Re: [CANSLIM] Cheap?

From: "J. Lobatto" <jlobatto@nyc.rr.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cheap?
Date: Tue, 16 Jul 2002 12:14:18 -0400
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I suspect some Dutchmen made the same argument several hundred years ago at
the height of the tulip craze.... "only 40% of the population owns tulips,
when 85% wants to. Back in the dark ages, only 10% of our fellow Dutchmen
owned tulips. Clearly 40 if not 85% will be the norm from now on, so prices
have to stay high....." I know, you'll argue that tulips had no real value,
but did anyone else read today that Dr. Koop. com which was worth
$1,000,000,000 at the height of the dot.mania was just sold to Vitacost at
about $150,000(?). Ouch! I doubt even tulip prices fell that hard.

Jon
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "zillagirl" <zillagirl@email.msn.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 11:57 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cheap?


> I have a question for minds that are smarter then my own.  When we look at
> price to earnings, don't we have to consider the number of people
investing
> in the market today over what it was in the past.  I've read
> historically -that in the past- 10 to 15% of households were involved in
the
> stock market.  Now I've seen figures of 50% or more.     If 35% more
> American households started putting money in the same 10,000 or so stocks
> that existed before-it seems like that would drive up the price, even if
the
> business was no more profitable or productive then before.(supply and
> demand). Possible even keeping the price up if these households kept
> investing(higher P/E ratios)      Hence maybe it would be unrealistic to
> think that the correct P/E for this point in time should be exactly in
line
> with the correct P/Es of the past.  Unless of course that extra 35% of the
> people got out of the market again.       Kind of like saying-the
> babyboomers are here and our mind tells us that we need many more
retirement
> homes- but historically, over the past 75 years, 2 retirement homes per
city
> have been the norm so that is the figure we will stick with.   If this
> theory sounds reasonable-it would certainly take some of the fright out of
> those charts.
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 5:30 AM
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Cheap?
>
>
> > Here is an interesting perspective on PE ratios the S&P and what is or
is
> > not cheap.
> >
> > http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/020712sppe.html
> >
> > E
> >
> >  -----Original Message-----
> > From: inderjit [mailto:inderjit@adelphia.net]
> > Sent: Monday, July 15, 2002 10:36 PM
> > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Cheap?
> >
> > You can easily ;-) find out what a stock is worth by visiting
> > http://www.valuepro.net/index.shtml. AOL is worth zero, NVR 1800+ etc.
> >
> > Regards and have a profitable Tuesday.
> >
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of zillagirl
> > Sent: Monday, July 15, 2002 7:51 PM
> > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cheap?
> >
> >
> > I emailed Mr. Tom Petruno at the L.A.Times today and asked him if he
> > could clarify the differences in he's figure and the figure on the 2 web
> > sits discussed-will let you know what I find out.
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Fred Richards" <adrich@gte.net>
> > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > Sent: Monday, July 15, 2002 3:42 PM
> > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Cheap?
> >
> >
> > > the latest www.decisionpoint.com report on the PE ratio for the S&P
> > > 500
> > for
> > > the week ending 6/12/02 stood at a still whopping 39.60 times!
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Fred Richards
> > > Sent: Sunday, July 14, 2002 7:55 PM
> > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Cheap?
> > >
> > >
> > > As an neophyte investor,  what you are missing is an doubting mind.
> > >
> > > It is the credibility of the estimates that the author is using.
> > >
> > > Does the article state what firm and/or analyst made the estimates and
> >
> > > on what basis they were made and/or the time frame?
> > >
> > > Based upon the most reliable information I have using information
> > > prior to the revamping of the list effective July 19, I believe, the
> > > S&P 500 is
> > still
> > > selling way over 19 times forward 12 month earnings.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of zillagirl
> > > Sent: Sunday, July 14, 2002 7:25 PM
> > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cheap?
> > >
> > >
> > > There is quite an extensive article in the L.A. Times today about the
> > > markets.  In there it states that " the average stock in the S & P 500
> >
> > > is priced at about 19 times this years expected earnings per share, by
> >
> > > many wall street estimates.  That is far above the historical average
> > > price -to -earnings ratio of about 14." I think I like these numbers a
> >
> > > little better.  What's up-am I missing something here?
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
> > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > > Sent: Saturday, July 13, 2002 7:06 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cheap?
> > >
> > >
> > > > I make no investment decisions, or even select stocks for watching,
> > > > on
> > the
> > > > basis of their history. The market, and stock prices, moves on
> > > expectations.
> > > > Those expectations are based on projected earnings, not what they
> > > > did
> > last
> > > > year, or five years ago.
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Rocky Sanghvi" <rs@mylodestar.com>
> > > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > > > Sent: Saturday, July 13, 2002 9:41 PM
> > > > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Cheap?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Lois,
> > > >
> > > > This was one of the news items on the nasdaq.com website frontpage.
> >
> > > > If
> > > you
> > > > wish to see it you need to go to nasdaq.com and scan some of the
> > > > older
> > > news
> > > > items.
> > > > This was was from the Dow Jones News Wire.
> > > >
> > > > Best Wishes
> > > > Rocky
> > > >
> > > > PS Tom - I am not sure why we shouldnt look at trailing earnings as
> > > > a
> > part
> > > > of your overall investment outlook.  Yes maybe not CANSLIM (which
> > > > only
> > > looks
> > > > at future earnings) but if we are looking at charts and history we
> > > > may
> > as
> > > > well consider historical facts such as what the news item was
> > > > referring
> > > to.
> > > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Lois
> > > > Sent: Saturday, July 13, 2002 9:54 AM
> > > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cheap?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Rocky,
> > > >
> > > > Would you be so kind as to post a link for the info below?
> > > >
> > > > TIA,
> > > > Lois
> > > >
> > > > Rocky Sanghvi wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio At 37.31, Down From 37.65
> > > > >
> > > > > NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The price/earnings ratio of the Standard &
> > Poor's
> > > > 500
> > > > > index at the close of trading Friday, July 12, was 37.31.
> > > > > Thursday, the ratio was 37.65.
> > > > >
> > > > > The lowest price/earnings ratio on the S&P 500 came in the second
> > > quarter
> > > > of
> > > > > 1949, when the reading slipped to 5.9. Over the last decade, the
> > > > > low
> > was
> > > > > 15.77 in the first quarter of 1995.
> > > > >
> > > > > The price/earnings ratio, known as the multiple, is a measure of
> > > > > the
> > > > average
> > > > > stock price divided by the average earnings per share. The
> > > > > earnings
> > data
> > > > is
> > > > > based on the trailing four quarters.
> > > > >
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