Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HTRN
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2002 08:02:53 -0500
Previous Article (by Date): [CANSLIM] Was yesterday's rally for real? "Fred Richards"
Top of Thread: Re: [CANSLIM] HTRN michael_niemotka@baxter.com
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Morning, Mike.
Yes, for a stock, churning (or stalling) is simply high volume with =
little/no progress over 2 days or more. A stock can churn a bit during =
an upswing, but if it goes on for more than a couple of days near the =
highs, that's a yellow flag. I've adjusted my own sell rules so that if =
I get a couple of yellow flags (other cautionary signs in the =
price/volume pattern and/or market weakness), then I treat that as a red =
flag/sell. Others are more stringent about the interpretation and will =
sell outright at signs of churning at the highs, still others will =
lighten up and sell some % of their holdings. If the yellow flag was a =
false signal and the stock falls back on low volume and/or holds strong =
at the 50 day MA, they will then add back their position.
WON discusses churning/stalling in context of the market, referring to =
it as "subtle distribution." You can see a definition at =
http://www.market-tester.com/primer.htm or at investors.com.
Katherine
PS...you're right....it's a great list....I learn something new each and =
every day by listening to what folks contribute.
----- Original Message -----=20
From: michael_niemotka@baxter.com=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, July 25, 2002 7:38 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HTRN
Karen,
Thanks for the informative answer. I am so glad I found this group to =
help
me in my education in CANSLIM. To clarify, when you talk about =
churning,
you mean that the volume is high, but the price is not changing much,
right?
Thanks again,
Mike
Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engineer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Round Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael_niemotka@baxter.com
=
=20
"Katherine Malm" =
=20
<kmalm@earthlink.net> To: =
canslim@lists.xmission.com =20
Sent by: cc: =
=20
owner-canslim@lists.xm Subject: Re: =
[CANSLIM] HTRN =20
ission.com =
=20
=
=20
=
=20
07/24/2002 05:15 PM =
=20
Please respond to =
=20
canslim =
=20
=
=20
=
=20
Hi Mike,
It's hard to look at the drop in HTRN without crediting most of the
waterfall to "Mr. M"....when such a large number of stocks are failing
right and left, you have to know that the *risk* of an otherwise =
healthy
stock drafting down with the market is extraordinarily high.
That aside, I see a few things. First, look at the charts of direct
competitors. Thinly traded EDAP and MEDS and more widely traded PMSI. =
PMSI
in particular is telling: A huge tail, dropping the stock below the =
50dMA
on 7/19. Those give a clue.
Second, look at the charts of other stocks in the same industry:
=20
IGEN I G E N Int'l=20
=20
KYPH Kyphon Inc =20
=20
ISRG Intuitive =20
Srgl =20
=20
LMNX Luminex Corp =20
=20
MEDT MedSource =20
Tech =20
=20
NBSC New =20
BrunswkSci =20
=20
CMN Cantel =20
Medical =20
=20
QMED Q Med Inc =20
=20
REHB Rehabilicare =20
=20
RITA Rita Medical =20
=20
SONO Sonosite Inc.=20
=20
THER Therasense =20
Inc =20
=20
ULGX Urologix Inc.=20
=20
VAR Varian =20
Medical =20
=20
VAS Viasys Hlthcr=20
=20
ZOLL Zoll Medical =20
=20
Patterns in these stocks will also give clues as to the health of the
remainder of stocks. Leaders are always the last to roll over in the =
group.
Third, look at the actual price/volume pattern of HTRN. Essentially
churning at the highs for 4 or 5 days in late June (beginning around =
6/24).
That's a big warning sign. Later a convincing slice through the 50 day =
MA
and a tail to close at the low. Bad news. That slice cut through not =
only
the 50dMA, but also the lower upward trend line that had been forming =
since
last October.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From: michael_niemotka@baxter.com
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Wednesday, July 24, 2002 4:32 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] HTRN
Group.
I know we have discussed this stock before, but as an exercise in =
chart
reading, can anyone point to specific characteristics that would have
prevented someone (yours truly) from getting caught in the sharp drop =
off?
It seems to be hugging the 10 day MA for a while, then suddenly =
dropped of
the table.
