RE: [CANSLIM] Gloom and Doom

From: "Fred Richards" <adrich@gte.net>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Gloom and Doom
Date: Sun, 14 Jul 2002 19:57:55 -0500

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Actually, what you are talking about is the pendulum effect in markets.

All markets are  rarely priced at the "perfect supply/demand equation"
price.  They tend toward extremes of either being under-valued or
over-valued. The key to successful investing is knowing where the pendulum
is and in what direction, it is moving.


- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of zillagirl
Sent: Sunday, July 14, 2002 7:42 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Gloom and Doom


Another article in the L.A.Times real estate section last week saying the
housing market is slowing around here because people are refusing to sell.
They cant afford to replace their house with the prices up as high as they
have gone.  If I remember correctly, I never heard much talk about a stock
bubble until after most of us lost our shirts in it.  I have a suspicious
feeling the same thing will happen with real estate-The powers that be will
be telling us we are getting a great deal paying twice what a house is worth
until the bubble burst - and everyone will be 75,000 or so short on equity
in the new place. I personally am waiting to replace my house that I sold in
December until this happens.  "What goes up must come down" It used to be
called gravity-now I believe its called reality.
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Patrick Wahl" <pjwahl@attbi.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Saturday, July 13, 2002 8:01 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Gloom and Doom


> for a change of pace, as opposed to doom and gloom.  Here is an article
where the
> author suggests several more years of economic shakeout following the
bursting of
> the stock market bubble, he also speculates that the housing market may be
the
> next bubble to burst.  Here is the link with an excerpt -
>
> http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020712-fri.html#anchor0
>
> This admittedly stylized depiction of America's post-bubble macro climate
provides
> some important hints as to what lies ahead. Two other bubbles still seem
likely to be
> popped -- the property bubble and America's consumption bubble. It's only
a matter
> of when -- not if -- in my view. As always, supply-demand imbalances hold
the key
> to the property market. New homebuilding supply has been coming on stream
with
> considerable vigor in the past couple of years. That's the message from
the
> surprising strength of housing starts. Unfortunately, it's occurred at
precisely the
> same time that demand underpinnings are being weakened by rising
> unemployment. As I see it, the housing cycle is much closer to the end
than to the
> beginning.
>
>
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