Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M - fasten your seatbelt
Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2002 20:26:26 -0500
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Well I didn't get the bounce I was looking for, but M certainly did fall
dramatically on Monday.
The bounce that I was expecting I believe was completed today, and of course
the bounce came from the 7-15 low and not the 7-11 low like I had expected.
This bounce terminated today at 926.55, which is almost an exact 50%
retracement of the move down from the close on 7-8 to the low on 7-15.
I am expecting a drop to at least 865 by Monday, which represents a .618
extension of the move from the close on 7-8 to the low on 7-15, as measured
from today's high of 926.55.
E
- -----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com]
Sent: Saturday, July 13, 2002 8:22 PM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Cc: 'DanC'
Subject: [CANSLIM] M - fasten your seatbelt
Friends this forecast is made with trepidation. It is not influenced by
anything that we have recently discussed or anyone else's work. This
forecast comes purely from what I see in the Market from my own system.
It is obvious that the last turn high forecast for the 7-15 turn window
actually occurred on 7-8 at a price level of 993.59 roughly 5.5 points shy
of the forecast level of 999. When a high turn comes early outside the turn
window and short of the forecast target it is a signal that the market is
very weak and that an acceleration of the decline is likely.
The bounce that I am expecting is a common reaction to the "missed" turn
window. Often when a turn comes early outside the window prices will bounce
near the highest probability turn date. In this case 7-15. I have recently
forecast the 964-968 level for the top of this bounce. After doing more work
today it appears that the 946 level is an equally likely target for the top
of this bounce. Look for these two key levels and expect the market to turn
dramatically downward from one of them. This will likely happen Monday or
Tuesday.
From there the next low turn is due in the time window around 8-13 expect
this turn to occur late in the window probably 8-15 or 8-16. My current
target range for this low turn is 759-782. I know this is almost
unthinkable. If my high bounce target of 964-968 is met this could be a 20%
decline in a month.
If you are long exercise extreme caution. Dan F enjoy yourself.
I feel compelled to add a disclaimer. I am not an investment advisor. This
is merely my opinion based on my observations of the market. Before making
any investment decisions please seek out a competent investment advisor,
someone like your spouse.
E
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<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'>Well I didn't get the bounce I was lo=
oking
for, but M certainly did fall dramatically on Monday.<o:p></o:p></span></fo=
nt></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'>The bounce that I was expecting I bel=
ieve
was completed today, and of course the bounce came from the 7-15 low and not
the 7-11 low like I had expected. This bounce terminated today at 926.55, w=
hich
is almost an exact 50% retracement of the move down from the close on 7-8 to
the low on 7-15.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'>I am expecting a drop to at least 865=
by
Monday, which represents a .618 extension of the move from the close on 7-8=
to
the low on 7-15, as measured from today's high of 926.55.<o:p></o:p></span>=
</font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'>E<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>-----Original Message-----<br>
From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com] <br>
Sent: Saturday, July 13, 2002 8:22 PM<br>
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'<br>
Cc: 'DanC'<br>
Subject: [CANSLIM] M - fasten your seatbelt<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>Friends this forecast is made with trepidation. It is not influence=
d by<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>anything that we have recently discussed or anyone else's work. Thi=
s<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>forecast comes purely from what I see in the Market from my own sys=
tem.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>It is obvious that the last turn high forecast for the 7-15 turn wi=
ndow<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>actually occurred on 7-8 at a price level of 993.59 roughly 5.5 poi=
nts
shy<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>of the forecast level of 999. When a high turn comes early outside =
the
turn<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>window and short of the forecast target it is a signal that the mar=
ket
is<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>very weak and that an acceleration of the decline is likely.<o:p></=
o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>The bounce that I am expecting is a common reaction to the
"missed" turn<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>window. Often when a turn comes early outside the window prices will
bounce<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>near the highest probability turn date. In this case 7-15. I have
recently<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>forecast the 964-968 level for the top of this bounce. After doing =
more
work<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>today it appears that the 946 level is an equally likely target for=
the
top<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>of this bounce. Look for these two key levels and expect the market=
to
turn<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>dramatically downward from one of them. This will likely happen Mon=
day
or<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>Tuesday.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>From there the next low turn is due in the time window around 8-13
expect<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>this turn to occur late in the window probably 8-15 or 8-16. My cur=
rent<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>target range for this low turn is 759-782. I know this is almost<o:=
p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>unthinkable. If my high bounce target of 964-968 is met this could =
be a
20%<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>decline in a month.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>If you are long exercise extreme caution. Dan F enjoy yourself.<o:p=
></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>I feel compelled to add a disclaimer. I am not an investment adviso=
r.
This<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>is merely my opinion based on my observations of the market. Before
making<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>any investment decisions please seek out a competent investment
advisor,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>someone like your spouse.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>E<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
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<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>******************************************************************<=
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