Re: [CANSLIM] Mr. Greenspan's testimony

From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mr. Greenspan's testimony
Date: Sat, 20 Jul 2002 23:10:48 -0400

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that 1% change means a 36% growth in a weak and recovering economy. So the
trend remains from the recessionary shrinkage we had just a year ago, to a
weak but positive economic growth in February, to a continuing strengthening
for the rest of the year. And the growth is still not so rapid or strong as
to light the fires of inflation, and force premature rate hikes before both
our economy, as well as the global economy, is well established on recovery.

Put it in perspective, if you believed your present cash for investing would
go up 36% this year if invested, would you still be in cash? Of course,
that's not to say that economic growth translates to investment gains, and
it won't as long as the disconnect factor is alive and well.

- ----- Original Message -----
From: "zillagirl" <zillagirl@email.msn.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 10:37 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mr. Greenspan's testimony


Thanks Tom for providing insight about these things for those of us that
know that are relevant but not sure to what degree.  I would have thought
that 1 % was not much but you use the term sizable increase. Helps to see
things more clearly.
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
To: "CANSLIM" <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 5:02 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Mr. Greenspan's testimony


> Interesting that he waited for the final paragraph of his speech to reveal
> that the Feds were making a sizable increase in their forecasts for this
> year's GDP growth rate. This is a full percent increase over what they
> forecasted as recently as Feb '02. This and other comments clearly hint at
> no rate hikes this year, and this quote suggests an accommodative stance
> continuing well into next year as well (note that the unemployment
forecast
> is for end of 2003, and that is one element likely to cause a rate hike as
> employment picks up).
>
> quote:
> Indeed, the central tendency of Federal Reserve policymakers' forecasts is
> for expansion of real GDP over the four quarters of 2002 of 3-1/2 to 3-3/4
> percent, somewhat above the rates anticipated in our February report.
> Economic growth is projected to be solid again next year, with real output
> rising 3-1/2 to 4 percent. Monetary policymakers anticipate that these
gains
> should be sufficient to bring the unemployment rate down to 5-1/4 to 5-1/2
> percent by the end of next year. Inflation is expected to be subdued
> throughout, with prices for personal consumption expenditures increasing
at
> only a 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent rate.
> unquote
>
> Tom Worley
> stkguru@bellsouth.net
> AIM: TexWorley
>
>
>
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