Re: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom

From: "zillagirl" <zillagirl@email.msn.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom
Date: Fri, 12 Jul 2002 15:28:30 -0700
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There is an article at CBSMarketwatch.com pertaining to tops and
bottoms.Written by Paul Desmond.He won the Charles Dow award this year for
his research on TOPS and BOTTOMS. Its based on his 90/90 theory using up/
down volume.I don't know how to send the URL so here is how to get to it if
interested.       Go to  web site above. About 1/2 way down page click on
link about 90/90 theory. On next 2 or 3 pages click on 90/90 link within
article. The article was written on 7/2/02. He says we have hit a couple of
close days in the last week.  It left me hopeful.  Would like feedback if
anyone reads..Thanks zillagirl
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Rocky Sanghvi" <rs@mylodestar.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Friday, July 12, 2002 10:56 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom


> Ernie,
>
> Thanks for the insight.  Its truly appreciated.  If this scenario does
come
> to pass - the ramifications for all the invested "common folk" - from the
> non-affluent class of people who believed that they need to squirell away
> 50-100 a month into their retirement programs to the affluent baby boomers
> who still havent touched their IRAs, Roths or 401Ks -  will be massive.
>
> The dollar continues to be low with implications for our structural
> finance - interests rates, inflation and the economy.  Mortages and easy
> money continue to multiply - worse yet - credit availability is now
> contingent on the abilities of the "credit-risks" to pay back.  For
> creditors to stay in business they must constantly make more in interest
> payments than they lose in defaults.  While this is possible when interest
> rates are low - watch out - if the interest rates are forced upwards by
the
> falling dollar.  Also, there are still significant numbers of "cooked
books"
> out there.  Accounting is not black and white - someone said recently :).
>
> All this comes as the baby boomers head of into retirement.  Maybe I am
just
> a chronic worrier not taking my medication, but those charts (S&P and Dow)
> are pretty compelling.  I appreciate everyone's feedback and while these
are
> not CANSLIM posts - a discussion on market conditions is healthy.
>
> By the way, did anyone see the CNBC article on baseball salaries?  I didnt
> know that the average baseball salary in 1969 was only 25K.  Its now
2.5mil.
>
> Rocky
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Hill, Ernie
> Sent: Friday, July 12, 2002 9:37 AM
> To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom
>
>
> First I will address the article and the H&S chart pattern of the S&P. The
> H&S pattern is unquestionably obvious in the chart. What the author says
> about the pattern is true to the best of my knowledge. One positive note
> here is that H&S patterns aren't super reliable. I think their reliability
> is somewhere along the lines of 60-65%. Someone may need to correct me on
> this one.
>
> As for the fundamental problems that could precipitate such a collapse,
take
> your pick there is plenty to choose from.
>
> Back to the charts and the technical condition of the market. We have
> already discussed recently the similarity of 29-32 price action to that of
> our present market, and I mentioned and tried unsuccessfully to post a
chart
> of the S&P overlaid on the Japanese market with a 16 year shift. In both
> cases the similarities are striking and frightening. I also spoke about
the
> 15-17 year cycle (which some believe varies between 14-20 years) I am
> convinced of the validity of this cycle and believe it has peaked in 2000.
>
> I have also applied my stuff to look at the S&P long term. It too paints a
> very scary picture. My short term stuff is continuing to result in lows
that
> come later than expected and hit or exceed my low targets. The short term
> highs are occurring earlier than projected and finding it more and more
> difficult to even reach my low targets for them. With my method this tells
> me that there is strong underlying weakness in the market even more than
> what is obvious to anyone who looks at a chart. Just from looking at what
I
> do the evidence is building that there could be an acceleration in the
rate
> of decline, and it could be about to happen very soon. The earliest time
> frame that my method is forecasting for a bottom to the down-trend that
> began in March of this year is March of next year, with a bottom in
> September of 2003 being more likely.
>
> The bottom line is this, from a purely technical perspective everything I
> see from my work to other peoples work points to a 29-32 style collapse in
> equity prices. However, have you ever noticed how when you get a new model
> of car you start seeing the same model car  everywhere. I can only hope
that
> this is the same phenomena that I am experiencing with regards to my
> technical analysis. I am not as eager as some of you are to see a cliff
> style collapse in the equity markets. I fear that if this scenario is
indeed
> played out that there will be serious economic consequences to be
suffered.
>
> As for the DOW 20 year chart I don't follow the DOW so I would have to
start
> from scratch to give an assessment of its condition. Since I don't like to
> give un-researched opinions and I don't have the time to do the research
it
> would be best for me not to comment on this chart.
>
> E
>
>
>  -----Original Message-----
> From: Mona Guarino [mailto:webmaster@design21.com]
> Sent: Friday, July 12, 2002 12:37 AM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom
>
> Ernie,
>
> try: www.design21.com/canslim/doom.html
>
> I put a very simple page on my server with the links. You should be able
to
> get to it easier.
>
> I, too, am very interested to hear your comments and value your sharing
your
> market info.
>
> -- Mona
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Hill, Ernie
> > Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 7:12 PM
> > To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
> > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom
> >
> >
> > I have followed your instructions to the letter and I keep getting the
> > Prudent Bear commentary archives.
> >
> > E
> >
> >  -----Original Message-----
> > From: Mike Gibbons [mailto:mikegibbons@proactech.com]
> > Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 8:02 PM
> > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom
> >
> > Ernie, Outlook wraps the links and makes them ineffective.
> >
> > To correct the problem, I do the following:
> >
> > 1. Click "forward" - this gives an editable orm of the message
> > 2. Move cursor to the beginning odf the second line of the link and hit
> > backsapce - this will put thetwo parts of the  link back together
> > 3. click the link
> > 4. delete the editable message.
> >
> > Hope that helps. Looking forward to your comments on this topic.
> > Thanks for
> > sharing all your other M wisdom
> >
> > Aloha,
> >
> > Mike Gibbons
> > Proactive Technologies, LLC
> > http://www.proactech.com
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Hill, Ernie
> > Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 2:19 PM
> > To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
> > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom
> >
> >
> > Your first link does not lead to a chart and I am unable to open
> > the second
> > one.
> >
> > E
> >
> >  -----Original Message-----
> > From: Rocky Sanghvi [mailto:rs@mylodestar.com]
> > Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 5:27 PM
> > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Doom and Gloom
> >
> > http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest
> > +Commentar
> > y&content_idx=13396
> >
> > Can any technical folks on this board confirm or deny what this author
is
> > saying about the long term S&P chart?  Also what are you thoughts
> > on the 20
> > year DOW chart from a technical perspective?
> >
> > http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=dj
> > ia&sid=164
> > 3&o_symb=djia&freq=2&time=20
> >
> > Thanks
> > Rocky
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Edward McDonough
> > Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 3:40 PM
> > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] what a crazy day
> >
> >
> > Volatility is here to stay.  That's what bear markets do.  Play the game
> > to win, HUG THE BEAR!! Gold is Great!!
> >
> > Call me crazy.
> > ED
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of
> > michael_niemotka@baxter.com
> > Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 4:15 PM
> > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > Subject: [CANSLIM] what a crazy day
> >
> > Today was NOT for the faint of heart........when will M stabilize?
> >
> > Guess it gives me more time to work on the next rev of screen
> > compiler.....
> >
> >
> > Mike Niemotka , PE
> > Sr. Principal Engineer
> > Baxter Healthcare Corporation
> > Route 120 & Wilson Road
> > Round Lake, IL 60073
> > Tel (847) 270-4075
> > Fax (847) 270-4525
> > michael_niemotka@baxter.com
> >
> >
> >
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