Re: [CANSLIM] Boomer Babies

From: Spencer48@aol.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Boomer Babies
Date: Fri, 12 Jul 2002 14:30:54 EDT
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Winston and Duke:

     IBD's Trend and Innovations (Page 2) of 7/11/02 confirms the belief that 
the baby boom trend is expected to have an impact on individual stocks in the 
market.  Here is what it said (the relevant passages):

     "Doctors gave out 146 prescriptions per 100 vistis in '99.  That's up 
34% from '85.  That trend, spurred largely by an aging population is likely 
to result in a doubling of drug spending in the next 5 years.  Psychiatrists 
had the biggest increase in prescription rates, 117%."

     To me this is surprising (the psychiatrist part), and doesn't bode well 
for my upcoming goldie-oldie years-although, come to think of it-this may 
indicate that more drugs are now available (and are being prescribed) to 
ameliorate dementia and Alzheimers.

jans




In a message dated 7/11/2002 8:41:06 AM Eastern Daylight Time, 
wlittle1@peoplepc.com writes:

<< Duke:
 
 I believe that you are on the right track.
 
 The concern that I have with "health care/pharma" type of companies is these
 appear to be under the magnifying glass now, and all the warts and moles are
 coming into view. It makes me believe that many of what one may view as the
 obvious potential leaders here may end up as a small division of some
 unknown company after the mob is through with them. For example, six months
 ago, BMY was clearly a leader in drugs. Today all that I hear is how much
 they juggled the books and clinical studies and the price drops day by day.
 
 The high end housing still looks good, and TOL is the leader in that group.
 The builders of houses is still very fragmented, as the largest builder in
 the country only controls 2 to 3% of the total market.  Much consolidation
 action is in place as the larger companies buy out several of the smaller
 ones.
 BBBY will go along with housing cycling.
 
 
 
 ----- Original Message -----
 From: "Duke Miller" <dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>
 To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
 Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 8:24 AM
 Subject: [CANSLIM] Boomer Babies
 
 
 > WON would tell you you're correct about the market telling us (hopefully
 > before "the middle of the next bull market") the identity of the next
 > leading groups.
 >
 > As some of you know, because I've leaned this way more than once on this
 > list, I'm mining for companies that can turn big profits from the wave
 > of boomers heading for retirement.  I call these my Boomer Babies.  For
 > instance, right now, you're seeing boomers drive the high-end housing
 > markets, and don't forget the impact of their off-spring in this search,
 > i.e., HOTT, et al.
 >
 > A recent Smart Money column listed some Boomer Babies; a list of "...the
 > best names in each of the major health-care industries: pharmacy,
 > devices, biotech, hospitals, drug distributors, and health-care
 > conglomerates."  They listed AMGN, BAX, CAH, JNJ, NVS, PFE, THC. The
 > article did not mention boomers, but my assumption is healthcare is very
 > much boomer driven and that will only increase as they age. Granted,
 > these are not exactly "N" stocks, but very soon they could meet the
 > criteria for CAN SLIM.  I quote again from the article: "Two years ago,
 > health-care stocks were pricey, but now much of the sector is at that
 > sweet spot where fundamentals are turning up just as stock prices are
 > bottoming out." (This was written June 24, well before the "bottom"
 > we're at now!)
 >
 > I guess the problem, as it relates to CAN SLIM, is boomer babies more
 > likely will be spread across numerous industry groups, and as we say in
 > today's Corner, next to markets, the groups rule.  Most of the time,
 > anyway.
 >
 > So, that's the mine I'm panning for gold in at this time whilst perched
 > atop my stash of cash.  If you have any suggestions, I'll be gladly be
 > the repository for Boomer Babies and keep a list going.  (During the
 > coming week I will be sorting through six months of IBD's, scouring New
 > America and other areas for some gems to add to my list.)
 >
 > Duke >>

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