RE: [CANSLIM] Cramer

From: "Duke Miller" <dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Cramer
Date: Wed, 31 Jul 2002 14:46:50 -0400

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Let me add to that, Jans, and to other takes from our Guru's appearance.
I taped it, and just reviewed the interview.  Here are some verbatims
pertinent to comments herein since his appearance:

KUDLOW:
I read the paper (IBD) every day; one in awhile I contribute to it.  So
they're very nice to me.  Bill O'Neil, do you feel this is the very
beginning of the upturn that can be sustained?

WON:
...the only thing I'm concerned about is not whether or not it has hit
bottom yet, but how long does it take us to really recover from this
because there has been severe damage.  50% of the people own stocks that
have lost 50-70% of their value.

...you don't come out of that just like nothing happened.  So where's
your new leadership going to come from? How long will it take to
recover? There haven't been very many IPO's.  I don't believe we'll make
a roaring bull market out of some of the old leaders, although they can
rally.  It looks like you probably made a bottom today but what we're
going to have to be concerned about is where your new leadership is
going to come from.

CRAMER:
As you know, I read your paper every day.  Now that the NYSE volume
topped NASDAQ, what's wrong with going back to stocks that pay
dividends...to find the legs of the new bull market?

WON:
I would be looking for stocks that have 10-12 quarters in a row of
earnings up with acceleration in earnings.  Companies that are really
leaders in their particular field.  Probably more of it is going to be
in the consumer side because history proves that the leaders of one
cycle don't necessarily come back and lead in the next cycle.

Cramer asked Siegel (the co-guest with WON) a question about new
"normal" PE's, but O'Neil answered with: 

...but the market is a sorting mechanism and assigns the PE's that need
to be for a particular stock.

(He then made an appeal for tax incentives for newcos)...because we have
no new leaders to lead a bull market.

KUDLOW:
Can you suggest some new leaders?

I think they'll be in the consumer sector.  I don't thing you're going
to make a new bull market out of AOL...it's got to be new names that
were not overplayed so much.

CRAMER:
We've got Autozone on next...

WON:
Autozone has excellent earnings and excellent management, but a lot is
going to depend on the market.  I think you've got to have some new
blood to help.  You can't make a new bull market out of five or ten
companies.  I think you need tax incentives from Washington, and I don't
thing they realize this yet.

My contribution for the day, folks.

Duke

- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Spencer48@aol.com
Sent: Wednesday, July 31, 2002 12:06 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Cramer

Duke:

      I saw the show also (Kudlow & Kramer), and I understood WON to say
that the leading industries that are leading us out of this Bear are
those which are in the consumer sector.  

     He specifically cited that techs-and especially the techs that have
fallen-may rally, but they are not (and will not be the) leaders.

                                 jans

In a message dated Mon, 29 Jul 2002 8:31:50 PM Eastern Standard Time,
dukemill@tampabay.rr.com writes:

> The only thing I learned from this show tonight is Autozone (I don't 
> have a position yet) is one hell of a company and possibly the "model"
for tomorrow's winners.  And Bill O'Neil pretty much brushed them off,
answering a question about Autozone with his "there are no apparent new
leaders" mantra.
>  
> For those of you who did not see the show tonight, you missed nothing 
> from Bill.  He just towed the usual CANSLIM Investors Corner line.
And obviously, no call on whether or not today was an FTD.  That remains
to be called after (way after?)
> the fact...as usual.
>  

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