Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Ira Post" <ip108@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go.
Date: Sun, 21 Jul 2002 03:58:43 -0400
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Ernie,
I've been hearing alot about Fibonacci lately and would like to get a =
backround in it. Can you recomend a website or book that would help? =
Something easy to read would be best.
Thanks,
Ira
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Hill, Ernie=20
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20
Sent: Sunday, July 21, 2002 12:16 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go.
Ira,
=20
In my post made on 7-17 I said that the bounce I was expecting had =
been made that day and that I expected the S&P to drop to at least 865 =
by Monday. What I didn't say was that 845 was my next target. I also =
posted on 7-13 that I expected a drop to the 759-782 level by 8-15 or =
8-16.
=20
Bear with me on some of these numbers while I build my case. I am =
going to talk about Fibonacci extensions a little bit. A Fibonacci =
extension is measuring a current move by comparing it to recent moves in =
the same direction. This is the series of numbers for these extensions =
.236, .5, .618, 1.00, 1.236, 1.5, 1.618, & so on.
=20
If we measure from the high on 5-17 to the low on 6-14 and multiply =
the points by 1.618 and then subtract this number from the high on 6-18 =
we get 838.74.
=20
If we measure from the high on 6-18 to the low on 7-3 and multiply the =
points by 1.382 and then subtract this number from the high on 7-8 we =
get 847.22. We closed Friday at 847.76.
=20
If we measure from the high on 6-18 to the low on 7-15 and multiply =
the points by .5 and then subtract this number from the high on 7-17 we =
get 844.44. The low on Friday was 842.14.
=20
This is an impressive cluster of Fibonacci extensions all occurring =
very near where the market ended up on Friday. This could be strong =
enough support to signal a turn in the market from here. Generally this =
type of support would provide a spring board from which to move up. =
However, my timing model suggests that we will continue to work lower to =
at least 7-24. Also the slope of the decline has become much sharper =
suggesting to me that we finally saw some fear in this market. I =
therefore, would not be surprised to see the market move down sharply =
again on Monday. I also would not be surprised to see a one or two day =
bounce from this level, and then a continuation of the decline.
=20
As far as my forecast of 759-782 by 8-15 or 8-16 I stand by that =
forecast with one modification, due to the fear that I see beginning to =
be manifest in the market I think this level could be seen by an earlier =
date specifically 7-25 or 7-26. And the 780 level looks to be the =
stronger candidate. Here is the case for 780.
=20
If we measure from the high on 3-19 to the low on 5-7 and multiply the =
points by 2.618 and then subtract this number from the high on 5-17 we =
get 779.79.
=20
If we measure from the high on 6-18 to the low on 7-3 and multiply the =
points by 1.382 and then subtract this number from the high on 7-17 we =
get 780.18.
=20
And if we measure from the high on 7-8 to the low on 7-15 and multiply =
the points by 1.236 and then subtract this number from the high on 7-17 =
we get 781.91.
=20
This is a very tight cluster of Fibonacci extensions and suggests that =
this could be the level where we can find an intermediate term bottom. =
Not THE bottom, but a bottom that could spark a very strong bear market =
rally.
=20
In conclusion Friday could have been the intermediate term bottom at =
842.14, but my stuff suggests that the odds are in favor of at least one =
more swift drop to the 780 level before the intermediate term bottom is =
in.
=20
E
=20
=20
-----Original Message-----
From: Ira Post [mailto:ip108@yahoo.com]=20
Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 4:21 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go.
=20
I've been sitting out of the market and this discussion list because I =
don't think these market conditions are suitable for Canslim. But I'm =
ready to get back into it once the market turns around.
=20
My question is how much longer before the market turns and how low =
will it get? I'd like to hear alot of different opinons and people's =
reasons. It may do us all some good.
