Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Fred Richards" <adrich@gte.net>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Was yesterday's rally for real?
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2002 09:01:35 -0500
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IBD as we have more history. Also, it has less noise than a large number
of measurements.
To make my point.
There is a real question about pollution. Of course, homosapiens have lived
on this planet for a few years.
Now, because we have the ability to measure things to the micron level, all
of a sudden many things are "thought" to be hazardous when in actuality,
they have been in the environment for eons and the homosapien has adapted to
any changes. But suddenly, because we have the capability to measure, the
sky is falling. We have had mold, fungus, and the plague in our earth since
the beginning of time. But recently, a few lawyers have decided that mold
is dangerous to our health and now our homeowners insurance policy premiums
in Texas have skyrocketed. A little common sense is lacking in the legal
profession and our juries.
Yep, I'm an old farmer. But if my corn fields look stressed from the
highway, I know that it is from a lack of rain and high temperatures. I
don't need a rain gauge calibrated in thousandth's of an inch and a
thermometer capable of measuring temperature in hundred's of a degree to
tell me that the corn is stressed.
The same goes for many other aspects of life including the market.
The question is simply this . . . are large institutions buying or selling
the stock. We can tell that by simply looking at the number that hold it.
Did it increase or not? Sometimes, I think that we forget to see the forest
by looking at all the trees.
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Gene Ricci
Sent: Thursday, July 25, 2002 8:40 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Was yesterday's rally for real?
Fred, IBD has A thru E, while DGO uses A thru W with the addition of a
Plus (+) or Minus (-) with their ACC/DIST.... which do you use?
Thanks,
Gene
----- Original Message -----
From: Fred Richards
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Thursday, July 25, 2002 7:57 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Was yesterday's rally for real?
In analyzing yesterday's rally, I would make the following points for
your consideration:
1. A good deal of short covering occurred. I know that I covered most
of my short positions by 9:15 CDT.
2. A fear from a lot of people that they did not want to get left
missing the bottom fueled the buying in mostly large cap stocks.
3. The market was one in which all the technical indicators showed a
major oversold position.
Yet, the breadth of the market was not heavily in favor of the upside.
And the number of stocks rated A in the Acc/Dis ratings for IBD actually
fell to an all-time low hitting 106 yesterday.
For the moment, this looks just like another relief rally in a bear
market.
Relief rallies rarely increase more than 15-20% from their low points so
a lot of energy has already by consumed.
For me, I will be very cautious in this market. You, of course, will
make your own decisions.
- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fred Richards
Corruptisima republica plurimae leges. [The more corrupt a republic,
the more laws.] - - Tacitus, Annuals III 27
www.adrich.com
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<DIV><SPAN class=3D480074913-25072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>IBD as we have more history. Also, it has less =
noise than a=20
large number of measurements.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D480074913-25072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D480074913-25072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>To=20
make my point.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D480074913-25072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D480074913-25072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>There=20
is a real question about pollution. Of course, homosapiens have =
lived on=20
this planet for a few years.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D480074913-25072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D480074913-25072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>Now,=20
because we have the ability to measure things to the micron level, all =
of a=20
sudden many things are "thought" to be hazardous when in actuality, they =
have=20
been in the environment for eons and the homosapien has adapted to any=20
changes. But suddenly, because we have the capability to measure, =
the sky=20
is falling. We have had mold, fungus, and the plague in our earth =
since=20
the beginning of time. But recently, a few lawyers have decided =
that mold=20
is dangerous to our health and now our homeowners insurance policy =
premiums in=20
Texas have skyrocketed. A little common sense is lacking in the =
legal=20
profession and our juries.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D480074913-25072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D480074913-25072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>Yep,=20
I'm an old farmer. But if my corn fields look stressed from the highway, =
I know=20
that it is from a lack of rain and high temperatures. I don't need =
a rain=20
gauge calibrated in thousandth's of an inch and a thermometer capable of =
measuring temperature in hundred's of a degree to tell me that the corn =
is=20
stressed.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D480074913-25072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D480074913-25072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>The=20
same goes for many other aspects of life including the=20
market.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D480074913-25072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D480074913-25072002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>The=20
question is simply this . . . are large institutions buying or selling =
the=20
stock. We can tell that by simply looking at the number that hold=20
it. Did it increase or not? Sometimes, I think that =
we forget=20
to see the forest by looking at all the trees. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Gene=20
Ricci<BR><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, July 25, 2002 8:40 AM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Was =
yesterday's=20
rally for real?<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Fred, IBD has A thru E, while DGO =
uses A thru=20
W with the addition of a Plus (+) or Minus (-) with their ACC/DIST.... =
which=20
do you use?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Thanks,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Gene</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dffradrich@attbi.com =
href=3D"mailto:ffradrich@attbi.com">Fred=20
Richards</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, July 25, 2002 =
7:57=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Was =
yesterday's=20
rally for real?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN class=3D980034912-25072002>In =
analyzing=20
yesterday's rally, I would make the following points for your=20
consideration:</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D980034912-25072002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D980034912-25072002> 1. A=20
good deal of short covering occurred. I know that I covered =
most of my=20
short positions by 9:15 CDT.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D980034912-25072002> 2. A=20
fear from a lot of people that they did not want to get left missing =
the=20
bottom fueled the buying in mostly large cap=20
stocks. </SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D980034912-25072002> 3. =20
The market was one in which all the technical indicators showed a =
major=20
oversold position.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D980034912-25072002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D980034912-25072002>Yet, the breadth=20
of the market was not heavily in favor of the =
upside.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D980034912-25072002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D980034912-25072002>And the number=20
of stocks rated A in the Acc/Dis ratings for IBD actually fell to an =
all-time low hitting 106 yesterday.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D980034912-25072002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D980034912-25072002>For the moment,=20
this looks just like another relief rally in a bear market. =20
</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D980034912-25072002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D980034912-25072002>Relief rallies=20
rarely increase more than 15-20% from their low points so a lot =
of=20
energy has already by consumed.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D980034912-25072002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D980034912-25072002>For me, I will=20
be very cautious in this market. You, of course, will make =
your own=20
decisions.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D980034912-25072002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN class=3D980034912-25072002>
<HR>
</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Fred Richards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Corruptisima republica plurimae =
leges. =20
[The more corrupt a republic, the more laws.] - - Tacitus, =
Annuals III=20
27</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
href=3D"http://www.adrich.com/">www.adrich.com</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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