Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Donald Wallker" <dougald@dmv.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Date: Sat, 3 Aug 2002 13:08:10 -0400
Previous Article (by Subject): Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know "Katherine Malm"
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There isn't much doubt that sometimes the Pro's don't know. In the IBD =
of Friday, Aug.2, on page B8 in Col.1, there is a Article that hypes =
the Shares of University of Phoenix Online (UOPX). "It found support at =
its 200-day line this week. Look for it to log some high-volume weeks =
at it climbs the right side of its base. The online educator's =
fundamental's excel.'" And so on about huge percentage growths in =
Profits, sales and ROI. I initially reviewed the IBD Ratings and found =
them to be 99, 60I, D, A and B minus and questioned the Article's =
generalized sttement that the "fundamentals excel." Then, upon reviewing =
the IBD Chart I realized that the Article was probably written on =
Thursday, before the close of the market, for publication on Friday. it =
being noted that the stock fell $0.38 below its 200 day line that day. =
Then, on Friday, the day of publication, the stock fell an additional =
$1.28. for a total of $1.66 or substantially %6.3 from the close shown =
in the NASDAQ Chart accompaning the Article. So, it looks like this =
stock is in for either a "W" or "Lazy W " shaped base after all. In =
any event it surely doesn't look like its finished with it's base. =
Would sombody else please comment about the base (if any ) formed by =
UOPX.---- Donald =20
----- Original Message -----=20
From: John Calkins=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Saturday, August 03, 2002 10:30 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Scott,
I would have to agree with your failing base on base pattern.
Katherine, would it be better to consider staying with the classic =
double bottom than trying to interpret a new lazy W pattern? Doesn't =
this relate to how WON developed the CWH? Didn't He, Livermore and =
others already explore these regions and shouldn't we learn from them, =
or do we always question their results. I realize that we need to learn =
from each other how to interpret these patterns. It's like trying to =
explore too far off the beaten path, like a child getting too close to =
the crumbling edge or using a 10% stop rule instead of an 8%. Is a lazy =
W too close to the crumbling edge especially in this market? We are =
told that these patterns are useful in a bull market. The bear pops up =
on Thursday and Friday, then a pattern seems to fail and again reminds =
us to get back on the path.. Again and again, the closer I stay to the =
classic patterns, the less I am inclined to get into this market. =
CANSLIM and WON's Technical's seem to be working for me by keeping me on =
the sidelines until this market speaks to me in a clearer voice.
John=20
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Scott Gettis=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 9:27 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
here's my interpretation.
If we have to make up a name for the pattern that sie is forming, =
maybe it is not really a sound base. I agree that sie at this moment =
seems to be a leader in this market, but the base that it formed is too =
deep to be considered a flat base, and it does not have the classic =
characteristics of a double bottom. To me it looks most like a base on =
base structure; with the first part from 4/30-6/19 - and the second part =
the most recent base - which was rather short. Hey the pattern may =
work, in which case ill add the lazy w to my list of charts to look for. =
But, in this market where breakouts are still not working why try to =
force it with a price structure that can be labeled suspect at best.
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 8:13 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Hi Donald,
My comments below were to show how the base count restarts, rather =
than looking back as far as 4 years ago at the chart and concluding that =
it is a 4 year C&H. That means that the stock broke out of a fresh 1st =
base August last year, and that the more recent action, for lack of a =
better term "Lazy W" would be considered on its own, rather than as a =
part of the 4 year pattern. That makes it a 2nd stage base.
More specifically, the recent base doesn't meet the criteria for =
either a C&H or the shallower Saucer & Handle because of that odd price =
peak in the center of the formation. More than anything, take a look at =
the volume pattern as the center of the LazyW forms, it's very high. =
Normally in a C&H or S&H, the volume dries up at the bottom of the cup. =
This is exactly the opposite, showing that SIE was trying desperately to =
breakout, but was knocked back into its consolidation on high volume.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Donald Wallker=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 9:14 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Katherine =3D =3D I didn't read your note about SIE before =
sending you the one about the IBD Article leading me to conclude that =
SIE has a Saucer-shaped Chart. And, I'm having dificulty trying to =
harmonize the IBD Article and your remarks. If you can give me a little =
help here I'd surely appreciate it.=3D=3D=3DDonald=20
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 9:36 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Hi Donald,
I think you've actually hit on a key element of chart reading =
in CANSLIM. That is, when there is a deep correction that undercuts the =
low of the last base, the base count is reset and you essentially "start =
fresh" with the chart. It's my understanding that this is why WON looks =
at formations as they form over the previous 52 wks. In the case of SIE, =
the base count was reset in '99 when the downside move passed below the =
last base formed in '98.
