Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM hunting list
Date: Fri, 26 Jul 2002 06:53:24 -0700
Previous Article (by Subject): [CANSLIM] things I didn't know, or maybe forgot in my old age "Tom Worley"
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Katherine:
Well spoken. I suspect thatone of the characteristics of this kind of =
market will be the length of time a company show good fundamental growth =
before strong technicals kick in. When the market is in long-term bull =
mode, its easy to be patient and wait 4-5 quarters to confirm strong =
fundamentals - but in a sideways/rotating market, we are likely to see =
good technical responses to just 1 or 2 strong fundamental quarters - =
and the whole technical cycle can easily play out within 6 months. Sell =
rules will become the primary tool of any successful trader.
FInally, I think CANSLIM tools provide wonderful mining for good shorts =
- - look for companies with strong RS, with shaky fundamentals, high =
historical valuations, whose charts are rolling over and screaming =
'sell' if you were long the stock.
Cheers,
Ian
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2002 1:36 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM hunting list
Hi jans,
I suppose that I'll have to refer back to something I mentioned on the =
list late last year, and that is, I still believe that we are in for =
10-15 years of sideways market, similar to the '64-'80 period. If that =
is so, then we are in for a period of upwaves and downwaves, with little =
progress being made in the market averages overall during those years. =
But I believe that history proves that the stocks that go up are those =
with the core CANSLIM characteristics of sustainable growth and superior =
fundamentals. The difference between what we saw in the Great Bull =
market of the 90's and what we'll see upcoming, however, is that, =
because equities will not be the best investments based on *average* =
returns, there will be less money in the equities markets and therefore =
it will tend to rotate from one winner to the next more quickly. For =
that, CANSLIM gives us excellent and simple tools to find what is =
working *at the moment*, then gives us disciplined rules to follow for =
exit when the move is over. Bottom line is that you will never be able =
to create an uber-list of stocks that will give you more than an =
intermediate-term ride, but instead, will always have to refresh that =
list with new blood. Even during the Big Bear, there have been countless =
examples of stocks with growth characteristics that have done very well =
during the upwaves, but fear, ennui, lack of discipline, etc. have kept =
investors from taking advantage of those moves. Bottom line? Our mining =
techniques have to be dynamic, lists must be constantly refreshed, and =
technicals should always lead the way to the winners. Something that I =
think often gets lost in the noise of CANSLIM is that fundamentals will =
always lag technicals, and so, in my mind, carry far less weight in the =
initial mining, and for the most part carry no weight in entry/exit =
points. That may seem like I'm contradicting what I said earlier about =
selecting stocks with sustainable growth and superior fundamentals and =
it isn't intended that way. Instead, I'm simply saying that we should =
not *start* with fundamentals to find good quality candidates. Lastly, =
as we've discussed before on th list, its highly likely that the kinds =
of companies that will demonstrate growth characteristics in the =
upcoming years may be mundane businesses, so best to have mining =
techniques that don't focus you exclusively on tech stocks.
Katherine
PS....best way to take advantage of a sideways market is to trade only =
in the direction of the prevailing wave and complement your long =
strategy with a good shorting strategy (for cash accounts) for =
downwaves (or use Rydex contra-funds in tax advantaged accounts). =
Hopefully, everybody has been using the last few years to perfect those =
shorting strategies. Of course, that's not CANSLIM, so can't be =
discussed here!
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Spencer48@aol.com=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2002 3:09 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM hunting list
Ernie & Katherine:
Ernie, I'm sorry to see you leave the list. However, I =
understand why=20
you intend to be not even a "lurker". Canslim is not for shorts, =
and its=20
formula relies on the Market being a bull before buying stocks. And =
if the=20
Market.-according to your calculations-won't rally till =
March/03.... =20
But I do want to thank you for your responses when I had Elliot =
Wave=20
queries. I appreciate the replies, and I did re-learn and learn =
things about=20
Wave analysis which I had forgotten or neglected to take to heart. =
Katherine, I know WON says to make a shopping list of stocks =
that look=20
good during bear markets-but this bear has been going on nearly 3 =
years. =20
Moreover, how can anyone trust the earning, sales, and =
cash-flow figures=20
on which EPS and RS are based (not to mention trust annual and =
quarterly=20
earnings and sales) until at least after August 14th (when CEOs and =
CFOs=20
must certify their figures or face jail time).
