Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M - fasten your seatbelt
Date: Sat, 13 Jul 2002 21:38:35 -0500
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Gee-Wiz Tom! Was this a telcom VR fund?
E
- -----Original Message-----
From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net]
Sent: Saturday, July 13, 2002 9:31 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - fasten your seatbelt
real money, IRA and margin acct. The VR Fund only has $4K left out of a
million.
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Gene Ricci <mailto:genr@swbell.net>
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com <mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Saturday, July 13, 2002 10:34 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - fasten your seatbelt
Tom, is this your real account or the VA account? Not to be nosy but real
money seems risky right now... academically it's the time to buy.... but
real money is hard to come by, let alone margin.. IMHO.
Gene
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Tom Worley <mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net>
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com <mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Saturday, July 13, 2002 8:31 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - fasten your seatbelt
sure hope you are wrong, Ernie, I am long and remaining so, fully invested
and on margin. Sold one small position (last of my 4th trip on EPIQ) and
already have buy orders in for Monday for that cash and the rest of my
margin buying power. I see some evidence of a bottom forming, and with
earnings starting next week, and very oversold conditions, I believe I can
make some more money.
Not an "M" for most, best to sit in cash and wait for the markets to confirm
a bottom, as well as an uptrend (which may well not last). But I like being
at the front of the pack, at least on the way up.
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Hill, Ernie" < Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com <mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com> >
To: < canslim@lists.xmission.com <mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com> >
Cc: "'DanC'" < danc@compuall.net <mailto:danc@compuall.net> >
Sent: Saturday, July 13, 2002 9:22 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] M - fasten your seatbelt
Friends this forecast is made with trepidation. It is not influenced by
anything that we have recently discussed or anyone else's work. This
forecast comes purely from what I see in the Market from my own system.
It is obvious that the last turn high forecast for the 7-15 turn window
actually occurred on 7-8 at a price level of 993.59 roughly 5.5 points shy
of the forecast level of 999. When a high turn comes early outside the turn
window and short of the forecast target it is a signal that the market is
very weak and that an acceleration of the decline is likely.
The bounce that I am expecting is a common reaction to the "missed" turn
window. Often when a turn comes early outside the window prices will bounce
near the highest probability turn date. In this case 7-15. I have recently
forecast the 964-968 level for the top of this bounce. After doing more work
today it appears that the 946 level is an equally likely target for the top
of this bounce. Look for these two key levels and expect the market to turn
dramatically downward from one of them. This will likely happen Monday or
Tuesday.
From there the next low turn is due in the time window around 8-13 expect
this turn to occur late in the window probably 8-15 or 8-16. My current
target range for this low turn is 759-782. I know this is almost
unthinkable. If my high bounce target of 964-968 is met this could be a 20%
decline in a month.
If you are long exercise extreme caution. Dan F enjoy yourself.
I feel compelled to add a disclaimer. I am not an investment advisor. This
is merely my opinion based on my observations of the market. Before making
any investment decisions please seek out a competent investment advisor,
someone like your spouse.
E
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<div class=3DSection1>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle17><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Gee-=
Wiz Tom!
Was this a telcom VR fund?<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle17><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><![i=
f !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle17><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>E<o:=
p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle17><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><![i=
f !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:blac=
k'>-----Original
Message-----<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b> Tom Worley
[mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net]<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Saturday, July 13, 200=
2 9:31
PM<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> canslim@lists.xmission.c=
om<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> Re: [CANSLIM] M - f=
asten
your seatbelt</span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Time=
s New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p><=
/o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>real
money, IRA and margin acct. The VR Fund only has $4K left out of a million.=
</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> =
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>-----
Original Message -----=20
<div style=3D'font-color:black'></span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in;background:#E4E4E4'><b><font=
size=3D2
color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Aria=
l;
color:black;font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font size=3D2 color=
=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
> <a
href=3D"mailto:genr@swbell.net" title=3D"genr@swbell.net">Gene Ricci</a> </=
span></font><font
size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fa=
mily:Arial;
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><b><font size=3D2 color=3Db=
lack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
font-weight:bold'>To:</span></font></b><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3D=
Arial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> <a
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com" title=3D"canslim@lists.xmission.=
com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</a>
</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font=
- -size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span><=
/font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><b><font size=3D2 color=3Db=
lack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></font></b><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=
=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> Saturday, July 13=
, 2002
10:34 PM</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windo=
wtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><b><font size=3D2 color=3Db=
lack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></font></b><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
> Re:
[CANSLIM] M - fasten your seatbelt</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><![if=
!supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]></span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Comic Sans MS"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic S=
ans MS";
color:black'>Tom, is this your real account or the VA account? Not to=
be
nosy but real money seems risky right now... academically it's the time to
buy.... but real money is hard to come by, let alone margin.. IMHO.</span><=
/font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> =
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Comic Sans MS"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Comic S=
ans MS";
color:black'>Gene</span></font><font color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:bla=
ck;
mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> =
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<div style=3D'border:none;border-left:solid black 1.5pt;padding:0in 0in 0in=
4.0pt'>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt=
:auto;
margin-left:39.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>-----
Original Message ----- </span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DAr=
ial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windo=
wtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt=
:auto;
margin-left:39.75pt;background:#E4E4E4;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:soli=
d black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><b><font size=3D2 color=3Dbl=
ack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
font-weight:bold'>
<div style=3D'font-color:black'>From:</span></font></b><font size=3D2 color=
=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
> <a
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net" title=3D"stkguru@bellsouth.net">Tom W=
orley</a>
</span></font></div>
<font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;f=
ont-family:
Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt=
:auto;
margin-left:39.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><b><font size=3D2 color=3Dbl=
ack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
font-weight:bold'>To:</span></font></b><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3D=
Arial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> <a
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com" title=3D"canslim@lists.xmission.=
com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</a>
</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font=
- -size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span><=
/font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt=
:auto;
margin-left:39.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><b><font size=3D2 color=3Dbl=
ack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></font></b><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=
=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> Saturday, July 13=
, 2002
8:31 PM</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windo=
wtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt=
:auto;
margin-left:39.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><b><font size=3D2 color=3Dbl=
ack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></font></b><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
> Re:
[CANSLIM] M - fasten your seatbelt</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt=
:auto;
margin-left:39.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><![if=
!supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]></span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt=
:auto;
margin-left:39.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>sure =
hope you
are wrong, Ernie, I am long and remaining so, fully invested<br>
and on margin. Sold one small position (last of my 4th trip on EPIQ) and<br>
already have buy orders in for Monday for that cash and the rest of my<br>
margin buying power. I see some evidence of a bottom forming, and wit=
h<br>
earnings starting next week, and very oversold conditions, I believe I can<=
br>
make some more money.<br>
<br>
Not an "M" for most, best to sit in cash and wait for the markets=
to
confirm<br>
a bottom, as well as an uptrend (which may well not last). But I like being=
<br>
at the front of the pack, at least on the way up.<br>
<br>
- ----- Original Message -----<br>
From: "Hill, Ernie" <<a href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com">=
Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com</a>><br>
To: <<a href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmissio=
n.com</a>><br>
Cc: "'DanC'" <<a href=3D"mailto:danc@compuall.net">danc@compua=
ll.net</a>><br>
Sent: Saturday, July 13, 2002 9:22 PM<br>
Subject: [CANSLIM] M - fasten your seatbelt<br>
<br>
<br>
Friends this forecast is made with trepidation. It is not influenced by<br>
anything that we have recently discussed or anyone else's work. This<br>
forecast comes purely from what I see in the Market from my own system.<br>
<br>
It is obvious that the last turn high forecast for the 7-15 turn window<br>
actually occurred on 7-8 at a price level of 993.59 roughly 5.5 points shy<=
br>
of the forecast level of 999. When a high turn comes early outside the turn=
<br>
window and short of the forecast target it is a signal that the market is<b=
r>
very weak and that an acceleration of the decline is likely.<br>
<br>
The bounce that I am expecting is a common reaction to the "missed&quo=
t;
turn<br>
window. Often when a turn comes early outside the window prices will bounce=
<br>
near the highest probability turn date. In this case 7-15. I have recently<=
br>
forecast the 964-968 level for the top of this bounce. After doing more wor=
k<br>
today it appears that the 946 level is an equally likely target for the top=
<br>
of this bounce. Look for these two key levels and expect the market to turn=
<br>
dramatically downward from one of them. This will likely happen Monday or<b=
r>
Tuesday.<br>
<br>
From there the next low turn is due in the time window around 8-13 expect<b=
r>
this turn to occur late in the window probably 8-15 or 8-16. My current<br>
target range for this low turn is 759-782. I know this is almost<br>
unthinkable. If my high bounce target of 964-968 is met this could be a 20%=
<br>
decline in a month.<br>
<br>
If you are long exercise extreme caution. Dan F enjoy yourself.<br>
<br>
I feel compelled to add a disclaimer. I am not an investment advisor. This<=
br>
is merely my opinion based on my observations of the market. Before making<=
br>
any investment decisions please seek out a competent investment advisor,<br>
someone like your spouse.<br>
<br>
E<br>
<br>
<br>
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