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/SIE10yrs080202.jpg=20
By August '01, you would then be looking at SIE to set up a =
brand new 1st stage base as it nears its 52 wk high, in this case a =
double bottom:
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/SIE080101.jpg
Important, as it allows you to take advantage of renewed =
growth in an industry and/or company. (Assuming this is not a cyclical =
move)
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Donald Wallker=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, August 02, 2002 3:48 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Katherine ---Maybe (tongue in cheek) SIEt hasn't broken out =
yet and is still working on the cup that it started back in March =
1998.---Donald=20
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, August 01, 2002 7:24 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Sometimes even the Pros don't know
Hi All,
Got a real kick out of this comment from Tim Truebenbach, =
a real pro and contributor to TradingMarkets.com:
"Sierra Health (SIE) hails from the leading HMO group. The =
stock has stellar fundamentals, but to this day, no one I have spoken =
with -- from fellow investors to people at IBD -- have been able to =
describe what kind of base it has produced. It has broken out of this =
"unknown" base and continues to push higher for the time being."
I've dubbed this a "Lazy W"...
See it at http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/LazyW.jpg=20
Katherine
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>There isn't much doubt that sometimes =
the Pro's=20
don't know. In the IBD of Friday, Aug.2, on page B8 in =
Col.1, there=20
is a Article that hypes the Shares of University of Phoenix Online =
(UOPX). "It=20
found support at its 200-day line this week. Look for it to log =
some=20
high-volume weeks at it climbs the right side of its base. The =
online=20
educator's fundamental's excel.'" And so on about huge percentage =
growths=20
in Profits, sales and ROI. I initially reviewed the IBD=20
Ratings and found them to be 99, 60I, D, A and B minus =
and questioned=20
the Article's generalized sttement that the "fundamentals excel." =
Then,=20
upon reviewing the IBD Chart I realized that the Article was =
probably=20
written on Thursday, before the close of the market, for =
publication on=20
Friday. it being noted that the stock fell $0.38 below its 200 day =
line=20
that day. Then, on Friday, the day of publication, the stock fell =
an=20
additional $1.28. for a total of $1.66 or substantially %6.3 from the =
close=20
shown in the NASDAQ Chart accompaning the Article. So, it looks like =
this stock=20
is in for either a "W" or "Lazy W " shaped base after all. =
In any=20
event it surely doesn't look like its finished with it's base. =
Would=20
sombody else please comment about the base (if any ) formed=20
by UOPX.---- Donald </FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Djcalkins@olypen.com =
href=3D"mailto:jcalkins@olypen.com">John=20
Calkins</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, August 03, 2002 =
10:30=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Sometimes even the=20
Pros don't know</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Scott,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I would have to agree with your =
failing base on=20
base pattern.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine, would it be better to =
consider staying=20
with the classic double bottom than trying to interpret a new lazy W=20
pattern? Doesn't this relate to how WON developed the CWH? =
Didn't=20
He, Livermore and others already explore these regions and shouldn't =
we learn=20
from them, or do we always question their results. I realize =
that we=20
need to learn from each other how to interpret these patterns. =
It's like=20
trying to explore too far off the beaten path, like a child =
getting too=20
close to the crumbling edge or using a 10% stop rule instead of an =
8%. =20
Is a lazy W too close to the crumbling edge especially in this=20
market? We are told that these patterns are useful in a bull=20
market. The bear pops up on Thursday and Friday, then a =
pattern=20
seems to fail and again reminds us to get back on the path.. =
Again and=20
again, the closer I stay to the classic patterns, the less I am =
inclined to=20
get into this market. CANSLIM and WON's Technical's seem to =
be working for me by keeping me on the sidelines until this =
market speaks=20
to me in a clearer voice.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>John </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dsgettis@ucla.edu href=3D"mailto:sgettis@ucla.edu">Scott =
Gettis</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, August 02, 2002 =
9:27=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] =
Sometimes even=20
the Pros don't know</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D019011616-02082002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2>here's my interpretation.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D019011616-02082002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D019011616-02082002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>If=20
we have to make up a name for the pattern that sie is forming, maybe =
