Re: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN

From: Spencer48@aol.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN
Date: Fri, 26 Jul 2002 00:33:29 EDT

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Tom:

     The number of shorts is derived monthly (even though the volume may 
change daily)-so the +23% short interest is not really relevant, in my 
opinion, due to the fact that you are comparing the short sales 2 months ago 
with last month (ie. it was growing, but is it still?).  And my observation 
concerned yesterday and today.  

     Thus, although I can't be sure, it looks to me like the chart shows that 
FCN surged due to the shorts covering their postions.  To me it doesn't make 
any difference whether they are profiting or "biting the bullet and taking 
their loss".  My point is that the stock is not showing strength:  The only 
reason it is going higher is that shorts are covering their postion.  Its 
rate of change is not keeping up with its price rise-as seen in the turning 
over of the 50 DMA, and the fact that the stock itself (excepting today) has 
not done to much since early May.  

     I conclude that there was short covering because the market is extremely 
OverSold; some arrests were made yesterday in the SEC's Executive Derby (and 
that added impetus to the short covering); volume was very high today (I 
concede this could be due to the strength of FCN-but in this market I doubt 
it.  Although to make your point, the RS-line has been in very strong 
divergence recently).  And lastly, because there are so many funds in this 
stock-and if funds were covering their shorts, then volume would naturally be 
very high (as it was today).

jans

In a message dated 7/25/2002 11:27:15 PM Eastern Daylight Time, 
stkguru@bellsouth.net writes:

<< maybe I am so tired I am completely brain dead, but don't understand the
 comment on the short position. The stock has been up steadily for a long
 time, and the short position is now at 9.6 days, up 23% from the last
 report, so the total shares short is still growing. That means the shorters
 are losing their shirt.....   I do agree that a 40% funds ownership in this 
market is scary
 
 ----- Original Message -----
 From: <Spencer48@aol.com>
 To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
 Sent: Thursday, July 25, 2002 5:52 PM
 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] FTI Consulting FCN 
 
      One more thing:  DGO shows that funds own 40% of the float.  That would
 be too high for me in a bull (I think)-and in a bear it is definitely a
 warning signal.  Moreover the short interest ratio is 9.6, which means that
 if profits are taken, the stock will plummet (short covering + 40% funds in
 the float = NO-NO)
 
 jans
 
 
 

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