Re: [CANSLIM] HTRN

From: "Mike Lucero" <m.lucero@verizon.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HTRN
Date: Wed, 24 Jul 2002 22:31:37 -0700

Next Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] Banks helped WCOM cover-up "Tom Worley"
Previous Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] Market psychology Kent Norman
Top of Thread: Re: [CANSLIM] HTRN "Tom Worley"
Articles sorted by: [Date] [Author] [Subject]

I was going to say CANSLIM hasn't worked very well since the bear market
began, but if you were following CANSLIM, you wouldn't be going against the
market. So, maybe CANSLIM is working fine.

Mike
- ----- Original Message -----
From: <Davellil5@aol.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, July 24, 2002 5:18 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HTRN

Mike, I've had the same experience recently on stocks with great numbers
that
fizzled after breaking out, after only a 10 to 15 % rise.

 <A HREF="aol://4785:HTRN:NAS">Click here: AOL Quotes - HTRN(US)</A>

The 6-month chart shows that HTRN broke out in May, and went up over 20%
before collapsing.  I don't see any secondary base formation (of 7 weeks or
more) since breakout that would have justified recent purchase, but I also
can't see anything in the chart action to predict the collapse.

So, I looked at the numbers.  The Company has very good numbers and while
they carry 1.5 times as much debt as equity, their earnings cover debt
service requirements by 14.5 to 1, well covered.  The only really adverse
number I saw was the percentage of stock held by institutions, only 6%.  WON
says look for stocks already owned 30% by institutions -- meaning it's been
noticed.

But the institutions and mutuals have been uniformly adding to their
positions, and insiders have not been selling off (thru May31st).

This leaves me with two conjectures.  One, that in this spooky market,
investors are too scared to hang on once a stock has gained 15 or 20%.
Maybe, we have to grab small gains and try to make enough of them to stay
ahead.  Second, and especially because of the precipitous drop, maybe
someone
knows something that we don't know.

Bitter experience!  If a stock drops 8%, get out.  If it drops more than 8%
before you can catch it, get out anyway.  Don't wait to find out what's
happening.  The stock may rebound, but we shouldn't take that chance,
especially in this market.

Regards, Dave

I

- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.

- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.

Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.