Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M update
Date: Thu, 11 Jul 2002 20:38:32 -0500
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In light of today's price action I would like to modify my previous forecast. I am now expecting a short term top on 7-15 or 7-16 in the price range of 964-968. From there I expect the market to return to its precipitous decline. E -----Original Message----- From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com] Sent: Wednesday, July 10, 2002 8:34 PM To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M update Well today certainly did not begin a rally. However, the odds have shifted to very good that we will get a two to three day Rally back up to the 983-985 level. This rebound should terminate on 7-12 or 7-15 after this short term rally expect another precipitous decline. E -----Original Message----- From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com] Sent: Tuesday, July 09, 2002 8:45 PM To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M update The high turn may have been made at 993.59 on 7-8 well short of the forecast 999 level. However, I think we could be in for a two to three day rally back up to the 986-994 range before continuing the current down-trend. This is becoming a tricky turning point to forecast. The weight of the bear is making the high turns very difficult to call. My expectation of a short two to three day rally is only about a 50% probability the other 50% probability is continued movement to the downside. How's that for a forecast the market will either go up or down. Seriously the thing to keep in mind is this, even if the market rallies for a couple of days the dominate trend is still down. The most important information that I see, is the fact that the market is having great difficulty making high turn targets. This implies that there is still strong forces acting on the market to the downside. The next few weeks will likely yield more devastating declines in the general market averages. E - -----Original Message----- From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com] Sent: Sunday, July 07, 2002 1:39 PM To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M update The low turn was made on 7-3 one day outside of the projected turn window. This is not uncommon when dealing with a move as strong as this one. The bottom was actually made at 934.88, we have since rallied 54 plus S&P points in less than two trading days (pretty explosive). The next turn high is due within four trading days of 7-15. The market is at a critical juncture right now. The highest probability for this next turn is for it to occur in the first day of the turn window or one day before the turn window. This translates into 7-8 or 7-9. In either case the price level is the determining factor. 999 on the SPX is a key level. This level represents a .618% retracement of the move from the high of 6-18 to the low of 7-3. The highest probable course for the market to take is for it to reach this level (999) and then to reverse course and continue it's recent slide. However, if this resistance level is taken out convincingly then the market will likely continue up to the next most likely price target of 1033 which will be a complete retracement of the move from 6-18 to 7-3 plus a couple of bonus points, and the turn would likely occur near the midpoint of the turn window. E - -----Original Message----- From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com] Sent: Tuesday, July 02, 2002 8:10 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] M tomorrow If the market continues to go south tomorrow the downside risk is to 933 on the S&P. If the low turn was not made today it will very likely be made tomorrow. We should then get at the very least a tradable rally, and there is strong potential for an explosive move to the upside. E ****************************************************************** This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. If you have received this email in error please notify the sender. ****************************************************************** - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. ****************************************************************** This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. 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