Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Rocky Sanghvi" <rs@mylodestar.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Market psychology
Date: Tue, 23 Jul 2002 18:24:13 -0400
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00D4_01C23276.25442D70 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Jon, Good points. The market has been truly vicious - almost thankfully so. It has systematically filled all the gaps on its way down, leaving no possibility even for a technical rebound just to "fill a gap." Also we have begun some MILSNAC type discussions - following that - I can see the bear market ending in the exact same way the bull market ended. With churning. If we see high volume days - with no real movement in the indices - I would say that the buyers are finally making a stand. Also to be noted would be a significant rise in puts as buyers would hedge their bets in the options markets. And ofcourse Fred would be telling us that the A's are signalling a new bull market. Rocky - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of J. Lobatto Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2002 4:00 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Market psychology All the professionals are looking for a massive capitulation day to mark the termination of this bear market (i.e. an obvious panic day when they can start pouring money in). Using the fact that the market rarely satisfies the majority of participants, I suspect that the professionals may not get their wish. As such, one other scenario comes to mind: The market continues this relentless water torture for an indeterminate amount of time and finally the bear market ends at some point with a whimper barely noticed by anyone, that is a new low is made on a fairly "normal" day and the market starts climbing back up the next day, either A) explosively or perhaps B) gently and imperceptibly and basically doesn't look back from that day on. Any other non-capitulation scenarios that any of you can come up with? The reason I ask is that with my "B"scenario, we may not get the FTD day that will ring the bell for us either. Jon - ------=_NextPart_000_00D4_01C23276.25442D70 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2716.2200" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><SPAN class=3D048591722-23072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>Jon,</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D048591722-23072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D048591722-23072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>Good=20 points. The market has been truly vicious - almost thankfully = so. It=20 has systematically filled all the gaps on its way down, leaving no = possibility=20 even for a technical rebound just to "fill a gap." = </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D048591722-23072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D048591722-23072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>Also=20 we have begun some MILSNAC type discussions - following that - = I can=20 see the bear market ending in the exact same way the bull market = ended. =20 </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D048591722-23072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>With=20 churning. If we see high volume days - with no real movement in the=20 indices - I would say that the buyers are finally making a = stand. =20 Also to be noted would be a significant rise in puts as buyers would = hedge their=20 bets in the options markets. And ofcourse Fred would be telling us = that=20 the A's are signalling a new bull market. </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D048591722-23072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D048591722-23072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>Rocky</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D048591722-23072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT = face=3DTahoma=20 size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20 owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com = [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On=20 Behalf Of </B>J. Lobatto<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, July 23, 2002 4:00=20 PM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] = Market=20 psychology<BR><BR></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff>All the professionals are = looking for a=20 massive capitulation day to mark the termination of this bear market = (i.e. an=20 obvious panic day when they can start pouring money in). Using the = fact=20 that the market rarely satisfies the majority of participants, I suspect = that=20 the professionals may not get their wish. As such, one other scenario = comes to=20 mind:</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff>The market continues this = relentless water=20 torture for an indeterminate amount of time and finally the bear = market=20 ends at some point with a whimper barely noticed by anyone, that is a = new low is=20 made on a fairly</FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff> "normal" day = and the=20 market starts climbing back up the next day, either = A) explosively or=20 perhaps B) gently and imperceptibly and basically doesn't look back = from=20 that day on.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff>Any other non-capitulation = scenarios that=20 any of you can come up with? The reason I ask is that with my = "B"scenario, we=20 may not get the FTD day that will ring the bell for us = either.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff>Jon</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_00D4_01C23276.25442D70-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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