Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM hunting list
Date: Tue, 23 Jul 2002 15:36:44 -0500
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Hi jans,
I suppose that I'll have to refer back to something I mentioned on the =
list late last year, and that is, I still believe that we are in for =
10-15 years of sideways market, similar to the '64-'80 period. If that =
is so, then we are in for a period of upwaves and downwaves, with little =
progress being made in the market averages overall during those years. =
But I believe that history proves that the stocks that go up are those =
with the core CANSLIM characteristics of sustainable growth and superior =
fundamentals. The difference between what we saw in the Great Bull =
market of the 90's and what we'll see upcoming, however, is that, =
because equities will not be the best investments based on *average* =
returns, there will be less money in the equities markets and therefore =
it will tend to rotate from one winner to the next more quickly. For =
that, CANSLIM gives us excellent and simple tools to find what is =
working *at the moment*, then gives us disciplined rules to follow for =
exit when the move is over. Bottom line is that you will never be able =
to create an uber-list of stocks that will give you more than an =
intermediate-term ride, but instead, will always have to refresh that =
list with new blood. Even during the Big Bear, there have been countless =
examples of stocks with growth characteristics that have done very well =
during the upwaves, but fear, ennui, lack of discipline, etc. have kept =
investors from taking advantage of those moves. Bottom line? Our mining =
techniques have to be dynamic, lists must be constantly refreshed, and =
technicals should always lead the way to the winners. Something that I =
think often gets lost in the noise of CANSLIM is that fundamentals will =
always lag technicals, and so, in my mind, carry far less weight in the =
initial mining, and for the most part carry no weight in entry/exit =
points. That may seem like I'm contradicting what I said earlier about =
selecting stocks with sustainable growth and superior fundamentals and =
it isn't intended that way. Instead, I'm simply saying that we should =
not *start* with fundamentals to find good quality candidates. Lastly, =
as we've discussed before on th list, its highly likely that the kinds =
of companies that will demonstrate growth characteristics in the =
upcoming years may be mundane businesses, so best to have mining =
techniques that don't focus you exclusively on tech stocks.
Katherine
PS....best way to take advantage of a sideways market is to trade only =
in the direction of the prevailing wave and complement your long =
strategy with a good shorting strategy (for cash accounts) for =
downwaves (or use Rydex contra-funds in tax advantaged accounts). =
Hopefully, everybody has been using the last few years to perfect those =
shorting strategies. Of course, that's not CANSLIM, so can't be =
discussed here!
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Spencer48@aol.com=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2002 3:09 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM hunting list
Ernie & Katherine:
Ernie, I'm sorry to see you leave the list. However, I =
understand why=20
you intend to be not even a "lurker". Canslim is not for shorts, and =
its=20
formula relies on the Market being a bull before buying stocks. And =
if the=20
Market.-according to your calculations-won't rally till March/03.... =
But I do want to thank you for your responses when I had Elliot =
Wave=20
queries. I appreciate the replies, and I did re-learn and learn =
things about=20
Wave analysis which I had forgotten or neglected to take to heart. =20
Katherine, I know WON says to make a shopping list of stocks =
that look=20
good during bear markets-but this bear has been going on nearly 3 =
years. =20
Moreover, how can anyone trust the earning, sales, and cash-flow =
figures=20
on which EPS and RS are based (not to mention trust annual and =
quarterly=20
earnings and sales) until at least after August 14th (when CEOs and =
CFOs=20
must certify their figures or face jail time).
I've had a shopping list for nearly 3 years, and the stocks in =
the list=20
keep changing (I've removed from my list charts that show stocks which =
have=20
fallen below their 200 DMA; or charts whose earnings in the current =
quarters=20
are less than WON-ish; or charts whose RS's are plummeting). =20
As an example of my less than sanguine attitude: IBD's screen =
today=20
includes stocks that have increased earnings the last few quarters. =
No=20
doubt, some of those stocks will be deleted next quarter-and the =
quarter=20
after that, and the quarter...etc. =20
Excuse my rant, I know your right: Compiling a shopping list of =
nice=20
stocks now is a good idea. I'll not only know what stocks to look at =
(when=20
the Bull wakes up), but during this interim, looking at those stock's =
charts=20
gives me the opportunity to hone my technical skills. But the =
passage: =20
"When Mr. M is ready to shine..." was just too much.