=20
Ira
=20
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ernie,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I've been hearing alot about Fibonacci =
lately and=20
would like to get a backround in it. Can you recomend a website or =
book=20
that would help? Something easy to read would be best.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Thanks,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ira</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3DErnie.Hill@ElPaso.com =
href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com">Hill,=20
Ernie</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'">'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=
</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, July 21, 2002 =
12:16=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] M - How =
low will=20
it go.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Ira,<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">In my post =
made on=20
7-17 I said that the bounce I was expecting had been made that day and =
that I=20
expected the S&P to drop to at least 865 by Monday. What I didn't =
say was=20
that 845 was my next target. I also posted on 7-13 that I expected a =
drop to=20
the 759-782 level by 8-15 or 8-16.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Bear with =
me on some=20
of these numbers while I build my case. I am going to talk about =
Fibonacci=20
extensions a little bit. A Fibonacci extension is measuring a current =
move by=20
comparing it to recent moves in the same direction. This is the series =
of=20
numbers for these extensions .236, .5, .618, 1.00, 1.236, 1.5, 1.618, =
& so=20
on.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">If we =
measure from=20
the high on 5-17 to the low on 6-14 and multiply the points by 1.618 =
and then=20
subtract this number from the high on 6-18 we get </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dred size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">838.74</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">If we =
measure from=20
the high on 6-18 to the low on 7-3 and multiply the points by 1.382 =
and then=20
subtract this number from the high on 7-8 we get </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dred size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">847.22</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">. We closed =
Friday at=20
</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dred size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">847.76</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">If we =
measure from=20
the high on 6-18 to the low on 7-15 and multiply the points by .5 and =
then=20
subtract this number from the high on 7-17 we get </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dred size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">844.44</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">. The low =
on Friday=20
was </SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dred size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">842.14</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">This is an =
impressive=20
cluster of Fibonacci extensions all occurring very near where the =
market ended=20
up on Friday. This could be strong enough support to signal a turn in =
the=20
market from here. Generally this type of support would provide a =
spring board=20
from which to move up. However, my timing model suggests that we will =
continue=20
to work lower to at least 7-24. Also the slope of the decline has =
become much=20
sharper suggesting to me that we finally saw some fear in this market. =
I=20
therefore, would not be surprised to see the market move down sharply =
again on=20
Monday. I also would not be surprised to see a one or two day bounce =
from this=20
level, and then a continuation of the =
decline.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">As far as =
my forecast=20
of 759-782 by 8-15 or 8-16 I stand by that forecast with one =
modification, due=20
to the fear that I see beginning to be manifest in the market I think =
this=20
level could be seen by an earlier date specifically 7-25 or 7-26. And =
the=20
</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dred size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">780</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> level =
looks to be=20
the stronger candidate. Here is the case for =
780.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">If we =
measure from=20
the high on 3-19 to the low on 5-7 and multiply the points by 2.618 =
and then=20
subtract this number from the high on 5-17 we get </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dred size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">779.79</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">If we =
measure from=20
the high on 6-18 to the low on 7-3 and multiply the points by 1.382 =
and then=20
subtract this number from the high on 7-17 we get </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dred size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">780.18</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">And if we =
measure=20
from the high on 7-8 to the low on 7-15 and multiply the points by =
1.236 and=20
then subtract this number from the high on 7-17 we get =
</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dred size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">781.91</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">This is a =
very tight=20
cluster of Fibonacci extensions and suggests that this could be the =
level=20
where we can find an intermediate term bottom. Not THE bottom, but a =
bottom=20
that could spark a very strong bear market =
rally.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">In =
conclusion Friday=20
could have been the intermediate term bottom at 842.14, but my stuff =
suggests=20
that the odds are in favor of at least one <SPAN class=3DGramE>more =
swift</SPAN>=20
drop to the 780 level before the intermediate term bottom is=20
in.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">E<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DTahoma =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">-----Original=20
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B> =
Ira Post=20
[mailto:ip108@yahoo.com<SPAN class=3DGramE>] <BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent</SPAN></B></SPAN><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">:</SPAN></B> </SPAN></FONT><st1:date =
Year=3D"2002"=20
Day=3D"20" Month=3D"7"><FONT face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">Saturday, July 20,=20
2002</SPAN></FONT></st1:date><FONT face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma"> =
</SPAN></FONT><st1:time=20
Minute=3D"21" Hour=3D"4"><FONT face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">4:21=20
AM</SPAN></FONT></st1:time><FONT face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma"><BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B> =
</SPAN></FONT><st1:PersonName><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">canslim@lists.xmission.com</SPAN></FONT></st1:PersonName><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma"><BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> [CANSLIM] M - How low =
will it=20
<SPAN class=3DGramE>go.</SPAN></SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">I've been sitting out of =
the=20
market and this discussion list because I don't think these market =
conditions=20
are suitable for Canslim. But I'm ready to get back into it once =
the=20
market turns around.</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">My question is how much =
longer=20
before the market turns and how low will it get? I'd like to =
hear alot=20
of different opinons and people's reasons. It may do us all some =
good.</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Ira</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
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