Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Duke Miller" <dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M where will it bottom?
Date: Mon, 22 Jul 2002 23:04:31 -0400
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Let me get this straight. Ernie is predicting we'll bottom out with the
DJIA at 560 to 575? That's an "ultimate" bottom? All I can say to that
is, "Ernie, what you smokin' man?"
Let me brighten the outlook a bit, folks. The following was sent to me
by a dear friend today, and I couldn't help but pass it on. It's not
exactly CANSLIM, but what the hell.
If you had invested $1000. in Nortel stock one year ago, it would now be
worth $49.
If you invested it in Enron, you would have $16.50 of the original
$1000.
With WorldCom, you would have less than $5. left
If you had bought $1000 worth of Budweiser (the beer, not the stock) one
year ago, drank all the beer, then turned in the
cans for the 5 cent deposit, you would have $92.40.
H ere's to a brighter tomorrow!
Duke
Ernie,
Thanks for your input and good luck
Jon
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Hill, <mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com> Ernie
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Sent: Monday, July 22, 2002 10:26 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] M where will it bottom?
This forecast is meant to give you a good idea of where to expect this
bear market to finally end. The head and shoulders pattern the market
has made predicts a bottom to be made in the 560-575 area. A .618
retracement of the entire move from 1982 to 2000 would give a target of
566 (arithmetic scale). Using a log scale a .382 retracement of the same
move yields a target price of 550.
These are three targets obtained by different means all of which point
to roughly the same price. I expect there will be at least one good
strong rally before the ultimate bottom is reached. As for the time
frame when this bottom will occur that is much more difficult to
forecast, however, I do not expect it to happen before March of next
year.
CANSLIM friends this will be my final post. It's difficult for me to
leave this list because I feel I have formed a friendship with many of
you. This is certainly one of the finest lists on the net. I hope some
of you have benefited from my posts, I know I have benefited from the
posts made by many of you.
Unfortunately, I am just too busy now to read all of the e-mail I get
every day. Since I am now 100% trader and no longer practice CANSLIM I
guess it is time for me to move on.
If any of you are interested in following my market forecasts you can do
so by sending a blank e-mail to:
snpforecasts-subscribe@topica.com
This is not a discussion group it is only my distribution list to those
who follow my forecasts. It also provides me with a public record of my
forecasts.
Eventually the bear will hibernate and you guys will again RULE the
investment world.
I will miss ya'll
E
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<DIV><SPAN class=3D906595602-23072002><FONT face=3DArial>Let me get this =
straight. Ernie is predicting we'll bottom out with the DJIA at =
560 to=20
575? </FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=3D906595602-23072002><FONT =
face=3DArial>That's=20
an "ultimate" bottom? All I can say to that is, "Ernie, what you =
smokin'=20
man?"</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D906595602-23072002><FONT =
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D906595602-23072002><FONT face=3DArial>Let me brighten =
the outlook=20
a bit, folks. The following was sent to me by a dear friend today, =
and I=20
couldn't help but pass it on. It's not exactly CANSLIM, but what =
the=20
hell.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D906595602-23072002><FONT =
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D906595602-23072002>
<BLOCKQUOTE class=3Dcite cite=3D"" type=3D"cite">
<BLOCKQUOTE class=3Dcite cite=3D"" type=3D"cite"><FONT size=3D2>If you =
had invested=20
$1000. in Nortel stock one year ago, it would now be worth=20
$49.</FONT><BR><BR><FONT size=3D2>If you invested it in Enron, you =
would have=20
$16.50 of the original $1000.</FONT><BR><BR><FONT size=3D2>With =
WorldCom, you=20
would have less than $5. left</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE class=3Dcite cite=3D"" type=3D"cite">
<BLOCKQUOTE class=3Dcite cite=3D"" type=3D"cite">
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>If you had bought $1000 worth of Budweiser =
(<B>the beer,=20
not the stock</B>) one year ago, drank all the beer, then turned in=20
the</FONT><BR><FONT size=3D2>cans for the 5 cent deposit, you would =
have=20
$92.40.</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader lang=3Den-us dir=3Dltr =
align=3Dleft><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN class=3D906595602-23072002><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
size=3D3> </FONT></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader lang=3Den-us dir=3Dltr =
