[CANSLIM] M - fasten your seatbelt

From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] M - fasten your seatbelt
Date: Sat, 13 Jul 2002 20:22:04 -0500

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Friends this forecast is made with trepidation. It is not influenced by
anything that we have recently discussed or anyone else's work. This
forecast comes purely from what I see in the Market from my own system.

It is obvious that the last turn high forecast for the 7-15 turn window
actually occurred on 7-8 at a price level of 993.59 roughly 5.5 points shy
of the forecast level of 999. When a high turn comes early outside the turn
window and short of the forecast target it is a signal that the market is
very weak and that an acceleration of the decline is likely.

The bounce that I am expecting is a common reaction to the "missed" turn
window. Often when a turn comes early outside the window prices will bounce
near the highest probability turn date. In this case 7-15. I have recently
forecast the 964-968 level for the top of this bounce. After doing more work
today it appears that the 946 level is an equally likely target for the top
of this bounce. Look for these two key levels and expect the market to turn
dramatically downward from one of them. This will likely happen Monday or
Tuesday.

From there the next low turn is due in the time window around 8-13 expect
this turn to occur late in the window probably 8-15 or 8-16. My current
target range for this low turn is 759-782. I know this is almost
unthinkable. If my high bounce target of 964-968 is met this could be a 20%
decline in a month.

If you are long exercise extreme caution. Dan F enjoy yourself.

I feel compelled to add a disclaimer. I am not an investment advisor. This
is merely my opinion based on my observations of the market. Before making
any investment decisions please seek out a competent investment advisor,
someone like your spouse.

E


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