Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Kelly Short" <kelly.short@neoris.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Mon, 22 Jul 2002 09:10:05 -0500
Previous Article (by Subject): [CANSLIM] Weekend Review "Winston Little"
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------_=_NextPart_001_01C23189.7A6C4752 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----_=_NextPart_002_01C23189.7A6C4752" - ------_=_NextPart_002_01C23189.7A6C4752 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Tom, =20 Thank you as always for your weekly report! - -----Original Message----- From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net] Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 9:58 AM To: CANSLIM Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview M Got to be the biggest question on everyone's mind right now. The DOW 30, = NASDAQ, and S&P500 all down 9 of the past 10 sessions, and down for the = week for the ninth consecutive week, that's got to be a new record of = some kind. And we are not talking about just drifting lower on summer = doldrums light volume.=20 =20 _____ =20 ECONOMICS During the week ending July 10, investors pulled another $3.3 billion = out of stock mutual funds, sixth week in a row of net withdrawals. It's = safe to bet this past week will be no prettier, even though I did my = part and put all my remaining cash into the markets. Just have one = margin order to fill, and I will be over 100% invested. Dumb, or smart, = only time and the markets will answer that. =20 Industrial production in June grew 0.8% on top of a 0.4% gain in May, = sixth month in a row of increases and fastest growth since August 1998. = Capacity utilization rose to 76.1%. Both beat expectations. The = Philadelphia Fed index dropped sharply after an even sharper rise in the = prior month. I have not found this Fed region to be a good indicator of = national activity. =20 Housing starts fell 3.6% in June to an annual rate of 1.672 million = units, in line with expectations after jumping 10.8% in May. Meanwhile, = housing permits climbed 1.4% despite expectations of a decline there as = well. The biggest decline in starts was in apartment buildings of 5 or = more units, down 6.9%, while single family homes were only down 2.9% =20 New unemployment claims fell more than expectations to 379,000 from = 405K, lowest since mid Feb 2001, and below expectations of a drop to = 395K. The 4 week moving average fell to 391K, and continuing claims was = virtually unchanged, suggesting the jump last week in new claims was a = fluke and not the start of a trend back up. Overall, unemployment = continues to improve. =20 The weakening US dollar, and stable energy prices, contributed to a = record trade deficit in May of $37.6 billion. More significantly, the = typical partial offset of the trade deficit from foreign investments in = US companies is shrinking, and is likely to be worse during June due the = accounting scandals and net outflow of foreign capital from US markets. = And order demand which normally would result from the weak US dollar has = not materialized, as the dollar is still expected to recover, and = production / manufacturing cycles cannot be altered that quickly to take = advantage of the rapid changes in foreign exchange rates. Imports rose = sharply, also suggesting more domestic consumer demand. =20 The CPI rose 0.1% as expected, continuing to confirm that inflation is = not a concern at this time. _____ =20 WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular assessment of the health of CANSLIM's "M" and, = as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING (and of course = doing your own due diligence). I am employed in Operations by a US = Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is strictly my own = ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or opinions of = my employer. =20 I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I no longer will look at earnings forecast for this year and = next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no other due = diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM patterns = I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases (shown as = Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR (Lower Left = Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM pattern. =20 The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend got downright ugly. = My daily screen of small stocks under $20 hitting new highs got so short = on Friday that only one municipal bond closed fund made the list. In = total, only about 60 stocks to even consider, compared to the more = normal 200 to 300 minimum. So I am stretching to find something nice to = say today, take it with an even bigger grain of salt than usual. =20 BL - total collapse of the breakout, and back to a very tight support = base at 23 BLUD - may be turning into a volatile LLUR, three bounces off the 50 dma CHCO - B3, lots of insider buying at lower prices, revenue growth poor CTSH - b/o Tuesday on volume, still holding on Friday despite heavy = selling DOCC - B2, despite drop on Friday on avg volume, one of my few gems I = own, also in VR Fund EPIQ - RS only 62, but I still have faith FCN - still holding a 13 week consolidation in the low 30s, former LLUR HBEK - B3+ LBAI - B4 MSFG - B15, no revenue growth PGC - nice 12 week consolidation RLI - strength in a dismal "M"?? SCHN - B3+, good numbers, but a steel company?? UCFC - smooth cup with a 7 week handle forming, either viewed short or = long term VIBC - decent c&h until Friday's plunge, if it quickly recovers into the = handle still worth watching WHI - first "funnel" I have seen in a while, old term coined by the = group, just as the name implies ZAP - that's what happened to me this week, nice c&h viewed short term = (6 months to a year on daily chart), scary chart viewed long term on = weekly chart =20 This was not fun, but happy hunting anyway, and good luck =20 Tom Worley <mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net> stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley _____ =20 For your protection, this e-mail message has been scanned for viruses.=20 Visit us at http://www.neoris.com/=20 _____ =20 - ------_=_NextPart_002_01C23189.7A6C4752 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META HTTP-EQUIV=3D"Content-Type" CONTENT=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 5.50.4916.2300" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><SPAN class=3D602500914-22072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>Tom,</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D602500914-22072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D602500914-22072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>Thank=20 you as always for your weekly report!