Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 20 Jul 2002 10:58:05 -0400
Previous Article (by Subject): Re: [CANSLIM] Making the grade Chazmoore@aol.com
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00E4_01C22FDC.5335F1B0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_00E5_01C22FDC.5335F1B0" - ------=_NextPart_001_00E5_01C22FDC.5335F1B0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable M Got to be the biggest question on everyone's mind right now. The DOW 30, = NASDAQ, and S&P500 all down 9 of the past 10 sessions, and down for the = week for the ninth consecutive week, that's got to be a new record of = some kind. And we are not talking about just drifting lower on summer = doldrums light volume.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ECONOMICS During the week ending July 10, investors pulled another $3.3 billion = out of stock mutual funds, sixth week in a row of net withdrawals. It's = safe to bet this past week will be no prettier, even though I did my = part and put all my remaining cash into the markets. Just have one = margin order to fill, and I will be over 100% invested. Dumb, or smart, = only time and the markets will answer that. Industrial production in June grew 0.8% on top of a 0.4% gain in May, = sixth month in a row of increases and fastest growth since August 1998. = Capacity utilization rose to 76.1%. Both beat expectations. The = Philadelphia Fed index dropped sharply after an even sharper rise in the = prior month. I have not found this Fed region to be a good indicator of = national activity. Housing starts fell 3.6% in June to an annual rate of 1.672 million = units, in line with expectations after jumping 10.8% in May. Meanwhile, = housing permits climbed 1.4% despite expectations of a decline there as = well. The biggest decline in starts was in apartment buildings of 5 or = more units, down 6.9%, while single family homes were only down 2.9% New unemployment claims fell more than expectations to 379,000 from = 405K, lowest since mid Feb 2001, and below expectations of a drop to = 395K. The 4 week moving average fell to 391K, and continuing claims was = virtually unchanged, suggesting the jump last week in new claims was a = fluke and not the start of a trend back up. Overall, unemployment = continues to improve. The weakening US dollar, and stable energy prices, contributed to a = record trade deficit in May of $37.6 billion. More significantly, the = typical partial offset of the trade deficit from foreign investments in = US companies is shrinking, and is likely to be worse during June due the = accounting scandals and net outflow of foreign capital from US markets. = And order demand which normally would result from the weak US dollar has = not materialized, as the dollar is still expected to recover, and = production / manufacturing cycles cannot be altered that quickly to take = advantage of the rapid changes in foreign exchange rates. Imports rose = sharply, also suggesting more domestic consumer demand. The CPI rose 0.1% as expected, continuing to confirm that inflation is = not a concern at this time. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular assessment of the health of CANSLIM's "M" and, = as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING (and of course = doing your own due diligence). I am employed in Operations by a US = Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is strictly my own = ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or opinions of = my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I no longer will look at earnings forecast for this year and = next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no other due = diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM patterns = I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases (shown as = Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR (Lower Left = Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM pattern. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend got downright ugly. = My daily screen of small stocks under $20 hitting new highs got so short = on Friday that only one municipal bond closed fund made the list. In = total, only about 60 stocks to even consider, compared to the more = normal 200 to 300 minimum. So I am stretching to find something nice to = say today, take it with an even bigger grain of salt than usual. BL - total collapse of the breakout, and back to a very tight support = base at 23 BLUD - may be turning into a volatile LLUR, three bounces off the 50 dma CHCO - B3, lots of insider buying at lower prices, revenue growth poor CTSH - b/o Tuesday on volume, still holding on Friday despite heavy = selling DOCC - B2, despite drop on Friday on avg volume, one of my few gems I = own, also in VR Fund EPIQ - RS only 62, but I still have faith FCN - still holding a 13 week consolidation in the low 30s, former LLUR HBEK - B3+ LBAI - B4 MSFG - B15, no revenue growth PGC - nice 12 week consolidation RLI - strength in a dismal "M"?? SCHN - B3+, good numbers, but a steel company?? UCFC - smooth cup with a 7 week handle forming, either viewed short or = long term VIBC - decent c&h until Friday's plunge, if it quickly recovers into the = handle still worth watching WHI - first "funnel" I have seen in a while, old term coined by the = group, just as the name implies ZAP - that's what happened to me this week, nice c&h viewed short term = (6 months to a year on daily chart), scary chart viewed long term on = weekly chart This was not fun, but happy hunting anyway, and good luck Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_00E5_01C22FDC.5335F1B0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2716.2200" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>M</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Got to be the biggest question on everyone's = mind right=20 now. The DOW 30, NASDAQ, and S&P500 all down 9 of the past 10 = sessions, and=20 down for the week for the ninth consecutive week, that's got to be a new = record=20 of some kind. And we are not talking about just drifting lower on summer = doldrums light volume. </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG> <HR> </STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>During the week ending July 10, investors pulled = another=20 $3.3 billion out of stock mutual funds, sixth week in a row of net = withdrawals.