Re: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom

From: "Winston Little" <wlittle1@peoplepc.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom
Date: Fri, 12 Jul 2002 14:12:28 -0400
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Rocky:

Clearly we should all be playing baseball.


- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Rocky Sanghvi" <rs@mylodestar.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Friday, July 12, 2002 1:56 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom


> Ernie,
>
> Thanks for the insight.  Its truly appreciated.  If this scenario does
come
> to pass - the ramifications for all the invested "common folk" - from the
> non-affluent class of people who believed that they need to squirell away
> 50-100 a month into their retirement programs to the affluent baby boomers
> who still havent touched their IRAs, Roths or 401Ks -  will be massive.
>
> The dollar continues to be low with implications for our structural
> finance - interests rates, inflation and the economy.  Mortages and easy
> money continue to multiply - worse yet - credit availability is now
> contingent on the abilities of the "credit-risks" to pay back.  For
> creditors to stay in business they must constantly make more in interest
> payments than they lose in defaults.  While this is possible when interest
> rates are low - watch out - if the interest rates are forced upwards by
the
> falling dollar.  Also, there are still significant numbers of "cooked
books"
> out there.  Accounting is not black and white - someone said recently :).
>
> All this comes as the baby boomers head of into retirement.  Maybe I am
just
> a chronic worrier not taking my medication, but those charts (S&P and Dow)
> are pretty compelling.  I appreciate everyone's feedback and while these
are
> not CANSLIM posts - a discussion on market conditions is healthy.
>
> By the way, did anyone see the CNBC article on baseball salaries?  I didnt
> know that the average baseball salary in 1969 was only 25K.  Its now
2.5mil.
>
> Rocky
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Hill, Ernie
> Sent: Friday, July 12, 2002 9:37 AM
> To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom
>
>
> First I will address the article and the H&S chart pattern of the S&P. The
> H&S pattern is unquestionably obvious in the chart. What the author says
> about the pattern is true to the best of my knowledge. One positive note
> here is that H&S patterns aren't super reliable. I think their reliability
> is somewhere along the lines of 60-65%. Someone may need to correct me on
> this one.
>
> As for the fundamental problems that could precipitate such a collapse,
take
> your pick there is plenty to choose from.
>
> Back to the charts and the technical condition of the market. We have
> already discussed recently the similarity of 29-32 price action to that of
> our present market, and I mentioned and tried unsuccessfully to post a
chart
> of the S&P overlaid on the Japanese market with a 16 year shift. In both
> cases the similarities are striking and frightening. I also spoke about
the
> 15-17 year cycle (which some believe varies between 14-20 years) I am
> convinced of the validity of this cycle and believe it has peaked in 2000.
>
> I have also applied my stuff to look at the S&P long term. It too paints a
> very scary picture. My short term stuff is continuing to result in lows
that
> come later than expected and hit or exceed my low targets. The short term
> highs are occurring earlier than projected and finding it more and more
> difficult to even reach my low targets for them. With my method this tells
> me that there is strong underlying weakness in the market even more than
> what is obvious to anyone who looks at a chart. Just from looking at what
I
> do the evidence is building that there could be an acceleration in the
rate
> of decline, and it could be about to happen very soon. The earliest time
> frame that my method is forecasting for a bottom to the down-trend that
> began in March of this year is March of next year, with a bottom in
> September of 2003 being more likely.
>
> The bottom line is this, from a purely technical perspective everything I
> see from my work to other peoples work points to a 29-32 style collapse in
> equity prices. However, have you ever noticed how when you get a new model
> of car you start seeing the same model car  everywhere. I can only hope
that
> this is the same phenomena that I am experiencing with regards to my
> technical analysis. I am not as eager as some of you are to see a cliff
> style collapse in the equity markets. I fear that if this scenario is
indeed
> played out that there will be serious economic consequences to be
suffered.
>
> As for the DOW 20 year chart I don't follow the DOW so I would have to
start
> from scratch to give an assessment of its condition. Since I don't like to
> give un-researched opinions and I don't have the time to do the research
it
> would be best for me not to comment on this chart.
>
> E
>
>
>  -----Original Message-----
> From: Mona Guarino [mailto:webmaster@design21.com]
> Sent: Friday, July 12, 2002 12:37 AM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom
>
> Ernie,
>
> try: www.design21.com/canslim/doom.html
>
> I put a very simple page on my server with the links. You should be able
to
> get to it easier.
>
> I, too, am very interested to hear your comments and value your sharing
your
> market info.
>
> -- Mona
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Hill, Ernie
> > Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 7:12 PM
> > To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
> > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom
> >
> >
> > I have followed your instructions to the letter and I keep getting the
> > Prudent Bear commentary archives.
> >
> > E
> >
> >  -----Original Message-----
> > From: Mike Gibbons [mailto:mikegibbons@proactech.com]
> > Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 8:02 PM
> > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom
> >
> > Ernie, Outlook wraps the links and makes them ineffective.
> >
> > To correct the problem, I do the following:
> >
> > 1. Click "forward" - this gives an editable orm of the message
> > 2. Move cursor to the beginning odf the second line of the link and hit
> > backsapce - this will put thetwo parts of the  link back together
> > 3. click the link
> > 4. delete the editable message.
> >
> > Hope that helps. Looking forward to your comments on this topic.
> > Thanks for
> > sharing all your other M wisdom
> >
> > Aloha,
> >
> > Mike Gibbons
> > Proactive Technologies, LLC
> > http://www.proactech.com
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Hill, Ernie
> > Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 2:19 PM
> > To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
> > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom
> >
> >
> > Your first link does not lead to a chart and I am unable to open
> > the second
> > one.
> >
> > E
> >
> >  -----Original Message-----
> > From: Rocky Sanghvi [mailto:rs@mylodestar.com]
> > Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 5:27 PM
> > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom
> >
> > http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest
> > +Commentar
> > y&content_idx=13396
> >
> > Can any technical folks on this board confirm or deny what this author
is
> > saying about the long term S&P chart?  Also what are you thoughts
> > on the 20
> > year DOW chart from a technical perspective?
> >
> > http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=dj
> > ia&sid=164
> > 3&o_symb=djia&freq=2&time=20
> >
> > Thanks
> > Rocky
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Edward McDonough
> > Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 3:40 PM
> > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] what a crazy day
> >
> >
> > Volatility is here to stay.  That's what bear markets do.  Play the game
> > to win, HUG THE BEAR!! Gold is Great!!
> >
> > Call me crazy.
> > ED
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of
> > michael_niemotka@baxter.com
> > Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 4:15 PM
> > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > Subject: [CANSLIM] what a crazy day
> >
> > Today was NOT for the faint of heart........when will M stabilize?
> >
> > Guess it gives me more time to work on the next rev of screen
> > compiler.....
> >
> >
> > Mike Niemotka , PE
> > Sr. Principal Engineer
> > Baxter Healthcare Corporation
> > Route 120 & Wilson Road
> > Round Lake, IL 60073
> > Tel (847) 270-4075
> > Fax (847) 270-4525
> > michael_niemotka@baxter.com
> >
> >
> >
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