Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "John Calkins" <jcalkins@olypen.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Date: Sat, 3 Aug 2002 07:30:12 -0700
Previous Article (by Date): Re: [CANSLIM] Market trend "Tom Worley"
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Scott,
I would have to agree with your failing base on base pattern.
Katherine, would it be better to consider staying with the classic =
double bottom than trying to interpret a new lazy W pattern? Doesn't =
this relate to how WON developed the CWH? Didn't He, Livermore and =
others already explore these regions and shouldn't we learn from them, =
or do we always question their results. I realize that we need to learn =
from each other how to interpret these patterns. It's like trying to =
explore too far off the beaten path, like a child getting too close to =
the crumbling edge or using a 10% stop rule instead of an 8%. Is a lazy =
W too close to the crumbling edge especially in this market? We are =
told that these patterns are useful in a bull market. The bear pops up =
on Thursday and Friday, then a pattern seems to fail and again reminds =
us to get back on the path.. Again and again, the closer I stay to the =
classic patterns, the less I am inclined to get into this market. =
CANSLIM and WON's Technical's seem to be working for me by keeping me on =
the sidelines until this market speaks to me in a clearer voice.
John=20
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Scott Gettis=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 9:27 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
here's my interpretation.
If we have to make up a name for the pattern that sie is forming, =
maybe it is not really a sound base. I agree that sie at this moment =
seems to be a leader in this market, but the base that it formed is too =
deep to be considered a flat base, and it does not have the classic =
characteristics of a double bottom. To me it looks most like a base on =
base structure; with the first part from 4/30-6/19 - and the second part =
the most recent base - which was rather short. Hey the pattern may =
work, in which case ill add the lazy w to my list of charts to look for. =
But, in this market where breakouts are still not working why try to =
force it with a price structure that can be labeled suspect at best.
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 8:13 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Hi Donald,
My comments below were to show how the base count restarts, rather =
than looking back as far as 4 years ago at the chart and concluding that =
it is a 4 year C&H. That means that the stock broke out of a fresh 1st =
base August last year, and that the more recent action, for lack of a =
better term "Lazy W" would be considered on its own, rather than as a =
part of the 4 year pattern. That makes it a 2nd stage base.
More specifically, the recent base doesn't meet the criteria for =
either a C&H or the shallower Saucer & Handle because of that odd price =
peak in the center of the formation. More than anything, take a look at =
the volume pattern as the center of the LazyW forms, it's very high. =
Normally in a C&H or S&H, the volume dries up at the bottom of the cup. =
This is exactly the opposite, showing that SIE was trying desperately to =
breakout, but was knocked back into its consolidation on high volume.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Donald Wallker=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 9:14 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Katherine =3D =3D I didn't read your note about SIE before =
sending you the one about the IBD Article leading me to conclude that =
SIE has a Saucer-shaped Chart. And, I'm having dificulty trying to =
harmonize the IBD Article and your remarks. If you can give me a little =
help here I'd surely appreciate it.=3D=3D=3DDonald=20
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 9:36 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Hi Donald,
I think you've actually hit on a key element of chart reading in =
CANSLIM. That is, when there is a deep correction that undercuts the low =
of the last base, the base count is reset and you essentially "start =
fresh" with the chart. It's my understanding that this is why WON looks =
at formations as they form over the previous 52 wks. In the case of SIE, =
the base count was reset in '99 when the downside move passed below the =
last base formed in '98.
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/SIE10yrs080202.jpg=20
By August '01, you would then be looking at SIE to set up a =
brand new 1st stage base as it nears its 52 wk high, in this case a =
double bottom:
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/SIE080101.jpg
Important, as it allows you to take advantage of renewed growth =
in an industry and/or company. (Assuming this is not a cyclical move)
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Donald Wallker=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 3:48 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Katherine ---Maybe (tongue in cheek) SIEt hasn't broken out =
yet and is still working on the cup that it started back in March =
1998.---Donald=20
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, August 01, 2002 7:24 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Hi All,
Got a real kick out of this comment from Tim Truebenbach, a =
real pro and contributor to TradingMarkets.com:
"Sierra Health (SIE) hails from the leading HMO group. The =
stock has stellar fundamentals, but to this day, no one I have spoken =
with -- from fellow investors to people at IBD -- have been able to =
describe what kind of base it has produced. It has broken out of this =
"unknown" base and continues to push higher for the time being."
I've dubbed this a "Lazy W"...
