Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Scott Gettis" <sgettis@ucla.edu>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Date: Fri, 2 Aug 2002 09:27:28 -0700
Previous Article (by Subject): Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know "Donald Wallker"
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here's my interpretation.
If we have to make up a name for the pattern that sie is forming, maybe it
is not really a sound base. I agree that sie at this moment seems to be a
leader in this market, but the base that it formed is too deep to be
considered a flat base, and it does not have the classic characteristics of
a double bottom. To me it looks most like a base on base structure; with
the first part from 4/30-6/19 - and the second part the most recent base -
which was rather short. Hey the pattern may work, in which case ill add the
lazy w to my list of charts to look for. But, in this market where
breakouts are still not working why try to force it with a price structure
that can be labeled suspect at best.
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 8:13 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Hi Donald,
My comments below were to show how the base count restarts, rather than
looking back as far as 4 years ago at the chart and concluding that it is a
4 year C&H. That means that the stock broke out of a fresh 1st base August
last year, and that the more recent action, for lack of a better term "Lazy
W" would be considered on its own, rather than as a part of the 4 year
pattern. That makes it a 2nd stage base.
More specifically, the recent base doesn't meet the criteria for either a
C&H or the shallower Saucer & Handle because of that odd price peak in the
center of the formation. More than anything, take a look at the volume
pattern as the center of the LazyW forms, it's very high. Normally in a C&H
or S&H, the volume dries up at the bottom of the cup. This is exactly the
opposite, showing that SIE was trying desperately to breakout, but was
knocked back into its consolidation on high volume.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From: Donald Wallker
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 9:14 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Katherine = = I didn't read your note about SIE before sending you the
one about the IBD Article leading me to conclude that SIE has a
Saucer-shaped Chart. And, I'm having dificulty trying to harmonize the IBD
Article and your remarks. If you can give me a little help here I'd surely
appreciate it.===Donald
----- Original Message -----
From: Katherine Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 9:36 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Hi Donald,
I think you've actually hit on a key element of chart reading in
CANSLIM. That is, when there is a deep correction that undercuts the low of
the last base, the base count is reset and you essentially "start fresh"
with the chart. It's my understanding that this is why WON looks at
formations as they form over the previous 52 wks. In the case of SIE, the
base count was reset in '99 when the downside move passed below the last
base formed in '98.
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/SIE10yrs080202.jpg
By August '01, you would then be looking at SIE to set up a brand new
1st stage base as it nears its 52 wk high, in this case a double bottom:
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/SIE080101.jpg
Important, as it allows you to take advantage of renewed growth in an
industry and/or company. (Assuming this is not a cyclical move)
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From: Donald Wallker
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 3:48 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Katherine ---Maybe (tongue in cheek) SIEt hasn't broken out yet and
is still working on the cup that it started back in March 1998.---Donald
----- Original Message -----
From: Katherine Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Thursday, August 01, 2002 7:24 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Hi All,
Got a real kick out of this comment from Tim Truebenbach, a real
pro and contributor to TradingMarkets.com:
"Sierra Health (SIE) hails from the leading HMO group. The stock
has stellar fundamentals, but to this day, no one I have spoken with -- from
fellow investors to people at IBD -- have been able to describe what kind of
base it has produced. It has broken out of this "unknown" base and continues
to push higher for the time being."
I've dubbed this a "Lazy W"...
