Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's big picture/m
Date: Wed, 31 Jul 2002 23:25:46 -0400
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00CB_01C238E9.992947B0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Eric, I think the action on stocks like MSFT, C, and JPM simply confirm = what many have been saying, that is, the past leaders will not be the = leaders whenever we truly break free of this bear market. In the meantime, they will still see strong institutional support on = rallies, as they are very liquid, "big" names, "safe" stocks, especially = as a haven. So those money managers that cannot think, or read a chart, = won't hesitate to jump into them, and right back out again when they = fail to continue higher. - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Eric Jaenike=20 To: canslim group=20 Sent: Wednesday, July 31, 2002 11:33 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Today's big picture/m A quick note on today's Big Picture. Referring to action on the S&P, the = author states that price/volume action implies "mild accumulation". I = strongly disagree with that. I consider the action on that index to be a = sign of distribution as well, as it is indicative of stalling action. = From HTMMIS, 2nd edition, pg. 50: "On one of the days in the uptrend, = the total volume for the market will increase over the preceding day's = high volume, but the Dow's (or any index) closing average will show = stalling action, or substantially less upward movement, than on the = prior few days". One other note: the Nasdaq is the only primary index to have flashed a = follow through (not including the S&P 600). It also was the index that = experienced the nasty give back last Thursday. That giveback was not a = good sign. Also, the news that drove the giveback was ominous: Taiwan = Semiconductor, the largest chip fab in the industry, announced a nasty = revenue miss, revenue guidedown, capex reduction, and capacity = utilization reduction to 70%. That is a terrible sign for the chip = industry going forward. Also of interest is the NVDA miss last night, as = they sell into the PC industry (as well as to Xbox, but I consider that = to be an unimportant segment). So far, I consider the action in this latest rally to be very poor. For = those interested in another item to watch, I think the action in MSFT, = C, and JPM are of some importance (as well as the XLF in general). Their = breaks and subsequent (poor) rebounds are, in my opinion, an important = tell on where the market is. Eric - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Health - Feel better, live better - ------=_NextPart_000_00CB_01C238E9.992947B0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2716.2200" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Eric, I think the action on stocks like MSFT, C, = and JPM=20 simply confirm what many have been saying, that is, the past leaders = will not be=20 the leaders whenever we truly break free of this bear = market.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In the meantime, they will still see strong = institutional=20 support on rallies, as they are very liquid, "big" names, "safe" stocks, = especially as a haven. So those money managers that cannot think, or = read a=20 chart, won't hesitate to jump into them, and right back out again when = they fail=20 to continue higher.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20 <DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20 title=3Dericjaenike@yahoo.com href=3D"mailto:ericjaenike@yahoo.com">Eric = Jaenike</A>=20 </DIV> <DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim group</A> </DIV> <DIV><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, July 31, 2002 11:33 AM</DIV> <DIV><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Today's big picture/m</DIV></DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV> <P>A quick note on today's Big Picture. Referring to action on the = S&P, the=20 author states that price/volume action implies "mild accumulation". I = strongly=20 disagree with that. I consider the action on that index to be a sign of=20 distribution as well, as it is indicative of stalling action. From = HTMMIS,=20 2nd edition, pg. 50: "On one of the days in the uptrend, the total = volume for=20 the market will increase over the preceding day's high volume, but the = Dow's (or=20 any index) closing average will show stalling action, or substantially = less=20 upward movement, than on the prior few days".</P> <P>One other note: the Nasdaq is the only primary index to have flashed = a follow=20 through (not including the S&P 600). It also was the index that = experienced=20 the nasty give back last Thursday. That giveback was not a good sign. = Also, the=20 news that drove the giveback was ominous: Taiwan Semiconductor, the = largest chip=20 fab in the industry, announced a nasty revenue miss, revenue guidedown, = capex=20 reduction, and capacity utilization reduction to 70%. That is a terrible = sign=20 for the chip industry going forward. Also of interest is the NVDA miss = last=20 night, as they sell into the PC industry (as well as to Xbox, but I = consider=20 that to be an unimportant segment).</P> <P>So far, I consider the action in this latest rally to be very poor. = For those=20 interested in another item to watch, I think the action in MSFT, C, and = JPM are=20 of some importance (as well as the XLF in general). Their breaks and = subsequent=20 (poor) rebounds are, in my opinion, an important tell on where the = market=20 is.</P> <P>Eric</P> <P><BR> <HR SIZE=3D1> <B>Do You Yahoo!?</B><BR><A href=3D"http://health.yahoo.com/">Yahoo! = Health</A> -=20 Feel better, live better</BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_00CB_01C238E9.992947B0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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