align=3Dleft><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D906595602-23072002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader lang=3Den-us dir=3Dltr =
align=3Dleft><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D906595602-23072002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader lang=3Den-us dir=3Dltr =
align=3Dleft><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN class=3D906595602-23072002></SPAN><FONT=20
face=3DArial><FONT size=3D3>H<SPAN =
class=3D906595602-23072002> ere's to a=20
brighter tomorrow!</SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader lang=3Den-us dir=3Dltr =
align=3Dleft><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><FONT face=3DArial><FONT size=3D3><SPAN=20
class=3D906595602-23072002></SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader lang=3Den-us dir=3Dltr =
align=3Dleft><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><FONT face=3DArial><FONT size=3D3><SPAN=20
class=3D906595602-23072002>Duke </SPAN><SPAN=20
=
class=3D906595602-23072002> </SPAN></FONT></FONT><BR><BR></DIV></FON=
T>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff>Ernie,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff>Thanks for your input and good =
luck</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff>Jon</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3DErnie.Hill@ElPaso.com =
href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com">Hill,=20
Ernie</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'">'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=
</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, July 22, 2002 =
10:26=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] M where =
will it=20
bottom?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">This forecast is meant to give you a good =
idea of=20
where to expect this bear market to finally end. The head and =
shoulders=20
pattern the market has made predicts a bottom to be made in the =
<FONT=20
color=3Dred><SPAN style=3D"COLOR: red">560-575</SPAN></FONT> area. A =
.618=20
retracement of the entire move from 1982 to 2000 would give a target =
of=20
<FONT color=3Dred><SPAN style=3D"COLOR: red">566</SPAN></FONT> =
(arithmetic=20
scale). Using a log scale a .382 retracement of the same move yields =
a=20
target price of <FONT color=3Dred><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: red">550</SPAN></FONT>.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">These are three targets obtained by =
different means=20
all of which point to roughly the same price. I expect there will be =
at=20
least one good strong rally before the ultimate bottom is reached. =
As for=20
the time frame when this bottom will occur that is much more =
difficult to=20
forecast, however, I do not expect it to happen before March of next =
year.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">CANSLIM friends this will be my final =
post. It's=20
difficult for me to leave this list because I feel I have formed a=20
friendship with many of you. This is certainly one of the finest =
lists on=20
the net. I hope some of you have benefited from my posts, I know I =
have=20
benefited from the posts made by many of =
you.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Unfortunately, I am just too busy now to =
read all of=20
the e-mail I get every day. Since I am now 100% trader and no longer =
practice CANSLIM I guess it is time for me to move=20
on.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">If any of you are interested in following =
my market=20
forecasts you can do so by sending a blank e-mail=20
to:<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:snpforecasts-subscribe@topica.com">snpforecasts-subscribe@=
topica.com</A>=20
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">This is not a discussion group it is only =
my=20
distribution list to those who follow my forecasts. It also provides =
me with=20
a public record of my forecasts.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Eventually the bear will hibernate and you =
guys will=20
again RULE the investment world.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">I will miss =
ya'll<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">E<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV><CODE><FONT=20
=
size=3D3><BR><BR>********************************************************=
**********<BR>This=20
email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso =
<BR>Corporation are=20
confidential and intended solely for the <BR>use of the individual =
or entity=20
to whom they are addressed. <BR>If you have received this email in =
error=20
please notify the=20
=
<BR>sender.<BR>**********************************************************=
********<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></FONT></CODE></BODY></HTML>
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Next Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] M where will it bottom? "J. Lobatto"
Top of Thread: RE: [CANSLIM] M where will it bottom? "Mike Gibbons"
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