=20 It's safe to bet this past week will be no prettier, even though I did = my part=20 and put all my remaining cash into the markets. Just have one margin = order to=20 fill, and I will be over 100% invested. Dumb, or smart, only time and = the=20 markets will answer that.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Industrial production in June grew 0.8% on top = of a 0.4%=20 gain in May, sixth month in a row of increases and fastest growth since = August=20 1998. Capacity utilization rose to 76.1%. Both beat expectations. The=20 Philadelphia Fed index dropped sharply after an even sharper rise in the = prior=20 month. I have not found this Fed region to be a good indicator of = national=20 activity.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Housing starts fell 3.6% in June to an annual = rate of=20 1.672 million units, in line with expectations after jumping 10.8% in = May.=20 Meanwhile, housing permits climbed 1.4% despite expectations of a = decline there=20 as well. The biggest decline in starts was in apartment buildings of 5 = or more=20 units, down 6.9%, while single family homes were only down = 2.9%</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New unemployment claims fell more than = expectations to=20 379,000 from 405K, lowest since mid Feb 2001, and below expectations of = a drop=20 to 395K. The 4 week moving average fell to 391K, and continuing claims = was=20 virtually unchanged, suggesting the jump last week in new claims was a = fluke and=20 not the start of a trend back up. Overall, unemployment continues to=20 improve.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The weakening US dollar, and stable energy = prices,=20 contributed to a record trade deficit in May of $37.6 billion. More=20 significantly, the typical partial offset of the trade deficit from = foreign=20 investments in US companies is shrinking, and is likely to be worse = during June=20 due the accounting scandals and net outflow of foreign capital from US = markets.=20 And order demand which normally would result from the weak US dollar has = not=20 materialized, as the dollar is still expected to recover, and production = /=20 manufacturing cycles cannot be altered that quickly to take advantage of = the=20 rapid changes in foreign exchange rates. Imports rose sharply, also = suggesting=20 more domestic consumer demand.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The CPI rose 0.1% as expected, continuing to = confirm that=20 inflation is not a concern at this time.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> <STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG>=20 <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular assessment of the health of = CANSLIM's "M"=20 and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with=20 constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING (and of course = doing your=20 own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed in = Operations=20 by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is strictly my = own=20 ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or opinions of = my=20 employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I no longer will look at earnings forecast = for this=20 year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no other due = diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM patterns = I see,=20 such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases (shown as Bx = where=20 "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR (Lower Left Upper = Right) even=20 though it is not exactly a CANSLIM pattern.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend got=20 downright ugly. My daily screen of small stocks under $20 hitting new = highs got=20 so short on Friday that only one municipal bond closed fund made the = list. In=20 total, only about 60 stocks to even consider, compared to the more = normal 200 to=20 300 minimum. So I am stretching to find something nice to say today, = take it=20 with an even bigger grain of salt than usual.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>BL - total collapse of the breakout, and back to a very tight = support base=20 at 23</DIV> <DIV>BLUD - may be turning into a volatile LLUR, three bounces off the = 50=20 dma</DIV> <DIV>CHCO - B3, lots of insider buying at lower prices, revenue growth=20 poor</DIV> <DIV>CTSH - b/o Tuesday on volume, still holding on Friday despite heavy = selling</DIV> <DIV>DOCC - B2, despite drop on Friday on avg volume, one of my few gems = I own,=20 also in VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>EPIQ - RS only 62, but I still have faith</DIV> <DIV>FCN - still holding a 13 week consolidation in the low 30s, former=20 LLUR</DIV> <DIV>HBEK - B3+</DIV> <DIV>LBAI - B4</DIV> <DIV>MSFG - B15, no revenue growth</DIV> <DIV>PGC - nice 12 week consolidation</DIV> <DIV>RLI - strength in a dismal "M"??</DIV> <DIV>SCHN - B3+, good numbers, but a steel company??</DIV> <DIV>UCFC - smooth cup with a 7 week handle forming, either viewed short = or long=20 term</DIV> <DIV>VIBC - decent c&h until Friday's plunge, if it quickly recovers = into=20 the handle still worth watching</DIV> <DIV>WHI - first "funnel" I have seen in a while, old term coined by the = group,=20 just as the name implies</DIV> <DIV>ZAP - that's what happened to me this week, nice c&h viewed = short term=20 (6 months to a year on daily chart), scary chart viewed long term on = weekly=20 chart</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>This was not fun, but happy hunting anyway, and good luck</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0 = src=3D"cid:00e301c22ffd$da262700$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX"=20 align=3Dbaseline border=3D0><BR><BR>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley<BR></DIV></DIV></FONT></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_00E5_01C22FDC.5335F1B0-- - ------=_NextPart_000_00E4_01C22FDC.5335F1B0 Content-Type: image/gif; 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Previous Article (by Subject): Re: [CANSLIM] Making the grade Chazmoore@aol.com
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