Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: jch <jchjch@earthlink.net >
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mr. Greenspan's testimony
Date: Sun, 21 Jul 2002 13:19:08 -0500
Previous Article (by Subject): Re: [CANSLIM] Mr. Greenspan's testimony "Barry Marx"
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- --=======35CA450B======= Content-Type: text/plain; x-avg-checked=avg-ok-774D5D8C; charset=us-ascii; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit With respect to the disconnect factor here's quote from monthly letter I receive from fellow who manages hedge fund of multiple managers where I have parked $: "While the economy has been recovering out of recession, stock prices have plummeted. This is a rare occurrence not seen since 1938." jchjch >that 1% change means a 36% growth in a weak and recovering economy. So the >trend remains from the recessionary shrinkage we had just a year ago, to a >weak but positive economic growth in February, to a continuing strengthening >for the rest of the year. And the growth is still not so rapid or strong as >to light the fires of inflation, and force premature rate hikes before both >our economy, as well as the global economy, is well established on recovery. > >Put it in perspective, if you believed your present cash for investing would >go up 36% this year if invested, would you still be in cash? Of course, >that's not to say that economic growth translates to investment gains, and >it won't as long as the disconnect factor is alive and well. > >----- Original Message ----- >From: "zillagirl" <zillagirl@email.msn.com> >To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> >Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 10:37 PM >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Mr. Greenspan's testimony > > >Thanks Tom for providing insight about these things for those of us that >know that are relevant but not sure to what degree. I would have thought >that 1 % was not much but you use the term sizable increase. Helps to see >things more clearly. >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net> >To: "CANSLIM" <canslim@lists.xmission.com> >Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 5:02 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] Mr. Greenspan's testimony > > > > Interesting that he waited for the final paragraph of his speech to reveal > > that the Feds were making a sizable increase in their forecasts for this > > year's GDP growth rate. This is a full percent increase over what they > > forecasted as recently as Feb '02. This and other comments clearly hint at > > no rate hikes this year, and this quote suggests an accommodative stance > > continuing well into next year as well (note that the unemployment >forecast > > is for end of 2003, and that is one element likely to cause a rate hike as > > employment picks up). > > > > quote: > > Indeed, the central tendency of Federal Reserve policymakers' forecasts is > > for expansion of real GDP over the four quarters of 2002 of 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 > > percent, somewhat above the rates anticipated in our February report. > > Economic growth is projected to be solid again next year, with real output > > rising 3-1/2 to 4 percent. Monetary policymakers anticipate that these >gains > > should be sufficient to bring the unemployment rate down to 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 > > percent by the end of next year. Inflation is expected to be subdued > > throughout, with prices for personal consumption expenditures increasing >at > > only a 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent rate. > > unquote > > > > Tom Worley > > stkguru@bellsouth.net > > AIM: TexWorley > > - --=======35CA450B======= Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii; x-avg=cert; x-avg-checked=avg-ok-774D5D8C Content-Disposition: inline - --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.377 / Virus Database: 211 - Release Date: 7/15/2002 - --=======35CA450B=======-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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