See it at http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/LazyW.jpg
Katherine
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<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D019011616-02082002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>here's=20
my interpretation.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D019011616-02082002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D019011616-02082002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>If we=20
have to make up a name for the pattern that sie is forming, maybe it is =
not=20
really a sound base. I agree that sie at this moment seems to be a =
leader=20
in this market, but the base that it formed is too deep to be=20
considered a flat base, and it does not have the classic characteristics =
of a=20
double bottom. To me it looks most like a base on base structure; =
with the=20
first part from 4/30-6/19 - and the second part the most recent base - =
which was=20
rather short. Hey the pattern may work, in which case ill add the =
lazy w=20
to my list of charts to look for. But, in this market where =
breakouts are=20
still not working why try to force it with a price structure that =
can be=20
labeled suspect at best.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Katherine =
Malm<BR><B>Sent:</B> Friday, August 02, 2002 8:13 AM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes =
even the=20
Pros don't know<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Donald,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>My comments below were to show how the base count restarts, =
rather than=20
looking back as far as 4 years ago at the chart and concluding that it =
is a 4=20
year C&H. That means that the stock broke out of a fresh 1st base =
August=20
last year, and that the more recent action, for lack of a =
better=20
term "Lazy W" would be considered on its own, rather than as a part of =
the 4=20
year pattern. That makes it a 2nd stage base.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>More specifically, the recent base doesn't meet the criteria for =
either a=20
C&H or the shallower Saucer & Handle because of that odd price =
peak in=20
the center of the formation. More than anything, take a look at the =
volume=20
pattern as the center of the LazyW forms, it's very high. Normally in =
a=20
C&H or S&H, the volume dries up at the bottom of the cup. This =
is=20
exactly the opposite, showing that SIE was trying desperately to =
breakout, but=20
was knocked back into its consolidation on high volume.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddougald@dmv.com href=3D"mailto:dougald@dmv.com">Donald =
Wallker</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, August 02, 2002 =
9:14=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Sometimes even=20
the Pros don't know</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine =3D =3D I didn't =
read your note=20
about SIE before sending you the one about the IBD Article leading =
me to=20
conclude that SIE has a Saucer-shaped Chart. And, =
I'm =20
having dificulty trying to harmonize the IBD Article and your =
remarks. =20
If you can give me a little help here I'd surely appreciate =
it.=3D=3D=3DDonald=20
</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, August 02, =
2002 9:36=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Sometimes even=20
the Pros don't know</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Donald,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I think you've actually hit on a key element of chart reading =
in=20
CANSLIM. That is, when there is a deep correction that undercuts =
the low=20
of the last base, the base count is reset and you essentially =
"start=20
fresh" with the chart. It's my understanding that this is why WON =
looks at=20
formations as they form over the previous 52 wks. In the case of =
SIE, the=20
base count was reset in '99 when the downside move passed below =
the last=20
base formed in '98.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/SIE10yrs080202.jpg">http://Wall=
Street-LLC.com/canslim/SIE10yrs080202.jpg</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>By August '01, you would then be looking at SIE to set up a =
brand new=20
1st stage base as it nears its 52 wk high, in this case a double=20
bottom:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/SIE080101.jpg">http://WallStree=
t-LLC.com/canslim/SIE080101.jpg</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Important, as it allows you to take advantage of renewed =
growth in an=20
industry and/or company. (Assuming this is not a cyclical =
move)</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddougald@dmv.com =
href=3D"mailto:dougald@dmv.com">Donald=20
Wallker</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, August 02, =
2002 3:48=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Sometimes=20
even the Pros don't know</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine ---Maybe (tongue in =
cheek) SIEt=20
hasn't broken out yet and is still working on the cup that it =
started=20
back in March 1998.---Donald </FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net=20
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, August =
01, 2002=20
7:24 PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] =
Sometimes even=20
the Pros don't know</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi All,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Got a real kick out of this comment from Tim Truebenbach, =
a real=20
pro and contributor to TradingMarkets.com:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
<P><FONT face=3D"arial, helvetica" size=3D2><FONT =
color=3D#0000ff><B>"Sierra=20
Health</B></FONT> (<A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/ttage/goto~=
www.tradingmarkets.com~redirect.cfm?symbol=3DSIE">SIE</A>)=20
hails from the leading HMO group. The stock has stellar =
fundamentals,=20
but to this day, no one I have spoken with -- from fellow =
investors to=20
people at <I>IBD</I> -- have been able to describe what kind =
of base=20
it has produced. It has broken out of this "unknown" base and=20
continues to push higher for the time being."</FONT></P>
<P> </P>
<P>I've dubbed this a "Lazy W"...</P>
<P>See it at <A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/LazyW.jpg">http://WallStreet-LL=
C.com/canslim/LazyW.jpg</A>=20
</P>
<P> </P>
<P>Katherine</P>
=
<P> </P></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></=
BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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