RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom

From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom
Date: Fri, 12 Jul 2002 08:36:42 -0500
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First I will address the article and the H&S chart pattern of the S&P. The
H&S pattern is unquestionably obvious in the chart. What the author says
about the pattern is true to the best of my knowledge. One positive note
here is that H&S patterns aren't super reliable. I think their reliability
is somewhere along the lines of 60-65%. Someone may need to correct me on
this one.

As for the fundamental problems that could precipitate such a collapse, take
your pick there is plenty to choose from.

Back to the charts and the technical condition of the market. We have
already discussed recently the similarity of 29-32 price action to that of
our present market, and I mentioned and tried unsuccessfully to post a chart
of the S&P overlaid on the Japanese market with a 16 year shift. In both
cases the similarities are striking and frightening. I also spoke about the
15-17 year cycle (which some believe varies between 14-20 years) I am
convinced of the validity of this cycle and believe it has peaked in 2000.

I have also applied my stuff to look at the S&P long term. It too paints a
very scary picture. My short term stuff is continuing to result in lows that
come later than expected and hit or exceed my low targets. The short term
highs are occurring earlier than projected and finding it more and more
difficult to even reach my low targets for them. With my method this tells
me that there is strong underlying weakness in the market even more than
what is obvious to anyone who looks at a chart. Just from looking at what I
do the evidence is building that there could be an acceleration in the rate
of decline, and it could be about to happen very soon. The earliest time
frame that my method is forecasting for a bottom to the down-trend that
began in March of this year is March of next year, with a bottom in
September of 2003 being more likely.

The bottom line is this, from a purely technical perspective everything I
see from my work to other peoples work points to a 29-32 style collapse in
equity prices. However, have you ever noticed how when you get a new model
of car you start seeing the same model car  everywhere. I can only hope that
this is the same phenomena that I am experiencing with regards to my
technical analysis. I am not as eager as some of you are to see a cliff
style collapse in the equity markets. I fear that if this scenario is indeed
played out that there will be serious economic consequences to be suffered.

As for the DOW 20 year chart I don't follow the DOW so I would have to start
from scratch to give an assessment of its condition. Since I don't like to
give un-researched opinions and I don't have the time to do the research it
would be best for me not to comment on this chart.

E


 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Mona Guarino [mailto:webmaster@design21.com] 
Sent:	Friday, July 12, 2002 12:37 AM
To:	canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject:	RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom

Ernie,

try: www.design21.com/canslim/doom.html

I put a very simple page on my server with the links. You should be able to
get to it easier.

I, too, am very interested to hear your comments and value your sharing your
market info.

- -- Mona

> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Hill, Ernie
> Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 7:12 PM
> To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom
>
>
> I have followed your instructions to the letter and I keep getting the
> Prudent Bear commentary archives.
>
> E
>
>  -----Original Message-----
> From: 	Mike Gibbons [mailto:mikegibbons@proactech.com]
> Sent:	Thursday, July 11, 2002 8:02 PM
> To:	canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject:	RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom
>
> Ernie, Outlook wraps the links and makes them ineffective.
>
> To correct the problem, I do the following:
>
> 1. Click "forward" - this gives an editable orm of the message
> 2. Move cursor to the beginning odf the second line of the link and hit
> backsapce - this will put thetwo parts of the  link back together
> 3. click the link
> 4. delete the editable message.
>
> Hope that helps. Looking forward to your comments on this topic.
> Thanks for
> sharing all your other M wisdom
>
> Aloha,
>
> Mike Gibbons
> Proactive Technologies, LLC
> http://www.proactech.com
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Hill, Ernie
> Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 2:19 PM
> To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom
>
>
> Your first link does not lead to a chart and I am unable to open
> the second
> one.
>
> E
>
>  -----Original Message-----
> From: 	Rocky Sanghvi [mailto:rs@mylodestar.com]
> Sent:	Thursday, July 11, 2002 5:27 PM
> To:	canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject:	RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom
>
> http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest
> +Commentar
> y&content_idx=13396
>
> Can any technical folks on this board confirm or deny what this author is
> saying about the long term S&P chart?  Also what are you thoughts
> on the 20
> year DOW chart from a technical perspective?
>
> http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=dj
> ia&sid=164
> 3&o_symb=djia&freq=2&time=20
>
> Thanks
> Rocky
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Edward McDonough
> Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 3:40 PM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] what a crazy day
>
>
> Volatility is here to stay.  That's what bear markets do.  Play the game
> to win, HUG THE BEAR!! Gold is Great!!
>
> Call me crazy.
> ED
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of
> michael_niemotka@baxter.com
> Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 4:15 PM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: [CANSLIM] what a crazy day
>
> Today was NOT for the faint of heart........when will M stabilize?
>
> Guess it gives me more time to work on the next rev of screen
> compiler.....
>
>
> Mike Niemotka , PE
> Sr. Principal Engineer
> Baxter Healthcare Corporation
> Route 120 & Wilson Road
> Round Lake, IL 60073
> Tel (847) 270-4075
> Fax (847) 270-4525
> michael_niemotka@baxter.com
>
>
>
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