Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview

From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sun, 7 Jul 2002 16:21:07 -0400

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For Bill and Fred, and the rest of the group,

Thanks for the personal observations, always helps to put some humanity into
the dryness of economics.

Keep in mind that employment is and always has been very much of a lagging
indicator. In fact, it is common for unemployment to continue increasing
during the first months of any economic recovery. What is important to view
is the trend, and for at least 3 to 4 months now, the trend has gone from
getting worse to getting worse at a much slower rate, to actually improving
for the past 3 months. Granted, the improvement at this point is slight, but
the reversal in trend, combined with many other economic indicators, clearly
shows me that the economy is gradually recovering and strengthening. And the
very slowness of that is encouraging to me, as it means a lower risk of
inflation, and a greater likelihood of the Feds holding off on any rate
hikes until even next year some time.

- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Bill Triffet" <btriffet@earthlink.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Sunday, July 07, 2002 4:00 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview


- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Fred Richards" <adrich@gte.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Saturday, July 06, 2002 1:43 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview


> Tom,
>
> The second revision for April shows that there was an actual loss of jobs
in
> April versus the original and first revision numbers.
>
> Now that the expectation of 75,000 new jobs being created was originally
> considered to be only 39,000, I wonder what the first and second revisions
> will do to that number.
>
> In addition, the number of announced layoffs was over 10% higher than the
> previous month.
>
> Doesn't necessarily sound like an improving economy, just more spin.

I'd like to add:
 Having been in the manufacturing sector over 25 years (aerospace
machining), I can tell you we are in the worst economic depression this
sector has ever seen since I've been working. Several of the large US
machine builders are ready to fold. Here in Los Angleles there are an
average of only one to two positions for machinists in the LA Sunday Times
(usually low paid entry level).  Engineering positions are not much better.
Even scarier is the transition out of this sector of the most highy skilled
folks into the service industries. They are leaving in droves. If and when
the manufacturing economy picks up, the cost of goods will be steep as the
supply of skilled workers and available shops and machine tools has dried
up.

So maybe the economy as a whole is picking up - I'm just afraid that
economists include the folks that say," You want fries with that"? as
someone who "manufactures" somthing.

- -Bill


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