See it at http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/LazyW.jpg=20
Katherine
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Scott,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I would have to agree with your failing =
base on=20
base pattern.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine, would it be better to =
consider staying=20
with the classic double bottom than trying to interpret a new lazy W=20
pattern? Doesn't this relate to how WON developed the CWH? =
Didn't=20
He, Livermore and others already explore these regions and shouldn't we =
learn=20
from them, or do we always question their results. I realize that =
we need=20
to learn from each other how to interpret these patterns. It's =
like trying=20
to explore too far off the beaten path, like a child getting too =
close to=20
the crumbling edge or using a 10% stop rule instead of an 8%. Is=20
a lazy W too close to the crumbling edge especially in this =
market? =20
We are told that these patterns are useful in a bull =
market. The bear=20
pops up on Thursday and Friday, then a pattern seems to fail and again =
reminds=20
us to get back on the path.. Again and again, the closer I stay to =
the=20
classic patterns, the less I am inclined to get into this market. =
CANSLIM=20
and WON's Technical's seem to be working for me by keeping me =
on the=20
sidelines until this market speaks to me in a clearer =
voice.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>John </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dsgettis@ucla.edu href=3D"mailto:sgettis@ucla.edu">Scott =
Gettis</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, August 02, 2002 =
9:27=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] =
Sometimes even the=20
Pros don't know</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D019011616-02082002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2>here's my interpretation.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D019011616-02082002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D019011616-02082002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>If=20
we have to make up a name for the pattern that sie is forming, maybe =
it is not=20
really a sound base. I agree that sie at this moment seems to be =
a=20
leader in this market, but the base that it formed is too =
deep to be=20
considered a flat base, and it does not have the classic =
characteristics of a=20
double bottom. To me it looks most like a base on base =
structure; with=20
the first part from 4/30-6/19 - and the second part the most recent =
base -=20
which was rather short. Hey the pattern may work, in which case =
ill add=20
the lazy w to my list of charts to look for. But, in this market =
where=20
breakouts are still not working why try to force it with a price=20
structure that can be labeled suspect at best.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of =
</B>Katherine=20
Malm<BR><B>Sent:</B> Friday, August 02, 2002 8:13 AM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Sometimes even=20
the Pros don't know<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Donald,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>My comments below were to show how the base count restarts, =
rather than=20
looking back as far as 4 years ago at the chart and concluding that =
it is a=20
4 year C&H. That means that the stock broke out of a fresh 1st =
base=20
August last year, and that the more recent action, for =
lack of a=20
better term "Lazy W" would be considered on its own, rather than as =
a part=20
of the 4 year pattern. That makes it a 2nd stage base.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>More specifically, the recent base doesn't meet the criteria =
for either=20
a C&H or the shallower Saucer & Handle because of that odd =
price=20
peak in the center of the formation. More than anything, take a look =
at the=20
volume pattern as the center of the LazyW forms, it's very high. =
Normally in=20
a C&H or S&H, the volume dries up at the bottom of the cup. =
This is=20
exactly the opposite, showing that SIE was trying desperately to =
breakout,=20
but was knocked back into its consolidation on high volume.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddougald@dmv.com href=3D"mailto:dougald@dmv.com">Donald =
Wallker</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, August 02, =
2002 9:14=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Sometimes even=20
the Pros don't know</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine =3D =3D I didn't =
read your note=20
about SIE before sending you the one about the IBD Article leading =
me to=20
conclude that SIE has a Saucer-shaped Chart. And, =
I'm =20
having dificulty trying to harmonize the IBD Article and your=20
remarks. If you can give me a little help here I'd surely =
appreciate=20
it.=3D=3D=3DDonald </FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, August 02, =
2002 9:36=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Sometimes=20
even the Pros don't know</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Donald,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I think you've actually hit on a key element of chart =
reading in=20
CANSLIM. That is, when there is a deep correction that undercuts =
the low=20
of the last base, the base count is reset and you essentially =
"start=20
fresh" with the chart. It's my understanding that this is why =
WON looks=20
at formations as they form over the previous 52 wks. In the case =
of SIE,=20
the base count was reset in '99 when the downside move passed =
below the=20
last base formed in '98.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/SIE10yrs080202.jpg">http://Wall=
Street-LLC.com/canslim/SIE10yrs080202.jpg</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>By August '01, you would then be looking at SIE to set up a =
brand=20
new 1st stage base as it nears its 52 wk high, in this case a =
double=20
bottom:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/SIE080101.jpg">http://WallStree=
t-LLC.com/canslim/SIE080101.jpg</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Important, as it allows you to take advantage of renewed =
growth in=20
an industry and/or company. (Assuming this is not a cyclical =
move)</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddougald@dmv.com =
href=3D"mailto:dougald@dmv.com">Donald=20
Wallker</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, August =
02, 2002=20
3:48 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Sometimes=20
even the Pros don't know</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine ---Maybe (tongue in =
cheek) SIEt=20
hasn't broken out yet and is still working on the cup that it =
started=20
back in March 1998.---Donald </FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net=20
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine Malm</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, =
August 01, 2002=20
7:24 PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] =
Sometimes=20
even the Pros don't know</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi All,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Got a real kick out of this comment from Tim =
Truebenbach, a=20
real pro and contributor to TradingMarkets.com:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
<P><FONT face=3D"arial, helvetica" size=3D2><FONT=20
color=3D#0000ff><B>"Sierra Health</B></FONT> (<A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/ttage/goto~=
www.tradingmarkets.com~redirect.cfm?symbol=3DSIE">SIE</A>)=20
hails from the leading HMO group. The stock has stellar=20
fundamentals, but to this day, no one I have spoken with -- =
from=20
fellow investors to people at <I>IBD</I> -- have been able =
to=20
describe what kind of base it has produced. It has broken =
out of=20
this "unknown" base and continues to push higher for the =
time=20
being."</FONT></P>
<P> </P>
<P>I've dubbed this a "Lazy W"...</P>
<P>See it at <A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/LazyW.jpg">http://WallStreet-LL=
C.com/canslim/LazyW.jpg</A>=20
</P>
<P> </P>
<P>Katherine</P>
=
<P> </P></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></=
BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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