RE: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD Front Page Graphic...

From: "Robert Gammon" <rgammon51@yahoo.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD Front Page Graphic...
Date: Wed, 03 Jul 2002 17:02:23 -0500 (CDT)

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On Wed, 3 Jul 2002 16:34:50 -0500, Hill, Ernie wrote:

> 
>That said, I do analyze the market from a long term perspective as well as a
>short term perspective. I see March of next year as being the earliest point
>at which we can expect to see a strong move up in the general averages. I
>don't think however, that this will mark the end of the bear market. I have
>been looking at a lot of work lately on the 15-17 year cycle and also some
>other cycle work known as the Benner-Fibonacci cycle. Both of these areas of
>cycle work indicate that we will be in a bear market until approximately
>2021. That doesn't mean though that there won't be some major price advances
>that will feel like a bull market.

Ernie,
   The cycles ignore a major demographic shift that will be in place thru 
2010 or so.  The number of 47-49 years old people in the US is growing at a 
very rapid rate.  This curve will remain in an uptrend until about 2010.  
Harry Dent has doen several studies and written several books on this topic.  
The inflation adjusted DJIA or S&P500 indexes have shown a remarkable 
correlation to the number of 47-49 year old people in the US.  The long term 
graph according to Mr Dent's work, shows a steeply rising stock market, 
albeit with the occasional setup such as we have seen over the last couple of 
years, thru about 2010.  The number of 47-49 year olds then falls off, 
reaching a plateau in about 2016.   Then the numbers start rising again in 
about 2022.
   Who is right, cycle theorists, or demographics analysis??  I don't really 
know, but I find the demographic argument to be VERY convincing.  I uploaded 
a scanned copy of one of the Dent graphs to the CANSLIM site several years 
back.  Don't know if its still there.

Robert Gammon
Houston, TX

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