Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Bill Triffet" <btriffet@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD Front Page Graphic...now O.T.
Date: Wed, 3 Jul 2002 14:53:19 -0700
Next Article (by Date): RE: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD Front Page Graphic... "Robert Gammon"
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Jans, Excellent points.Interesting to note though is that banks and financials still show up on the Stocks In The News section every day. Your point about WWII and manufacturing labor pulling us out of the depression is right on. The problem I see with "the war on terrorism" as catalyst to get things going is this new style of "war" is not nearly as hardware intensive. Yes, they will need more bombs, ammo, etc... but not tanks, planes, or other large capital items. As we found with Afghanistan, the gov't spent millions of cash dollars "paying" foreign gov'ts to assist us. Much more will be spent buying "intelligence". - -Bill - ----- Original Message ----- From: <Spencer48@aol.com> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 10:44 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD Front Page Graphic... > Bill: > > I also thought the similarity in the two graphs was remarkable. > Analyzing why this should be so, I've come up with these two (and I believe > valid) analogies: > > 1) IBD points out consumer confidence in banks nosedived, as many banks > folded-financially suffocating many of those who had accounts with them. One > of the ways the rampant fear was dealt with was by FDR declaring a bank > holiday (wherein no banks had to give out money at the teller window). This > restored confidence in the banking system (apparently, FDR believed the > banking system was running down the same path as the stock market-and > unthinking fear was holding sway). > Now, I liken this banking situation to the current accounting scandals > we are having. Few investors trust the numbers (especially as compiled by > the big 5 accounting firms). Like FDR in the banking situation, I believe > President Bush will have to take a hand in order to diminish the unblinking > fear investors have toward the stock market. Because, I believe, the > President appreciates this tidal wave of fear, his administration will be > very hard on the miscreants and the malefactors. And once this becomes > apparent, the fear will dissipate. > > 2) In order to avert more horrible consequences of the Crash, the > government created the SEC. It also passed laws outlawing certain security > activities (eg. I believe "shorting" on upticks was disallowed at this time). > > I liken the government in the 30s of taking the upper hand to ease the > fear of the capitalistic system crushing the ordinary American, to today's > War on Terrorism: In the terrorism case government legislation is needed to > assure that our democratic/republic can protect us. In the '30s case, > government legislation was needed to protect and re-nourish our capitalistic > system. In both case, necessary legislation was (and is) needed to preserve > our form of government. (Also, notice an interesting sidelight of this > analogy: Around the early 30s the Great Depression began, and in late 1940 > WWll was declared. However, today things seem to move quicker nowadays, ie. > there is no 8 year gap, as there was in the 30-40 period, between today's 2-3 > Year Crash and The War On Terror). > > Also, and this touches on the economic impact of the Great Depression, > what defeated the Great Depression was not legislation (in some cases it > probably helped and in some cases it undoubtedly hurt), but the onslaught of > WWll-as industry and labor geared up to fight it . > > That, in my opinion, is why the graphs have similar formations. Also, > IBD mentions a salient point (attention: Ernie): The present Bear has 6 more > months to run before it will equal the duration of the 1930s Bear. > > jans > > > In a message dated 7/3/2002 11:46:50 AM Eastern Daylight Time, > btriffet@earthlink.net writes: > > << Anyone have any thoughts on today's IBD graphic of the 1992-2002 market > overlaid on the 1921-1932 market? While it is highly proclaimed by all that > today's markets are much more protected from disaster (as is the economy), > it's still quite amazing to see how similar the graphs look. > > -Bill >> > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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