Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HTRN
Date: Wed, 24 Jul 2002 17:15:05 -0500
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Hi Mike,
It's hard to look at the drop in HTRN without crediting most of the =
waterfall to "Mr. M"....when such a large number of stocks are failing =
right and left, you have to know that the *risk* of an otherwise healthy =
stock drafting down with the market is extraordinarily high.
That aside, I see a few things. First, look at the charts of direct =
competitors. Thinly traded EDAP and MEDS and more widely traded PMSI. =
PMSI in particular is telling: A huge tail, dropping the stock below the =
50dMA on 7/19. Those give a clue.=20
Second, look at the charts of other stocks in the same industry:=20
IGEN I G E N Int'l=20
KYPH Kyphon Inc=20
ISRG Intuitive Srgl=20
LMNX Luminex Corp=20
MEDT MedSource Tech=20
NBSC New BrunswkSci=20
CMN Cantel Medical=20
QMED Q Med Inc=20
REHB Rehabilicare=20
RITA Rita Medical=20
SONO Sonosite Inc.=20
THER Therasense Inc=20
ULGX Urologix Inc.=20
VAR Varian Medical=20
VAS Viasys Hlthcr=20
ZOLL Zoll Medical=20
Patterns in these stocks will also give clues as to the health of the =
remainder of stocks. Leaders are always the last to roll over in the =
group.
Third, look at the actual price/volume pattern of HTRN. Essentially =
churning at the highs for 4 or 5 days in late June (beginning around =
6/24). That's a big warning sign. Later a convincing slice through the =
50 day MA and a tail to close at the low. Bad news. That slice cut =
through not only the 50dMA, but also the lower upward trend line that =
had been forming since last October.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: michael_niemotka@baxter.com=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, July 24, 2002 4:32 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] HTRN
Group.
I know we have discussed this stock before, but as an exercise in =
chart
reading, can anyone point to specific characteristics that would have
prevented someone (yours truly) from getting caught in the sharp drop =
off?
It seems to be hugging the 10 day MA for a while, then suddenly =
dropped of
the table.
Thanks
Mike
Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engineer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Round Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael_niemotka@baxter.com
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<DIV>Hi Mike,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>It's hard to look at the drop in HTRN without crediting most of the =
waterfall to "Mr. M"....when such a large number of stocks are failing =
right and=20
left, you have to know that the *risk* of an otherwise healthy stock =
drafting=20
down with the market is extraordinarily high.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>That aside, I see a few things. First, look at the charts of direct =
competitors. Thinly traded EDAP and MEDS and more widely traded PMSI. =
PMSI in=20
particular is telling: A huge tail, dropping the stock below the 50dMA =
on 7/19.=20
Those give a clue. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Second, look at the charts of other stocks in the same industry: =
</DIV>
<DIV>
<TABLE style=3D"WIDTH: 140pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=3D0 =
cellPadding=3D0 width=3D187 border=3D0 x:str>
<COLGROUP>
<COL style=3D"WIDTH: 48pt" width=3D64>
<COL style=3D"WIDTH: 92pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: =
4498"=20
width=3D123>
<TBODY>
<TR style=3D"HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=3D17>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; =
BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"=20
width=3D64 height=3D17><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>IGEN</FONT></TD>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; WIDTH: 92pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: =
transparent"=20
width=3D123><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I G E N =
Int'l</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR style=3D"HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=3D17>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: =
transparent"=20
height=3D17><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>KYPH</FONT></TD>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2>Kyphon Inc</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR style=3D"HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=3D17>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: =
transparent"=20
height=3D17><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>ISRG</FONT></TD>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2>Intuitive Srgl</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR style=3D"HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=3D17>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: =
transparent"=20
height=3D17><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>LMNX</FONT></TD>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2>Luminex Corp</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR style=3D"HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=3D17>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: =
transparent"=20
height=3D17><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>MEDT</FONT></TD>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2>MedSource Tech</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR style=3D"HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=3D17>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: =
transparent"=20
height=3D17><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>NBSC</FONT></TD>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2>New BrunswkSci</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR style=3D"HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=3D17>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: =
transparent"=20
height=3D17><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>CMN</FONT></TD>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2>Cantel Medical</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR style=3D"HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=3D17>
<TD class=3Dxl24=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: =
transparent"=20
height=3D17><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>QMED</FONT></TD>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2>Q Med Inc</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR style=3D"HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=3D17>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: =
transparent"=20
height=3D17><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>REHB</FONT></TD>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2>Rehabilicare</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR style=3D"HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=3D17>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: =
transparent"=20
height=3D17><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>RITA</FONT></TD>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2>Rita Medical</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR style=3D"HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=3D17>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: =
transparent"=20
height=3D17><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>SONO</FONT></TD>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2>Sonosite Inc.</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR style=3D"HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=3D17>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: =
transparent"=20
height=3D17><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>THER</FONT></TD>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2>Therasense Inc</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR style=3D"HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=3D17>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: =
transparent"=20
height=3D17><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>ULGX</FONT></TD>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2>Urologix Inc.</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR style=3D"HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=3D17>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: =
transparent"=20
height=3D17><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>VAR</FONT></TD>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2>Varian Medical</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR style=3D"HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=3D17>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: =
transparent"=20
height=3D17><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>VAS</FONT></TD>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2>Viasys Hlthcr</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR style=3D"HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=3D17>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: =
transparent"=20
height=3D17><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>ZOLL</FONT></TD>
<TD=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: #d8d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d8d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: =
#d8d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d8d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2>Zoll =
Medical</FONT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Patterns in these stocks will also give clues as to the health of =
the=20
remainder of stocks. Leaders are always the last to roll over in the=20
group.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Third, look at the actual price/volume pattern of HTRN. Essentially =
churning at the highs for 4 or 5 days in late June (beginning around =
6/24).=20
That's a big warning sign. Later a convincing slice through the 50 day =
MA and a=20
tail to close at the low. Bad news. That slice cut through not only the =
50dMA,=20
but also the lower upward trend line that had been forming since last=20
October.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dmichael_niemotka@baxter.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:michael_niemotka@baxter.com">michael_niemotka@baxter.com</=
A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, July 24, 2002 =
4:32=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] HTRN</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Group.<BR><BR>I know we have discussed this stock =
before, but=20
as an exercise in chart<BR>reading, can anyone point to specific=20
characteristics that would have<BR>prevented someone (yours truly) =
from=20
getting caught in the sharp drop off?<BR>It seems to be hugging the 10 =
day MA=20
for a while, then suddenly dropped of<BR>the=20
table.<BR><BR>Thanks<BR><BR>Mike<BR><BR>Mike Niemotka , PE<BR>Sr. =
Principal=20
Engineer<BR>Baxter Healthcare Corporation<BR>Route 120 & Wilson=20
Road<BR>Round Lake, IL 60073<BR>Tel (847) 270-4075<BR>Fax (847) =
270-4525<BR><A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:michael_niemotka@baxter.com">michael_niemotka@baxter.com</=
A><BR><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To=20
subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In=
the=20
email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe =
canslim". Do=20
not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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