RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom

From: "Mike Gibbons" <mikegibbons@proactech.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom
Date: Thu, 11 Jul 2002 18:33:14 -1000
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Following on from Tom's last paragraph, what we CANSLIM investors really
need is even more doom and gloom so that final capitulation really takes
place and we can start to invest in a market that's moving up. As I see it,
the steeper cliff the sooner the better.

Aloha,

Mike Gibbons
Proactive Technologies, LLC
http://www.proactech.com


- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley
Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 5:31 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom


Rocky,

First, thanks to Mona for putting up the web page with simple links, I was
too tired tonight to figure it out on my own otherwise.

As to the two charts, I have never been a fan of looking at too much history
compressed down into such a tight graph as the 20 year DOW is. On a less
compressed scale, I know I would have found many places where I would have
entered or exited.

As for the S&P500 chart, certainly a failure of the neckline on a head and
shoulders chart is likely to result in a vertical cliff type pattern, and in
a very short time period. That is certainly even more true today, with so
many investors and institutional money managers reading the same articles
and reports I am (all noting this pattern on several major indexes) as well
as more skilled at reading charts than ever before.

The reason cited (major lawsuits against brokerage houses over the
difference in what their analysts were saying publicly in touting stocks vs
what they said internally in emails and other documents) is hardly news. If
this alone was going to break the markets down so severely, I would have
expected it to occur months ago when the evidence against Merrill Lynch in
the case against it by NY state was made public. The $100 million fine
already paid is likely to be chicken feed to the totals ML will eventually
pay out to both client investors as well as to shareholders. And I cannot
believe they are the only one facing this kind of liability.  But I also
don't believe that major wirehouses had the kind of sterling reputation they
held years ago, so it's not so much a shock that they have been feeding us
BS as it is simply proof that we were correct in not trusting their
recommendations all along.

Far more damaging is the loss of trust and confidence in financial
accounting with companies like Merck. A continuation of news and revelations
about respected blue chip companies diddling the financial books would be
more harmful, IMO.

I remain convinced that both the economy and corp earnings are beginning to
show definable and positive signs of recovery and improvement. The question
for me is how long it will take to convince the investment community that
this can continue.  This bear market may eventually be reversed thru a
stealth bull rally within a bear market, that quietly becomes a bull market
unnoticed by many / most analysts and market commentaries.

For now, the more bearish sentiment, the better I like it. Things are still
too rosy, fear level needs to be heightened.

- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Rocky Sanghvi" <rs@mylodestar.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 6:27 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom


http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentar
y&content_idx=13396

Can any technical folks on this board confirm or deny what this author is
saying about the long term S&P chart?  Also what are you thoughts on the 20
year DOW chart from a technical perspective?

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=djia&sid=164
3&o_symb=djia&freq=2&time=20

Thanks
Rocky


- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Edward McDonough
Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 3:40 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] what a crazy day


Volatility is here to stay.  That's what bear markets do.  Play the game
to win, HUG THE BEAR!! Gold is Great!!

Call me crazy.
ED

- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of
michael_niemotka@baxter.com
Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 4:15 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] what a crazy day

Today was NOT for the faint of heart........when will M stabilize?

Guess it gives me more time to work on the next rev of screen
compiler.....


Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engineer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Round Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael_niemotka@baxter.com



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