Re: [CANSLIM] Gloom and Doom

From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Gloom and Doom
Date: Sat, 13 Jul 2002 23:22:07 -0400

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well, if the credit bubble pops, then my EPIQ and the pawn broker chains
should do well. However, vast amounts (billions of dollars) has been flowing
into savings accounts in the past weeks from stock mutual funds, not even
staying in money markets. Won't surprise me to see some of that used to pay
down debt rather than going back into stocks later.

- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Saturday, July 13, 2002 11:17 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Gloom and Doom

Patrick,

I am inclined to agree with your views, but I think it is the bursting of
the credit bubble precipitated by a collapsing stock market that will take
out the housing and consumption bubbles.

DEFLATION!

E

 -----Original Message-----
From: Patrick Wahl [mailto:pjwahl@attbi.com]
Sent: Saturday, July 13, 2002 10:01 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] Gloom and Doom

for a change of pace, as opposed to doom and gloom.  Here is an article
where the
author suggests several more years of economic shakeout following the
bursting of
the stock market bubble, he also speculates that the housing market may be
the
next bubble to burst.  Here is the link with an excerpt -

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020712-fri.html#anchor0

This admittedly stylized depiction of America's post-bubble macro climate
provides
some important hints as to what lies ahead. Two other bubbles still seem
likely to be
popped -- the property bubble and America's consumption bubble. It's only a
matter
of when -- not if -- in my view. As always, supply-demand imbalances hold
the key
to the property market. New homebuilding supply has been coming on stream
with
considerable vigor in the past couple of years. That's the message from the
surprising strength of housing starts. Unfortunately, it's occurred at
precisely the
same time that demand underpinnings are being weakened by rising
unemployment. As I see it, the housing cycle is much closer to the end than
to the
beginning.

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