I've had a shopping list for nearly 3 years, and the stocks in =
the list=20
keep changing (I've removed from my list charts that show stocks =
which have=20
fallen below their 200 DMA; or charts whose earnings in the current =
quarters=20
are less than WON-ish; or charts whose RS's are plummeting). =20
As an example of my less than sanguine attitude: IBD's screen =
today=20
includes stocks that have increased earnings the last few quarters. =
No=20
doubt, some of those stocks will be deleted next quarter-and the =
quarter=20
after that, and the quarter...etc. =20
Excuse my rant, I know your right: Compiling a shopping list =
of nice=20
stocks now is a good idea. I'll not only know what stocks to look =
at (when=20
the Bull wakes up), but during this interim, looking at those =
stock's charts=20
gives me the opportunity to hone my technical skills. But the =
passage: =20
"When Mr. M is ready to shine..." was just too much.
jans
In a message dated 7/23/2002 10:45:03 AM Eastern Daylight Time,=20
kmalm@earthlink.net writes:
<< Now's the best time of all to get your shopping lists ready. With =
so few=20
stocks to evaluate, you can use your time for effective due =
diligence. When=20
Mr. M is ready to shine, you'll be ready with your short list. At =
the market=20
bottom in '98, very few stocks made the cut, among them? AOL and =
YHOO, both=20
of which had great runs over the next couple of years. >>
-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Katherine:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Well spoken. I suspect thatone of the
characteristics of this kind of market will be the length of time a company show
good fundamental growth before strong technicals kick in. When the market is in
long-term bull mode, its easy to be patient and wait 4-5 quarters to confirm
strong fundamentals - but in a sideways/rotating market, we are likely to see
good technical responses to just 1 or 2 strong fundamental quarters - and the
whole technical cycle can easily play out within 6 months. Sell rules will
become the primary tool of any successful trader.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>FInally, I think CANSLIM tools provide wonderful mining for
good shorts - look for companies with strong RS, with shaky fundamentals, high
historical valuations, whose charts are rolling over and screaming 'sell' if you
were long the stock.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Cheers,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net" title=kmalm@earthlink.net>Katherine
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, July 23, 2002 1:36
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM
hunting list</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi jans,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I suppose that I'll have to refer back to something I mentioned on the
list late last year, and that is, I still believe that we are in for 10-15
years of sideways market, similar to the '64-'80 period. If that is so, then
we are in for a period of upwaves and downwaves, with little progress being
made in the market averages overall during those years. But I believe that
history proves that the stocks that go up are those with the core CANSLIM
characteristics of sustainable growth and superior fundamentals. The
difference between what we saw in the Great Bull market of the 90's and what
we'll see upcoming, however, is that, because equities will not be the best
investments based on *average* returns, there will be less money in the
equities markets and therefore it will tend to rotate from one winner to the
next more quickly. For that, CANSLIM gives us excellent and simple tools to
find what is working *at the moment*, then gives us disciplined rules to
follow for exit when the move is over. Bottom line is that you will never be
able to create an uber-list of stocks that will give you more than an
intermediate-term ride, but instead, will always have to refresh that list
with new blood. Even during the Big Bear, there have been countless examples
of stocks with growth characteristics that have done very well during the
upwaves, but fear, ennui, lack of discipline, etc. have kept investors from
taking advantage of those moves. Bottom line? Our mining techniques have to be
dynamic, lists must be constantly refreshed, and technicals should always lead
the way to the winners. Something that I think often gets lost in the noise of
CANSLIM is that fundamentals will always lag technicals, and so, in my mind,
carry far less weight in the initial mining, and for the most part carry no
weight in entry/exit points. That may seem like I'm contradicting what I said
earlier about selecting stocks with sustainable growth and superior
fundamentals and it isn't intended that way. Instead, I'm simply saying that
we should not *start* with fundamentals to find good quality candidates.
