphs have similar formations.<span
style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>Also, <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>IBD mentions a salient point (attention: Ernie):<span
style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>The present Bear has 6 more <o:p><=
/o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>months to run before it will equal the duration of the 1930s Bear.<=
o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>jans<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>In a message dated </span></font><st1:date Month=3D"7" Day=3D"3" Ye=
ar=3D"2002">7/3/2002</st1:date>
11:46:50 AM Eastern Daylight Time, <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>btriffet@earthlink.net writes:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><< Anyone have any thoughts on today's IBD graphic of the
1992-2002 market<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>overlaid on the 1921-=
1932
market? While it is highly proclaimed by all that<o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>today's markets are m=
uch
more protected from disaster (as is the economy),<o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>it's still quite amaz=
ing to
see how similar the graphs look.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span><o:p></o:p></span></f=
ont></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>-Bill >><o:p></=
o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>-<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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font-size:
10.0pt'>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"=
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