Re: [CANSLIM] Market psychology

From: jch <jchjch@earthlink.net >
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Market psychology
Date: Tue, 23 Jul 2002 15:29:25 -0500
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Jon:
  I've been watching after hours trading at the following site for maybe 
three weeks now: 
http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/dynamic/nasdaq100_indicator_after.stm
And all I see regardless of what happened during the day is traders 
optimistically chasing the bottom.. Unfortunately there are no archives of 
this data, I haven't captured the open high & close on the evenings I 
viewed this data, & three weeks is too short a time span..But it seems to 
me when that graph regularly turns south into red graphics then one more 
tech tool has fallen into place along with VIX & Investors Intelligence 
%Bulls vs Bears + Puts vs Calls all published by IBD(who regards them all 
as secondary measurements)to show a change in the direction of M. But the 
question to ask is did a new bull market ever commence without a FTD & 
surely archives exist to answer that.
jchjch

>All the professionals are looking for a massive capitulation day to mark 
>the termination of this bear market (i.e. an obvious panic day when they 
>can start pouring money in). Using the fact that the market rarely 
>satisfies the majority of participants, I suspect that the professionals 
>may not get their wish. As such, one other scenario comes to mind:
>
>The market continues this relentless water torture for an indeterminate 
>amount of time and finally the bear market ends at some point with a 
>whimper barely noticed by anyone, that is a new low is made on a fairly 
>"normal" day and the market starts climbing back up the next day, either 
>A) explosively or perhaps B) gently and imperceptibly and basically 
>doesn't look back from that day on.
>
>Any other non-capitulation scenarios that any of you can come up with? The 
>reason I ask is that with my "B"scenario, we may not get the FTD day that 
>will ring the bell for us either.
>
>Jon
>
>---


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<html>
Jon:<br>
&nbsp;I've been watching after hours trading at the following site for
maybe three weeks now:
<a href="http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/dynamic/nasdaq100_indicator_after.stm" eudora="autourl">http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/dynamic/nasdaq100_indicator_after.stm</a>&nbsp;
<br>
And all I see regardless of what happened during the day is traders
optimistically chasing the bottom.. Unfortunately there are no archives
of this data, I haven't captured the open high &amp; close on the
evenings I viewed this data, &amp; three weeks is too short a time
span..But it seems to me when that graph regularly turns south into red
graphics then one more tech tool has fallen into place along with VIX
&amp; Investors Intelligence %Bulls vs Bears + Puts vs Calls all
published by IBD(who regards them all as secondary measurements)to show a
change in the direction of M. But the question to ask is did a new bull
market ever commence without a FTD &amp; surely archives exist to answer
that.<br>
jchjch<br><br>
<blockquote type=cite class=cite cite><font face="arial" color="#0000FF">All
the professionals are looking for a massive capitulation day to mark the
termination of this bear market (i.e. an obvious panic day when they can
start pouring money in). Using the fact that the market rarely satisfies
the majority of participants, I suspect that the professionals may not
get their wish. As such, one other scenario comes to mind:</font><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<font face="arial" color="#0000FF">The market continues this relentless
water torture for an indeterminate amount of time and finally the bear
market ends at some point with a whimper barely noticed by anyone, that
is a new low is made on a fairly &quot;normal&quot; day and the market
starts climbing back up the next day, either A) explosively or perhaps B)
gently and imperceptibly and basically doesn't look back from that day
on.</font><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<font face="arial" color="#0000FF">Any other non-capitulation scenarios
that any of you can come up with? The reason I ask is that with my
&quot;B&quot;scenario, we may not get the FTD day that will ring the bell
for us either.</font><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<font face="arial" color="#0000FF">Jon</font><br><br>
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