Lastly, as we've discussed before on th list, its highly likely that the kinds
of companies that will demonstrate growth characteristics in the upcoming
years may be mundane businesses, so best to have mining techniques that don't
focus you exclusively on tech stocks.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>PS....best way to take advantage of a sideways market is to trade only in
the direction of the prevailing wave and complement your long strategy with a
good shorting strategy (for cash accounts) for downwaves (or use Rydex
contra-funds in tax advantaged accounts). Hopefully, everybody has been using
the last few years to perfect those shorting strategies. Of course, that's not
CANSLIM, so can't be discussed here!</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:Spencer48@aol.com"
title=Spencer48@aol.com>Spencer48@aol.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, July 23, 2002 3:09
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM
hunting list</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Ernie & Katherine:<BR><BR> Ernie,
I'm sorry to see you leave the list. However, I understand why <BR>you
intend to be not even a "lurker". Canslim is not for shorts, and its
<BR>formula relies on the Market being a bull before buying stocks.
And if the <BR>Market.-according to your calculations-won't rally till
March/03.... <BR> But I do want to thank you
for your responses when I had Elliot Wave <BR>queries. I appreciate
the replies, and I did re-learn and learn things about <BR>Wave analysis
which I had forgotten or neglected to take to heart.
<BR><BR> Katherine, I know WON says to make a
shopping list of stocks that look <BR>good during bear markets-but this bear
has been going on nearly 3 years. <BR>
Moreover, how can anyone trust the earning, sales, and cash-flow figures
<BR>on which EPS and RS are based (not to mention trust annual and quarterly
<BR>earnings and sales) until at least after August 14th (when CEOs
and CFOs <BR>must certify their figures or face jail
time).<BR> I've had a shopping list for nearly 3
years, and the stocks in the list <BR>keep changing (I've removed from my
list charts that show stocks which have <BR>fallen below their 200 DMA; or
charts whose earnings in the current quarters <BR>are less than WON-ish; or
charts whose RS's are plummeting). <BR> As an
example of my less than sanguine attitude: IBD's screen today <BR>includes
stocks that have increased earnings the last few quarters. No
<BR>doubt, some of those stocks will be deleted next quarter-and the quarter
<BR>after that, and the quarter...etc. <BR>
Excuse my rant, I know your right: Compiling a shopping list of nice
<BR>stocks now is a good idea. I'll not only know what stocks to look
at (when <BR>the Bull wakes up), but during this interim, looking at those
stock's charts <BR>gives me the opportunity to hone my technical
skills. But the passage: <BR>"When Mr. M is ready to shine..."
was just too much.<BR><BR>jans<BR><BR><BR>In a message dated 7/23/2002
10:45:03 AM Eastern Daylight Time, <BR><A
href="mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">kmalm@earthlink.net</A>
writes:<BR><BR><< Now's the best time of all to get your shopping
lists ready. With so few <BR>stocks to evaluate, you can use your time for
effective due diligence. When <BR>Mr. M is ready to shine, you'll be ready
with your short list. At the market <BR>bottom in '98, very few stocks made
the cut, among them? AOL and YHOO, both <BR>of which had great runs over the
next couple of years. >><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email
"<A href="mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In
the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe
canslim". Do not use quotes in your
email.</BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
- --Boundary_(ID_Rcp5rWp6ZM9WH0fyGf1ukg)--
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
Previous Article (by Subject): [CANSLIM] things I didn't know, or maybe forgot in my old age "Tom Worley"
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