jans
In a message dated 7/23/2002 10:45:03 AM Eastern Daylight Time,=20
kmalm@earthlink.net writes:
<< Now's the best time of all to get your shopping lists ready. With =
so few=20
stocks to evaluate, you can use your time for effective due diligence. =
When=20
Mr. M is ready to shine, you'll be ready with your short list. At the =
market=20
bottom in '98, very few stocks made the cut, among them? AOL and YHOO, =
both=20
of which had great runs over the next couple of years. >>
-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
- ------=_NextPart_000_00E5_01C2325E.BFDC5DC0
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charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; =
charset=3Diso-8859-1">
<META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2716.2200" name=3DGENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV>Hi jans,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I suppose that I'll have to refer back to something I mentioned on =
the list=20
late last year, and that is, I still believe that we are in for 10-15 =
years of=20
sideways market, similar to the '64-'80 period. If that is so, then we =
are in=20
for a period of upwaves and downwaves, with little progress being made =
in the=20
market averages overall during those years. But I believe that history =
proves=20
that the stocks that go up are those with the core CANSLIM =
characteristics of=20
sustainable growth and superior fundamentals. The difference between =
what we saw=20
in the Great Bull market of the 90's and what we'll see upcoming, =
however, is=20
that, because equities will not be the best investments based on =
*average*=20
returns, there will be less money in the equities markets and therefore =
it will=20
tend to rotate from one winner to the next more quickly. For that, =
CANSLIM gives=20
us excellent and simple tools to find what is working *at the moment*, =
then=20
gives us disciplined rules to follow for exit when the move is over. =
Bottom line=20
is that you will never be able to create an uber-list of stocks that =
will give=20
you more than an intermediate-term ride, but instead, will always have =
to=20
refresh that list with new blood. Even during the Big Bear, there have =
been=20
countless examples of stocks with growth characteristics that have done =
very=20
well during the upwaves, but fear, ennui, lack of discipline, etc. have =
kept=20
investors from taking advantage of those moves. Bottom line? Our mining=20
techniques have to be dynamic, lists must be constantly refreshed, and=20
technicals should always lead the way to the winners. Something that I =
think=20
often gets lost in the noise of CANSLIM is that fundamentals will always =
lag=20
technicals, and so, in my mind, carry far less weight in the initial =
mining, and=20
for the most part carry no weight in entry/exit points. That may seem =
like I'm=20
contradicting what I said earlier about selecting stocks with =
sustainable growth=20
and superior fundamentals and it isn't intended that way. Instead, I'm =
simply=20
saying that we should not *start* with fundamentals to find good quality =
candidates. Lastly, as we've discussed before on th list, its highly =
likely that=20
the kinds of companies that will demonstrate growth characteristics in =
the=20
upcoming years may be mundane businesses, so best to have mining =
techniques that=20
don't focus you exclusively on tech stocks.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>PS....best way to take advantage of a sideways market is to trade =
only in=20
the direction of the prevailing wave and complement your long strategy =
with a=20
good shorting strategy (for cash accounts) for downwaves (or use =
Rydex=20
contra-funds in tax advantaged accounts). Hopefully, everybody has been =
using=20
the last few years to perfect those shorting strategies. Of course, =
that's not=20
CANSLIM, so can't be discussed here!</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3DSpencer48@aol.com=20
href=3D"mailto:Spencer48@aol.com">Spencer48@aol.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, July 23, 2002 =
3:09=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Updated =
CANSLIM=20
hunting list</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Ernie & Katherine:<BR><BR> =
Ernie,=20
I'm sorry to see you leave the list. However, I understand why =
<BR>you=20
intend to be not even a "lurker". Canslim is not for shorts, and =
its=20
<BR>formula relies on the Market being a bull before buying =
stocks. And=20
if the <BR>Market.-according to your calculations-won't rally =
till=20
March/03.... <BR> But I do want to thank =
you for=20
your responses when I had Elliot Wave <BR>queries. I appreciate =
the=20
replies, and I did re-learn and learn things about <BR>Wave analysis =
which I=20
had forgotten or neglected to take to heart. =20
<BR><BR> Katherine, I know WON says to =
make a=20
shopping list of stocks that look <BR>good during bear markets-but =
this bear=20
has been going on nearly 3 years. <BR> =
Moreover,=20
how can anyone trust the earning, sales, and cash-flow figures <BR>on =
which=20
EPS and RS are based (not to mention trust annual and quarterly =
<BR>earnings=20
and sales) until at least after August 14th (when CEOs and CFOs =
<BR>must=20
certify their figures or face jail time).<BR> =
I've had=20
a shopping list for nearly 3 years, and the stocks in the list =
<BR>keep=20
changing (I've removed from my list charts that show stocks which have =
<BR>fallen below their 200 DMA; or charts whose earnings in the =
current=20
quarters <BR>are less than WON-ish; or charts whose RS's are=20
plummeting). <BR> As an example of my =
less than=20
sanguine attitude: IBD's screen today <BR>includes stocks that have =
increased=20
earnings the last few quarters. No <BR>doubt, some of those =
stocks will=20
be deleted next quarter-and the quarter <BR>after that, and the=20
quarter...etc. <BR> Excuse my rant, I =
know your=20
right: Compiling a shopping list of nice <BR>stocks now is a =
good=20
idea. I'll not only know what stocks to look at (when <BR>the =
Bull wakes=20
up), but during this interim, looking at those stock's charts =
<BR>gives me the=20
opportunity to hone my technical skills. But the passage: =20
<BR>"When Mr. M is ready to shine..." was just too=20
much.<BR><BR>jans<BR><BR><BR>In a message dated 7/23/2002 10:45:03 AM =
Eastern=20
Daylight Time, <BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">kmalm@earthlink.net</A>=20
writes:<BR><BR><< Now's the best time of all to get your =
shopping lists=20
ready. With so few <BR>stocks to evaluate, you can use your time for =
effective=20
due diligence. When <BR>Mr. M is ready to shine, you'll be ready with =
your=20
short list. At the market <BR>bottom in '98, very few stocks made the =
cut,=20
among them? AOL and YHOO, both <BR>of which had great runs over the =
next=20
couple of years. >><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email =
"<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In=
the=20
email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe =
canslim". Do=20
not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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