Thanks
Mike
=20
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<DIV>Morning, Mike.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Yes, for a stock, churning (or stalling) is simply high volume with =
little/no progress over 2 days or more. A stock can churn a bit during =
an=20
upswing, but if it goes on for more than a couple of days near the =
highs, that's=20
a yellow flag. I've adjusted my own sell rules so that if I get a couple =
of=20
yellow flags (other cautionary signs in the price/volume pattern and/or =
market=20
weakness), then I treat that as a red flag/sell. Others are more =
stringent about=20
the interpretation and will sell outright at signs of churning at the =
highs,=20
still others will lighten up and sell some % of their holdings. If the =
yellow=20
flag was a false signal and the stock falls back on low volume and/or =
holds=20
strong at the 50 day MA, they will then add back their position.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>WON discusses churning/stalling in context of the market, referring =
to it=20
as "subtle distribution." You can see a definition at <A=20
href=3D"http://www.market-tester.com/primer.htm">http://www.market-tester=
.com/primer.htm</A> or=20
at investors.com.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>PS...you're right....it's a great list....I learn something new =
each and=20
every day by listening to what folks contribute.</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dmichael_niemotka@baxter.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:michael_niemotka@baxter.com">michael_niemotka@baxter.com</=
A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, July 25, 2002 =
7:38=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
HTRN</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><BR>Karen,<BR><BR>Thanks for the informative =
answer. I am=20
so glad I found this group to help<BR>me in my education in CANSLIM. =
To=20
clarify, when you talk about churning,<BR>you mean that the volume is =
high,=20
but the price is not changing much,<BR>right?<BR><BR>Thanks=20
again,<BR><BR>Mike<BR><BR>Mike Niemotka , PE<BR>Sr. Principal=20
Engineer<BR>Baxter Healthcare Corporation<BR>Route 120 & Wilson=20
Road<BR>Round Lake, IL 60073<BR>Tel (847) 270-4075<BR>Fax (847) =
270-4525<BR><A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:michael_niemotka@baxter.com">michael_niemotka@baxter.com</=
A><BR><BR><BR>  =
; =
&=
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=
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href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">kmalm@earthlink.net</A>> &nbs=
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To: <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
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<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xm">owner-canslim@lists.xm</A> &n=
bsp; =20
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]=20
=
HTRN &nb=
sp; &nbs=
p;  =
; =20
=
<BR> &nb=
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=
ission.com &nb=
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<BR> &nb=
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07/24/2002 05:15=20
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PM  =
; =
&=
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Please respond=20
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canslim =
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=20
<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>Hi Mike,<BR><BR>It's hard to look at the drop in =
HTRN=20
without crediting most of the<BR>waterfall to "Mr. M"....when such a =
large=20
number of stocks are failing<BR>right and left, you have to know that =
the=20
*risk* of an otherwise healthy<BR>stock drafting down with the market =
is=20
extraordinarily high.<BR><BR>That aside, I see a few things. First, =
look at=20
the charts of direct<BR>competitors. Thinly traded EDAP and MEDS and =
more=20
widely traded PMSI. PMSI<BR>in particular is telling: A huge tail, =
dropping=20
the stock below the 50dMA<BR>on 7/19. Those give a =
clue.<BR><BR>Second, look=20
at the charts of other stocks in the same=20
=
industry:<BR> =
=
<BR> IGEN I G E N Int'l=20
=
<BR> &nb=
sp; =20
<BR> KYPH Kyphon Inc =20
=
<BR> &nb=
sp; =20
<BR> ISRG Intuitive =20
<BR> =20
Srgl =20
=
<BR> &nb=
sp; =20
<BR> LMNX Luminex Corp =20
=
<BR> &nb=
sp; =20
<BR> MEDT MedSource =20
<BR> =20
Tech =20
=
<BR> &nb=
sp; =20
<BR> NBSC =20
New =20
<BR> =20
BrunswkSci =20
=
<BR> &nb=
sp; =20
<BR> CMN =20
Cantel =20
<BR> =20
Medical =20
=
<BR> &nb=
sp; =20
<BR> QMED Q Med Inc =20
=
<BR> &nb=
sp; =20
<BR> REHB Rehabilicare =20
=
<BR> &nb=
sp; =20
<BR> RITA Rita Medical =20
=
<BR> &nb=
sp; =20
<BR> SONO Sonosite Inc.=20
=
<BR> &nb=
sp; =20
<BR> THER Therasense =20
<BR> =20
Inc =20
=
<BR> &nb=
sp; =20
<BR> ULGX Urologix Inc.=20
=
<BR> &nb=
sp; =20
<BR> VAR =20
Varian =20
<BR> =20
Medical =20
=
<BR> &nb=
sp; =20
<BR> VAS Viasys Hlthcr=20
=
<BR> &nb=
sp; =20
<BR> ZOLL Zoll Medical =20
=
<BR> &nb=
sp; =20
<BR><BR><BR>Patterns in these stocks will also give clues as to the =
health of=20
the<BR>remainder of stocks. Leaders are always the last to roll over =
in the=20
group.<BR><BR>Third, look at the actual price/volume pattern of HTRN.=20
Essentially<BR>churning at the highs for 4 or 5 days in late June =
(beginning=20
around 6/24).<BR>That's a big warning sign. Later a convincing slice =
through=20
the 50 day MA<BR>and a tail to close at the low. Bad news. That slice =
cut=20
through not only<BR>the 50dMA, but also the lower upward trend line =
that had=20
been forming since<BR>last October.<BR><BR>Katherine<BR> ----- =
Original=20
Message -----<BR> From: <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:michael_niemotka@baxter.com">michael_niemotka@baxter.com</=
A><BR> To:=20
<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
<BR> Sent:=20
Wednesday, July 24, 2002 4:32 PM<BR> Subject: [CANSLIM]=20
HTRN<BR><BR> Group.<BR><BR> I know we have discussed this =
stock=20
before, but as an exercise in chart<BR> reading, can anyone point =
to=20
specific characteristics that would have<BR> prevented someone =
(yours=20
truly) from getting caught in the sharp drop off?<BR> It seems to =
be=20
hugging the 10 day MA for a while, then suddenly dropped =
of<BR> the=20
=
table.<BR><BR> Thanks<BR><BR> Mike<BR><BR> <BR></BLOCKQUOT=
E></BODY></HTML>
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Previous Article (by Date): [CANSLIM] Was yesterday's rally for real? "Fred Richards"
Top of Thread: Re: [CANSLIM] HTRN michael_niemotka@baxter.com
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