RE: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD Front Page Graphic...

From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD Front Page Graphic...
Date: Wed, 3 Jul 2002 17:27:30 -0500

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Robert,

I have read Mr. Dent's book. It is a very good book and his arguments are
compelling. The cycle work that I have been reviewing calls for a bear
market rally to peak in 2010 right along with the peak forecast that you
just referenced in Mr. Dent's work.

Of course Mr. Dent calls for a much higher peak than what would be expected
from the Benner-Fibonacci cycle or the EWT. I see both arguments as
compelling. But the technical picture of the market as I see it just doesn't
support the much higher peak forecast by Mr. Dent.

E

- -----Original Message-----
From: Robert Gammon [mailto:rgammon51@yahoo.com] 
Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 5:02 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD Front Page Graphic...


Ernie,
   The cycles ignore a major demographic shift that will be in place thru 
2010 or so.  The number of 47-49 years old people in the US is growing at a 
very rapid rate.  This curve will remain in an uptrend until about 2010.  
Harry Dent has doen several studies and written several books on this topic.

The inflation adjusted DJIA or S&P500 indexes have shown a remarkable 
correlation to the number of 47-49 year old people in the US.  The long term

graph according to Mr Dent's work, shows a steeply rising stock market, 
albeit with the occasional setup such as we have seen over the last couple
of 
years, thru about 2010.  The number of 47-49 year olds then falls off, 
reaching a plateau in about 2016.   Then the numbers start rising again in 
about 2022.
   Who is right, cycle theorists, or demographics analysis??  I don't really

know, but I find the demographic argument to be VERY convincing.  I uploaded

a scanned copy of one of the Dent graphs to the CANSLIM site several years 
back.  Don't know if its still there.

Robert Gammon
Houston, TX


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