RE: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go.


From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go.
Date: Sun, 21 Jul 2002 15:31:36 -0500

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First I messed up the Fibonacci sequence of numbers that apply to ratio
analysis they are .236, .382, .5, .618, 1.00, 1.236, 1.382, 1.618, & 2.618.
 
Also I have another target that I forgot to include in my previous post. I
see 807 as a potential target from which a two to three day rally could
occur if this target is hit on 7-25 or 7-26, and then turn lower into the
8-15 time frame.
 
E
 
- -----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com] 
Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 11:17 PM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go.
 
Ira,
 
In my post made on 7-17 I said that the bounce I was expecting had been made
that day and that I expected the S&P to drop to at least 865 by Monday. What
I didn't say was that 845 was my next target. I also posted on 7-13 that I
expected a drop to the 759-782 level by 8-15 or 8-16.
 
Bear with me on some of these numbers while I build my case. I am going to
talk about Fibonacci extensions a little bit. A Fibonacci extension is
measuring a current move by comparing it to recent moves in the same
direction. This is the series of numbers for these extensions .236, .5,
.618, 1.00, 1.236, 1.5, 1.618, & so on.
 
If we measure from the high on 5-17 to the low on 6-14 and multiply the
points by 1.618 and then subtract this number from the high on 6-18 we get
838.74.
 
If we measure from the high on 6-18 to the low on 7-3 and multiply the
points by 1.382 and then subtract this number from the high on 7-8 we get
847.22. We closed Friday at 847.76.
 
If we measure from the high on 6-18 to the low on 7-15 and multiply the
points by .5 and then subtract this number from the high on 7-17 we get
844.44. The low on Friday was 842.14.
 
This is an impressive cluster of Fibonacci extensions all occurring very
near where the market ended up on Friday. This could be strong enough
support to signal a turn in the market from here. Generally this type of
support would provide a spring board from which to move up. However, my
timing model suggests that we will continue to work lower to at least 7-24.
Also the slope of the decline has become much sharper suggesting to me that
we finally saw some fear in this market. I therefore, would not be surprised
to see the market move down sharply again on Monday. I also would not be
surprised to see a one or two day bounce from this level, and then a
continuation of the decline.
 
As far as my forecast of 759-782 by 8-15 or 8-16 I stand by that forecast
with one modification, due to the fear that I see beginning to be manifest
in the market I think this level could be seen by an earlier date
specifically 7-25 or 7-26. And the 780 level looks to be the stronger
candidate. Here is the case for 780.
 
If we measure from the high on 3-19 to the low on 5-7 and multiply the
points by 2.618 and then subtract this number from the high on 5-17 we get
779.79.
 
If we measure from the high on 6-18 to the low on 7-3 and multiply the
points by 1.382 and then subtract this number from the high on 7-17 we get
780.18.
 
And if we measure from the high on 7-8 to the low on 7-15 and multiply the
points by 1.236 and then subtract this number from the high on 7-17 we get
781.91.
 
This is a very tight cluster of Fibonacci extensions and suggests that this
could be the level where we can find an intermediate term bottom. Not THE
bottom, but a bottom that could spark a very strong bear market rally.
 
In conclusion Friday could have been the intermediate term bottom at 842.14,
but my stuff suggests that the odds are in favor of at least one more swift
drop to the 780 level before the intermediate term bottom is in.
 
E
 
 
- -----Original Message-----
From: Ira Post [mailto:ip108@yahoo.com] 
Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 4:21 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] M - How low will it go.
 
I've been sitting out of the market and this discussion list because I don't
think these market conditions are suitable for Canslim.  But I'm ready to
get back into it once the market turns around.
 
My question is how much longer before the market turns and how low will it
get?  I'd like to hear alot of different opinons and people's reasons.  It
may do us all some good.
 