</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT = face=3DTahoma=20 size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> Tom Worley=20 [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net]<BR><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, July 20, 2002 = 9:58=20 AM<BR><B>To:</B> CANSLIM<BR><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend = Weeview<BR><BR></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>M</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Got to be the biggest question on everyone's = mind right=20 now. The DOW 30, NASDAQ, and S&P500 all down 9 of the past 10 = sessions,=20 and down for the week for the ninth consecutive week, that's got to be = a new=20 record of some kind. And we are not talking about just drifting lower = on=20 summer doldrums light volume. </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG> <HR> </STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>During the week ending July 10, investors = pulled another=20 $3.3 billion out of stock mutual funds, sixth week in a row of net=20 withdrawals. It's safe to bet this past week will be no prettier, even = though=20 I did my part and put all my remaining cash into the markets. Just = have one=20 margin order to fill, and I will be over 100% invested. Dumb, or = smart, only=20 time and the markets will answer that.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Industrial production in June grew 0.8% on top = of a 0.4%=20 gain in May, sixth month in a row of increases and fastest growth = since August=20 1998. Capacity utilization rose to 76.1%. Both beat expectations. The=20 Philadelphia Fed index dropped sharply after an even sharper rise in = the prior=20 month. I have not found this Fed region to be a good indicator of = national=20 activity.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Housing starts fell 3.6% in June to an annual = rate of=20 1.672 million units, in line with expectations after jumping 10.8% in = May.=20 Meanwhile, housing permits climbed 1.4% despite expectations of a = decline=20 there as well. The biggest decline in starts was in apartment = buildings of 5=20 or more units, down 6.9%, while single family homes were only down=20 2.9%</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New unemployment claims fell more than = expectations to=20 379,000 from 405K, lowest since mid Feb 2001, and below expectations = of a drop=20 to 395K. The 4 week moving average fell to 391K, and continuing claims = was=20 virtually unchanged, suggesting the jump last week in new claims was a = fluke=20 and not the start of a trend back up. Overall, unemployment continues = to=20 improve.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The weakening US dollar, and stable energy = prices,=20 contributed to a record trade deficit in May of $37.6 billion. More=20 significantly, the typical partial offset of the trade deficit = from=20 foreign investments in US companies is shrinking, and is likely to be = worse=20 during June due the accounting scandals and net outflow of foreign = capital=20 from US markets. And order demand which normally would result from the = weak US=20 dollar has not materialized, as the dollar is still expected to = recover, and=20 production / manufacturing cycles cannot be altered that quickly to = take=20 advantage of the rapid changes in foreign exchange rates. Imports rose = sharply, also suggesting more domestic consumer demand.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The CPI rose 0.1% as expected, continuing to = confirm=20 that inflation is not a concern at this time.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> <STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG>=20 <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend = any stocks=20 to the group. It is a part of my regular assessment of the health of = CANSLIM's=20 "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks = with=20 constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING (and of course = doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am = employed in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me = is=20 strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the = views or=20 opinions of my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of=20 80 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / = acquisition /=20 buyout scenario. I no longer will look at earnings forecast = for this=20 year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no other = due=20 diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I=20 see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases (shown = as Bx=20 where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR (Lower Left = Upper=20 Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM pattern.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend got=20 downright ugly. My daily screen of small stocks under $20 hitting new = highs=20 got so short on Friday that only one municipal bond closed fund made = the list.=20 In total, only about 60 stocks to even consider, compared to the more = normal=20 200 to 300 minimum. So I am stretching to find something nice to say = today,=20 take it with an even bigger grain of salt than usual.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>BL - total collapse of the breakout, and back to a very tight = support=20 base at 23</DIV> <DIV>BLUD - may be turning into a volatile LLUR, three bounces off the = 50=20 dma</DIV> <DIV>CHCO - B3, lots of insider buying at lower prices, revenue growth = poor</DIV> <DIV>CTSH - b/o Tuesday on volume, still holding on Friday despite = heavy=20 selling</DIV> <DIV>DOCC - B2, despite drop on Friday on avg volume, one of my few = gems I=20 own, also in VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>EPIQ - RS only 62, but I still have faith</DIV> <DIV>FCN - still holding a 13 week consolidation in the low 30s, = former=20 LLUR</DIV> <DIV>HBEK - B3+</DIV> <DIV>LBAI - B4</DIV> <DIV>MSFG - B15, no revenue growth</DIV> <DIV>PGC - nice 12 week consolidation</DIV> <DIV>RLI - strength in a dismal "M"??</DIV> <DIV>SCHN - B3+, good numbers, but a steel company??</DIV> <DIV>UCFC - smooth cup with a 7 week handle forming, either viewed = short or=20 long term</DIV> <DIV>VIBC - decent c&h until Friday's plunge, if it quickly = recovers into=20 the handle still worth watching</DIV> <DIV>WHI - first "funnel" I have seen in a while, old term coined by = the=20 group, just as the name implies</DIV> <DIV>ZAP - that's what happened to me this week, nice c&h viewed = short=20 term (6 months to a year on daily chart), scary chart viewed long term = on=20 weekly chart</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>This was not fun, but happy hunting anyway, and good luck</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0 src=3D"cid:602500914@22072002-249e" = align=3Dbaseline=20 border=3D0><BR><BR>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT = face=3DArial>AIM:=20 TexWorley<BR></DIV></DIV></FONT> <HR> For your protection, this e-mail message has been scanned for viruses. = <P>Visit us at <A = href=3D"http://www.neoris.com/">http://www.neoris.com/</A>=20 <HR> <P></P></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------_=_NextPart_002_01C23189.7A6C4752-- - ------_=_NextPart_001_01C23189.7A6C4752 Content-Type: image/gif; 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