Re: [CANSLIM] M where will it bottom?

From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M where will it bottom?
Date: Mon, 22 Jul 2002 22:44:54 -0700
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Ernie:

Best of luck in your trading, and thanks for your input on this forum.

Many years ago, I read that there have been studies done in behavioural psychology showing that in general, it takes about 3 years to completely reverse long, deeply held beliefs. The bullish beliefs that traders have had since March 2000 ('buy the dips'), are definitely starting to crack now, but they are still present. March of next year would complete the 3-year cycle where the new belief system would be that 'tech is dead, telecom is dead, and these stocks are NEVER going to go up'. Interesting.

Cheers,

Ian


  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Hill, Ernie 
  To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' 
  Sent: Monday, July 22, 2002 7:26 PM
  Subject: [CANSLIM] M where will it bottom?


  This forecast is meant to give you a good idea of where to expect this bear market to finally end. The head and shoulders pattern the market has made predicts a bottom to be made in the 560-575 area. A .618 retracement of the entire move from 1982 to 2000 would give a target of 566 (arithmetic scale). Using a log scale a .382 retracement of the same move yields a target price of 550.

   

  These are three targets obtained by different means all of which point to roughly the same price. I expect there will be at least one good strong rally before the ultimate bottom is reached. As for the time frame when this bottom will occur that is much more difficult to forecast, however, I do not expect it to happen before March of next year.

   

  CANSLIM friends this will be my final post. It's difficult for me to leave this list because I feel I have formed a friendship with many of you. This is certainly one of the finest lists on the net. I hope some of you have benefited from my posts, I know I have benefited from the posts made by many of you.

   

  Unfortunately, I am just too busy now to read all of the e-mail I get every day. Since I am now 100% trader and no longer practice CANSLIM I guess it is time for me to move on.

   

  If any of you are interested in following my market forecasts you can do so by sending a blank e-mail to:

   

  snpforecasts-subscribe@topica.com 

   

  This is not a discussion group it is only my distribution list to those who follow my forecasts. It also provides me with a public record of my forecasts.

   

  Eventually the bear will hibernate and you guys will again RULE the investment world.

   

  I will miss ya'll

   

  E

   



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<DIV><FONT size=2>Ernie:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Best of luck in your trading, and thanks for your input on 
this forum.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Many years ago, I read that there have been studies done in 
behavioural psychology showing that in general, it takes about 3 years to 
completely reverse long, deeply held beliefs. The bullish beliefs that traders 
have had since March 2000 ('buy the dips'), are definitely starting to crack 
now, but they are still present. March of next year would complete the 3-year 
cycle where the new belief system would be that 'tech is dead, telecom is dead, 
and these stocks are NEVER going to go up'. Interesting.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Cheers,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A href="mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com" title=Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>Hill, 
  Ernie</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
  href="mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'" 
  title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>'canslim@lists.xmission.com'</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, July 22, 2002 7:26 PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] M where will it 
  bottom?</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV class=Section1>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">This forecast is meant to give you a good idea of 
  where to expect this bear market to finally end. The head and shoulders 
  pattern the market has made predicts a bottom to be made in the <FONT 
  color=red><SPAN style="COLOR: red">560-575</SPAN></FONT> area. A .618 
  retracement of the entire move from 1982 to 2000 would give a target of <FONT 
  color=red><SPAN style="COLOR: red">566</SPAN></FONT> (arithmetic scale). Using 
  a log scale a .382 retracement of the same move yields a target price of <FONT 
  color=red><SPAN 
  style="COLOR: red">550</SPAN></FONT>.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">These are three targets obtained by different means 
  all of which point to roughly the same price. I expect there will be at least 
  one good strong rally before the ultimate bottom is reached. As for the time 
  frame when this bottom will occur that is much more difficult to forecast, 
  however, I do not expect it to happen before March of next 
  year.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">CANSLIM friends this will be my final post. It's 
  difficult for me to leave this list because I feel I have formed a friendship 
  with many of you. This is certainly one of the finest lists on the net. I hope 
  some of you have benefited from my posts, I know I have benefited from the 
  posts made by many of you.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Unfortunately, I am just too busy now to read all of 
  the e-mail I get every day. Since I am now 100% trader and no longer practice 
  CANSLIM I guess it is time for me to move on.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">If any of you are interested in following my market 
  forecasts you can do so by sending a blank e-mail 
  to:<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><A 
  href="mailto:snpforecasts-subscribe@topica.com">snpforecasts-subscribe@topica.com</A> 
  <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">This is not a discussion group it is only my 
  distribution list to those who follow my forecasts. It also provides me with a 
  public record of my forecasts.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Eventually the bear will hibernate and you guys will 
  again RULE the investment world.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">I will miss ya'll<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">E<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV><CODE><FONT 
  size=3><BR><BR>******************************************************************<BR>This 
  email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso <BR>Corporation are 
  confidential and intended solely for the <BR>use of the individual or entity 
  to whom they are addressed. <BR>If you have received this email in error 
  please notify the 
  <BR>sender.<BR>******************************************************************<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></FONT></CODE></BODY></HTML>

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