Ira
 

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<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=
=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>First I messed up the Fibonacci sequen=
ce
of numbers that apply to ratio analysis they are .236, .382, .5, .618, 1.00,
1.236, 1.382, 1.618, &amp; 2.618.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=
=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=
=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Also I have another target that I forg=
ot
to include in my previous post. I see 807 as a potential target from which a
two to three day rally could occur if this target is hit on 7-25 or 7-26, a=
nd
then turn lower into the 8-15 time frame.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=
=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=
=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>E<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=
=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 face=3DTahom=
a><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>-----Original Message-----<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b> Hill, Ernie
[mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com] <br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> </span></font><st1:date
Month=3D"7" Day=3D"20" Year=3D"2002"><font size=3D2 face=3DTahoma><span sty=
le=3D'font-size:
 10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>Saturday, July 20, 2002</span></font></st1:date=
><font
size=3D2 face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>=
 </span></font><st1:time
Hour=3D"23" Minute=3D"17"><font size=3D2 face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-=
size:10.0pt;
 font-family:Tahoma'>11:17 PM</span></font></st1:time><font size=3D2 face=
=3DTahoma><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'><br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> 'canslim@lists.xmission.=
com'<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> RE: [CANSLIM] M - H=
ow low
will it go.</span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Time=
s New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Ira,<o:p></o:p></sp=
an></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></=
span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>In my post made on =
7-17 I
said that the bounce I was expecting had been made that day and that I expe=
cted
the S&amp;P to drop to at least 865 by Monday. What I didn't say was that 8=
45
was my next target. I also posted on 7-13 that I expected a drop to the 759=
- -782
level by 8-15 or 8-16.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></=
span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Bear with me on som=
e of
these numbers while I build my case. I am going to talk about Fibonacci
extensions a little bit. A Fibonacci extension is measuring a current move =
by
comparing it to recent moves in the same direction. This is the series of
numbers for these extensions .236, .5, .618, 1.00, 1.236, 1.5, 1.618, &amp;=
 so
on.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></=
span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>If we measure from =
the
high on 5-17 to the low on 6-14 and multiply the points by 1.618 and then
subtract this number from the high on 6-18 we get </span></font><font size=
=3D2
color=3Dred face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:red'>838.74</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><sp=
an
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>.<o:p></o:p></span>=
</font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></=
span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>If we measure from =
the
high on 6-18 to the low on 7-3 and multiply the points by 1.382 and then
subtract this number from the high on 7-8 we get </span></font><font size=
=3D2
color=3Dred face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:red'>847.22</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><sp=
an
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>. We closed Friday =
at </span></font><font
size=3D2 color=3Dred face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fami=
ly:Arial;
color:red'>847.76</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><sp=
an
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>.<o:p></o:p></span>=
</font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></=
span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>If we measure from =
the
high on 6-18 to the low on 7-15 and multiply the points by .5 and then subt=
ract
this number from the high on 7-17 we get </span></font><font size=3D2 color=
=3Dred
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:red'>8=
44.44</span></font><font
size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fam=
ily:Arial;
color:navy'>. The low on Friday was </span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dred
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:red'>8=
42.14</span></font><font
size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fam=
ily:Arial;
color:navy'>.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></=
span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>This is an impressi=
ve
cluster of Fibonacci extensions all occurring very near where the market en=
ded
up on Friday. This could be strong enough support to signal a turn in the
market from here. Generally this type of support would provide a spring boa=
rd
from which to move up. However, my timing model suggests that we will conti=
nue
to work lower to at least 7-24. Also the slope of the decline has become mu=
ch
sharper suggesting to me that we finally saw some fear in this market. I
therefore, would not be surprised to see the market move down sharply again=
 on
Monday. I also would not be surprised to see a one or two day bounce from t=
his
level, and then a continuation of the decline.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></=
span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>As far as my foreca=
st of
759-782 by 8-15 or 8-16 I stand by that forecast with one modification, due=
 to
the fear that I see beginning to be manifest in the market I think this lev=
el
could be seen by an earlier date specifically 7-25 or 7-26. And the </span>=
</font><font
size=3D2 color=3Dred face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fami=
ly:Arial;
color:red'>780</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> level looks to be =
the
stronger candidate. Here is the case for 780.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></=
span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>If we measure from =
the
high on 3-19 to the low on 5-7 and multiply the points by 2.618 and then
subtract this number from the high on 5-17 we get </span></font><font size=
=3D2
color=3Dred face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:red'>779.79</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><sp=
an
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>.<o:p></o:p></span>=
</font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></=
span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>If we measure from =
the
high on 6-18 to the low on 7-3 and multiply the points by 1.382 and then
subtract this number from the high on 7-17 we get </span></font><font size=
=3D2
color=3Dred face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:red'>780.18</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><sp=
an
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>.<o:p></o:p></span>=
</font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></=
span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>And if we measure f=
rom
the high on 7-8 to the low on 7-15 and multiply the points by 1.236 and then
subtract this number from the high on 7-17 we get </span></font><font size=
=3D2
color=3Dred face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:red'>781.91</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><sp=
an
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>.<o:p></o:p></span>=
</font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></=
span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>This is a very tight
cluster of Fibonacci extensions and suggests that this could be the level w=
here
we can find an intermediate term bottom. Not THE bottom, but a bottom that
could spark a very strong bear market rally.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></=
span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>In conclusion Friday
could have been the intermediate term bottom at 842.14, but my stuff sugges=
ts
that the odds are in favor of at least one more swift drop to the 780 level
before the intermediate term bottom is in.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></=
span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>E<o:p></o:p></span>=
</font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></=
span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></=
span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 face=3DTaho=
ma><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>-----Original Message-----<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b> Ira Post [mailto:ip108=
@yahoo.com]
<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> </span></font><st1:date
Month=3D"7" Day=3D"20" Year=3D"2002"><font size=3D2 face=3DTahoma><span sty=
le=3D'font-size:
 10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>Saturday, July 20, 2002</span></font></st1:date=
><font
size=3D2 face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>=
 </span></font><st1:time
Hour=3D"4" Minute=3D"21"><font size=3D2 face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-s=
ize:10.0pt;
 font-family:Tahoma'>4:21 AM</span></font></st1:time><font size=3D2 face=3D=
Tahoma><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'><br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> </span></font><st1:Perso=
nName><font
 size=3D2 face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'=
>canslim@lists.xmission.com</span></font></st1:PersonName><font
size=3D2 face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>=
<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> [CANSLIM] M - How l=
ow
will it go.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Tim=
es New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 face=3DAria=
l><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>I've been sitting out of the m=
arket
and this discussion list because I don't think these market conditions are
suitable for Canslim.&nbsp; But I'm ready to get back into it once the mark=
et
turns around.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Tim=
es New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 face=3DAria=
l><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>My question is how much longer
before the market turns and how low will it get?&nbsp; I'd like to hear alo=
t of
different opinons and people's reasons.&nbsp; It may do us all some good.</=
span></font><o:p></o:p></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Tim=
es New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 face=3DAria=
l><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Ira</span></font><o:p></o:p></=
p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Tim=
es New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

</div>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 face=3DAria=
l><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'><br>
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Month=3D"7" Day=3D"15" Year=3D"2002"><font size=3D2 face=3DArial><span styl=
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 10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>7/15/02</span></font></st1:date><o:p></o:p></p>

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