Re: [CANSLIM] Cheap?

From: "zillagirl" <zillagirl@email.msn.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cheap?
Date: Tue, 16 Jul 2002 08:57:05 -0700
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I have a question for minds that are smarter then my own.  When we look at
price to earnings, don't we have to consider the number of people investing
in the market today over what it was in the past.  I've read
historically -that in the past- 10 to 15% of households were involved in the
stock market.  Now I've seen figures of 50% or more.     If 35% more
American households started putting money in the same 10,000 or so stocks
that existed before-it seems like that would drive up the price, even if the
business was no more profitable or productive then before.(supply and
demand). Possible even keeping the price up if these households kept
investing(higher P/E ratios)      Hence maybe it would be unrealistic to
think that the correct P/E for this point in time should be exactly in line
with the correct P/Es of the past.  Unless of course that extra 35% of the
people got out of the market again.       Kind of like saying-the
babyboomers are here and our mind tells us that we need many more retirement
homes- but historically, over the past 75 years, 2 retirement homes per city
have been the norm so that is the figure we will stick with.   If this
theory sounds reasonable-it would certainly take some of the fright out of
those charts.
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 5:30 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Cheap?


> Here is an interesting perspective on PE ratios the S&P and what is or is
> not cheap.
>
> http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/020712sppe.html
>
> E
>
>  -----Original Message-----
> From: inderjit [mailto:inderjit@adelphia.net]
> Sent: Monday, July 15, 2002 10:36 PM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Cheap?
>
> You can easily ;-) find out what a stock is worth by visiting
> http://www.valuepro.net/index.shtml. AOL is worth zero, NVR 1800+ etc.
>
> Regards and have a profitable Tuesday.
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of zillagirl
> Sent: Monday, July 15, 2002 7:51 PM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cheap?
>
>
> I emailed Mr. Tom Petruno at the L.A.Times today and asked him if he
> could clarify the differences in he's figure and the figure on the 2 web
> sits discussed-will let you know what I find out.
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Fred Richards" <adrich@gte.net>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Monday, July 15, 2002 3:42 PM
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Cheap?
>
>
> > the latest www.decisionpoint.com report on the PE ratio for the S&P
> > 500
> for
> > the week ending 6/12/02 stood at a still whopping 39.60 times!
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Fred Richards
> > Sent: Sunday, July 14, 2002 7:55 PM
> > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Cheap?
> >
> >
> > As an neophyte investor,  what you are missing is an doubting mind.
> >
> > It is the credibility of the estimates that the author is using.
> >
> > Does the article state what firm and/or analyst made the estimates and
>
> > on what basis they were made and/or the time frame?
> >
> > Based upon the most reliable information I have using information
> > prior to the revamping of the list effective July 19, I believe, the
> > S&P 500 is
> still
> > selling way over 19 times forward 12 month earnings.
> >
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of zillagirl
> > Sent: Sunday, July 14, 2002 7:25 PM
> > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cheap?
> >
> >
> > There is quite an extensive article in the L.A. Times today about the
> > markets.  In there it states that " the average stock in the S & P 500
>
> > is priced at about 19 times this years expected earnings per share, by
>
> > many wall street estimates.  That is far above the historical average
> > price -to -earnings ratio of about 14." I think I like these numbers a
>
> > little better.  What's up-am I missing something here?
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
> > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > Sent: Saturday, July 13, 2002 7:06 PM
> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cheap?
> >
> >
> > > I make no investment decisions, or even select stocks for watching,
> > > on
> the
> > > basis of their history. The market, and stock prices, moves on
> > expectations.
> > > Those expectations are based on projected earnings, not what they
> > > did
> last
> > > year, or five years ago.
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Rocky Sanghvi" <rs@mylodestar.com>
> > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > > Sent: Saturday, July 13, 2002 9:41 PM
> > > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Cheap?
> > >
> > >
> > > Lois,
> > >
> > > This was one of the news items on the nasdaq.com website frontpage.
>
> > > If
> > you
> > > wish to see it you need to go to nasdaq.com and scan some of the
> > > older
> > news
> > > items.
> > > This was was from the Dow Jones News Wire.
> > >
> > > Best Wishes
> > > Rocky
> > >
> > > PS Tom - I am not sure why we shouldnt look at trailing earnings as
> > > a
> part
> > > of your overall investment outlook.  Yes maybe not CANSLIM (which
> > > only
> > looks
> > > at future earnings) but if we are looking at charts and history we
> > > may
> as
> > > well consider historical facts such as what the news item was
> > > referring
> > to.
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Lois
> > > Sent: Saturday, July 13, 2002 9:54 AM
> > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cheap?
> > >
> > >
> > > Rocky,
> > >
> > > Would you be so kind as to post a link for the info below?
> > >
> > > TIA,
> > > Lois
> > >
> > > Rocky Sanghvi wrote:
> > > >
> > > > S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio At 37.31, Down From 37.65
> > > >
> > > > NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The price/earnings ratio of the Standard &
> Poor's
> > > 500
> > > > index at the close of trading Friday, July 12, was 37.31.
> > > > Thursday, the ratio was 37.65.
> > > >
> > > > The lowest price/earnings ratio on the S&P 500 came in the second
> > quarter
> > > of
> > > > 1949, when the reading slipped to 5.9. Over the last decade, the
> > > > low
> was
> > > > 15.77 in the first quarter of 1995.
> > > >
> > > > The price/earnings ratio, known as the multiple, is a measure of
> > > > the
> > > average
> > > > stock price divided by the average earnings per share. The
> > > > earnings
> data
> > > is
> > > > based on the trailing four quarters.
> > > >
> > > > -
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