RE: [CANSLIM] Gloom and Doom

From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Gloom and Doom
Date: Sat, 13 Jul 2002 22:17:06 -0500

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Patrick,

I am inclined to agree with your views, but I think it is the bursting of
the credit bubble precipitated by a collapsing stock market that will take
out the housing and consumption bubbles.

DEFLATION!

E

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Patrick Wahl [mailto:pjwahl@attbi.com] 
Sent:	Saturday, July 13, 2002 10:01 PM
To:	canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject:	[CANSLIM] Gloom and Doom

for a change of pace, as opposed to doom and gloom.  Here is an article
where the 
author suggests several more years of economic shakeout following the
bursting of 
the stock market bubble, he also speculates that the housing market may be
the 
next bubble to burst.  Here is the link with an excerpt -

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020712-fri.html#anchor0

This admittedly stylized depiction of America's post-bubble macro climate
provides 
some important hints as to what lies ahead. Two other bubbles still seem
likely to be 
popped -- the property bubble and America's consumption bubble. It's only a
matter 
of when -- not if -- in my view. As always, supply-demand imbalances hold
the key 
to the property market. New homebuilding supply has been coming on stream
with 
considerable vigor in the past couple of years. That's the message from the 
surprising strength of housing starts. Unfortunately, it's occurred at
precisely the 
same time that demand underpinnings are being weakened by rising 
unemployment. As I see it, the housing cycle is much closer to the end than
to the 
beginning.  


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