Re: [CANSLIM] M - fasten your seatbelt

From: "Dan Forant" <dforant1@nycap.rr.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - fasten your seatbelt
Date: Sun, 14 Jul 2002 20:46:21 -0400

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Ernie,

I am enjoying the trip down. Can't beat the trend. If and when we get a
rally, it's covered calls for me.

Danf

- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Cc: "'DanC'" <danc@compuall.net>
Sent: Saturday, July 13, 2002 9:22 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] M - fasten your seatbelt


> Friends this forecast is made with trepidation. It is not influenced by
> anything that we have recently discussed or anyone else's work. This
> forecast comes purely from what I see in the Market from my own system.
>
> It is obvious that the last turn high forecast for the 7-15 turn window
> actually occurred on 7-8 at a price level of 993.59 roughly 5.5 points shy
> of the forecast level of 999. When a high turn comes early outside the
turn
> window and short of the forecast target it is a signal that the market is
> very weak and that an acceleration of the decline is likely.
>
> The bounce that I am expecting is a common reaction to the "missed" turn
> window. Often when a turn comes early outside the window prices will
bounce
> near the highest probability turn date. In this case 7-15. I have recently
> forecast the 964-968 level for the top of this bounce. After doing more
work
> today it appears that the 946 level is an equally likely target for the
top
> of this bounce. Look for these two key levels and expect the market to
turn
> dramatically downward from one of them. This will likely happen Monday or
> Tuesday.
>
> From there the next low turn is due in the time window around 8-13 expect
> this turn to occur late in the window probably 8-15 or 8-16. My current
> target range for this low turn is 759-782. I know this is almost
> unthinkable. If my high bounce target of 964-968 is met this could be a
20%
> decline in a month.
>
> If you are long exercise extreme caution. Dan F enjoy yourself.
>
> I feel compelled to add a disclaimer. I am not an investment advisor. This
> is merely my opinion based on my observations of the market. Before making
> any investment decisions please seek out a competent investment advisor,
> someone like your spouse.
>
> E
>
>
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