Re: [CANSLIM] LLUR vs. Late Stage Base

From: Harvey Brion <hbrion@ieee.org>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LLUR vs. Late Stage Base
Date: Tue, 16 Jul 2002 13:03:41 -0700

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Duke,  Here's a starting point.  I've been collecting LLURs in a separate
watch list, mostly from Tom's WWW.  I had not culled in a while so had 45
stocks in the list.  One was recently announced as being acquired by
Berkshire Hathaway (GAN).  I eliminated 13 that recently closed (weekly as
of last Friday) below their 200 DMA,  then 21 more that recently closed
below their 50 DMA.  That left 10 that have not (yet) closed below their 50
DMA; they are:

HRB
CFFN
DCOM
FCN
FDP
GLG
JLL
LABS
PORT
PFG

This list was not produced by screening for LLUR so there may be a lot more
out there.  It's best to look at them initially on weekly charts.  Tom likes
to see a year's worth of upslope and some may not be there yet.  Most have
broken their upslope in the last few weeks.  Unfortunately, but
understandably, the best looking slopes are banks or S&Ls.  Anyone reviewing
these should do their own CANSLIM due diligence.  Good luck,  Harvey



Duke Miller wrote:

> Tom:
>
> Just out of curiosity, is there an existing list of LLUR's somewhere?
>
> Duke
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom Worley
> Sent: Friday, July 12, 2002 10:55 PM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] LLUR vs. Late Stage Base
>
> my only comment is that I don't consider a LLUR to be quite the same as
> an ascending base as described by WON. A good LLUR never really
> corrects, it may flatten out briefly (a week or two or three) but
> without a perceptible correction.
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <Spencer48@aol.com>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Friday, July 12, 2002 2:56 PM
> Subject: [CANSLIM] LLUR vs. Late Stage Base
>
> Tom:
>
>      I often had troubles in identifying LLUR's and distinguishing them
> from
> WON's late-stage bases.   While LLUR's look bullish and strong (and I've
> read
> often that "the trend is your friend"), I wasn't able to understand the
> difference between them and late stage bases-since they are both
> ascending bases (with LLURs being bullish and late-stage bases being
> bearish [according to WON's analysis]).  To me, however, both were like
> an indecipherable Elliot Wave in that invariably:  One can always
> identify the wave AFTER the fact.
>
>      So I wrote Ask WON (in investors.com) and here is his answer:
>
>      "My question is: how do you distinguish between an ascending base
> and a late stage base-they both rise from  about 3 bases. Cincinnati, OH
> (AskWon answered it 7/8/02)
>       WON's Answer:  The difference lies in the shape of the bases. In a
> late-stage base, the stock might have already run up anywhere from as
> much as 100% to 400%-500% or more. The bases it made along the way had a
> minimum correction of 20%, assuming they were all cup bases. But in an
> ascending base, there are three pullbacks from 10% to 20% each, and the
> low point during each sell-off is higher than the previous.  Since the
> pullbacks were smaller than in a normal cup base, you can count this as
> one long base structure. These bases occur when a stock has much power
> but is held back by a sideways-moving market. Always keep in mind that
> ascending bases are rare. Also remember that if a stock breaks out of a
> base, but then corrects so far down that it undercuts the bottom of its
> base, you can then reset the base count."
>
> jans


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