Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Date: Fri, 2 Aug 2002 10:12:59 -0500
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Hi Donald,
My comments below were to show how the base count restarts, rather than =
looking back as far as 4 years ago at the chart and concluding that it =
is a 4 year C&H. That means that the stock broke out of a fresh 1st base =
August last year, and that the more recent action, for lack of a better =
term "Lazy W" would be considered on its own, rather than as a part of =
the 4 year pattern. That makes it a 2nd stage base.
More specifically, the recent base doesn't meet the criteria for either =
a C&H or the shallower Saucer & Handle because of that odd price peak in =
the center of the formation. More than anything, take a look at the =
volume pattern as the center of the LazyW forms, it's very high. =
Normally in a C&H or S&H, the volume dries up at the bottom of the cup. =
This is exactly the opposite, showing that SIE was trying desperately to =
breakout, but was knocked back into its consolidation on high volume.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Donald Wallker=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 9:14 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Katherine =3D =3D I didn't read your note about SIE before sending =
you the one about the IBD Article leading me to conclude that SIE has a =
Saucer-shaped Chart. And, I'm having dificulty trying to harmonize the =
IBD Article and your remarks. If you can give me a little help here I'd =
surely appreciate it.=3D=3D=3DDonald=20
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 9:36 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Hi Donald,
I think you've actually hit on a key element of chart reading in =
CANSLIM. That is, when there is a deep correction that undercuts the low =
of the last base, the base count is reset and you essentially "start =
fresh" with the chart. It's my understanding that this is why WON looks =
at formations as they form over the previous 52 wks. In the case of SIE, =
the base count was reset in '99 when the downside move passed below the =
last base formed in '98.
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/SIE10yrs080202.jpg=20
By August '01, you would then be looking at SIE to set up a brand =
new 1st stage base as it nears its 52 wk high, in this case a double =
bottom:
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/SIE080101.jpg
Important, as it allows you to take advantage of renewed growth in =
an industry and/or company. (Assuming this is not a cyclical move)
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Donald Wallker=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 3:48 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Katherine ---Maybe (tongue in cheek) SIEt hasn't broken out yet =
and is still working on the cup that it started back in March =
1998.---Donald=20
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, August 01, 2002 7:24 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Hi All,
Got a real kick out of this comment from Tim Truebenbach, a real =
pro and contributor to TradingMarkets.com:
"Sierra Health (SIE) hails from the leading HMO group. The stock =
has stellar fundamentals, but to this day, no one I have spoken with -- =
from fellow investors to people at IBD -- have been able to describe =
what kind of base it has produced. It has broken out of this "unknown" =
base and continues to push higher for the time being."
I've dubbed this a "Lazy W"...
See it at http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/LazyW.jpg=20
Katherine
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<DIV>Hi Donald,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>My comments below were to show how the base count restarts, rather =
than=20
looking back as far as 4 years ago at the chart and concluding that it =
is a 4=20
year C&H. That means that the stock broke out of a fresh 1st base =
August=20
last year, and that the more recent action, for lack of a =
better term=20
"Lazy W" would be considered on its own, rather than as a part of the 4 =
year=20
pattern. That makes it a 2nd stage base.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>More specifically, the recent base doesn't meet the criteria for =
either a=20
C&H or the shallower Saucer & Handle because of that odd price =
peak in=20
the center of the formation. More than anything, take a look at the =
volume=20
pattern as the center of the LazyW forms, it's very high. Normally in a =
C&H=20
or S&H, the volume dries up at the bottom of the cup. This is =
exactly the=20
opposite, showing that SIE was trying desperately to breakout, but was =
knocked=20
back into its consolidation on high volume.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddougald@dmv.com href=3D"mailto:dougald@dmv.com">Donald =
Wallker</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, August 02, 2002 =
9:14=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Sometimes even the=20
Pros don't know</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine =3D =3D I didn't read =
your note about=20
SIE before sending you the one about the IBD Article leading me to =
conclude=20
that SIE has a Saucer-shaped Chart. And, I'm having=20
dificulty trying to harmonize the IBD Article and your remarks. =
If you=20
can give me a little help here I'd surely appreciate =
it.=3D=3D=3DDonald=20
</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, August 02, 2002 =
9:36=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Sometimes even=20
the Pros don't know</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Donald,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I think you've actually hit on a key element of chart reading =
in=20
CANSLIM. That is, when there is a deep correction that undercuts the =
low of=20
the last base, the base count is reset and you essentially "start =
fresh"=20
with the chart. It's my understanding that this is why WON looks at=20
formations as they form over the previous 52 wks. In the case of =
SIE, the=20
base count was reset in '99 when the downside move passed below the =
last=20
base formed in '98.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/SIE10yrs080202.jpg">http://Wall=
Street-LLC.com/canslim/SIE10yrs080202.jpg</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>By August '01, you would then be looking at SIE to set up a =
brand new=20
1st stage base as it nears its 52 wk high, in this case a double=20
bottom:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/SIE080101.jpg">http://WallStree=
t-LLC.com/canslim/SIE080101.jpg</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Important, as it allows you to take advantage of renewed growth =
in an=20
industry and/or company. (Assuming this is not a cyclical =
move)</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddougald@dmv.com href=3D"mailto:dougald@dmv.com">Donald =
Wallker</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, August 02, =
2002 3:48=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Sometimes even=20
the Pros don't know</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine ---Maybe (tongue in =
cheek) SIEt=20
hasn't broken out yet and is still working on the cup that it =
started back=20
in March 1998.---Donald </FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, August =
01, 2002=20
7:24 PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] =
Sometimes even=20
the Pros don't know</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi All,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Got a real kick out of this comment from Tim Truebenbach, a =
real=20
pro and contributor to TradingMarkets.com:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
<P><FONT face=3D"arial, helvetica" size=3D2><FONT =
color=3D#0000ff><B>"Sierra=20
Health</B></FONT> (<A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/ttage/goto~=
www.tradingmarkets.com~redirect.cfm?symbol=3DSIE">SIE</A>)=20
hails from the leading HMO group. The stock has stellar =
fundamentals,=20
but to this day, no one I have spoken with -- from fellow =
investors to=20
people at <I>IBD</I> -- have been able to describe what kind of =
base it=20
has produced. It has broken out of this "unknown" base and =
continues to=20
push higher for the time being."</FONT></P>
<P> </P>
<P>I've dubbed this a "Lazy W"...</P>
<P>See it at <A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/LazyW.jpg">http://WallStreet-LL=
C.com/canslim/LazyW.jpg</A>=20
</P>
<P> </P>
<P>Katherine</P>
=
<P> </P></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></=
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