it is=20
not really a sound base. I agree that sie at this moment seems =
to be a=20
leader in this market, but the base that it formed is too =
deep to=20
be considered a flat base, and it does not have the classic =
characteristics=20
of a double bottom. To me it looks most like a base on base =
structure;=20
with the first part from 4/30-6/19 - and the second part the most =
recent=20
base - which was rather short. Hey the pattern may work, in =
which case=20
ill add the lazy w to my list of charts to look for. But, in =
this=20
market where breakouts are still not working why try to force =
it with a=20
price structure that can be labeled suspect at =
best.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of =
</B>Katherine=20
Malm<BR><B>Sent:</B> Friday, August 02, 2002 8:13 AM<BR><B>To:</B> =
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Sometimes even=20
the Pros don't know<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Donald,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>My comments below were to show how the base count restarts, =
rather=20
than looking back as far as 4 years ago at the chart and =
concluding that=20
it is a 4 year C&H. That means that the stock broke out of a =
fresh 1st=20
base August last year, and that the more recent action, =
for lack=20
of a better term "Lazy W" would be considered on its own, rather =
than as a=20
part of the 4 year pattern. That makes it a 2nd stage base.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>More specifically, the recent base doesn't meet the criteria =
for=20
either a C&H or the shallower Saucer & Handle because of =
that odd=20
price peak in the center of the formation. More than anything, =
take a look=20
at the volume pattern as the center of the LazyW forms, it's very =
high.=20
Normally in a C&H or S&H, the volume dries up at the =
bottom of the=20
cup. This is exactly the opposite, showing that SIE was trying =
desperately=20
to breakout, but was knocked back into its consolidation on high=20
volume.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddougald@dmv.com =
href=3D"mailto:dougald@dmv.com">Donald=20
Wallker</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, August 02, =
2002 9:14=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Sometimes=20
even the Pros don't know</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine =3D =3D I =
didn't read your note=20
about SIE before sending you the one about the IBD Article =
leading me to=20
conclude that SIE has a Saucer-shaped Chart. And, =
I'm =20
having dificulty trying to harmonize the IBD Article and your=20
remarks. If you can give me a little help here I'd surely=20
appreciate it.=3D=3D=3DDonald </FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net=20
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, August =
02, 2002=20
9:36 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Sometimes=20
even the Pros don't know</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Donald,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I think you've actually hit on a key element of chart =
reading in=20
CANSLIM. That is, when there is a deep correction that =
undercuts the=20
low of the last base, the base count is reset and you =
essentially=20
"start fresh" with the chart. It's my understanding that this =
is why=20
WON looks at formations as they form over the previous 52 wks. =
In the=20
case of SIE, the base count was reset in '99 when the downside =
move=20
passed below the last base formed in '98.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/SIE10yrs080202.jpg">http://Wall=
Street-LLC.com/canslim/SIE10yrs080202.jpg</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>By August '01, you would then be looking at SIE to set up =
a brand=20
new 1st stage base as it nears its 52 wk high, in this case a =
double=20
bottom:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/SIE080101.jpg">http://WallStree=
t-LLC.com/canslim/SIE080101.jpg</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Important, as it allows you to take advantage of renewed =
growth=20
in an industry and/or company. (Assuming this is not a =
cyclical=20
move)</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddougald@dmv.com =
href=3D"mailto:dougald@dmv.com">Donald=20
Wallker</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, August =
02, 2002=20
3:48 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
Sometimes even the Pros don't know</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine ---Maybe (tongue =
in cheek)=20
SIEt hasn't broken out yet and is still working on the cup =
that it=20
started back in March 1998.---Donald </FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message =
- ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; =
font-color: black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net=20
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine Malm</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, =
August 01,=20
2002 7:24 PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] =
Sometimes=20
even the Pros don't know</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi All,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Got a real kick out of this comment from Tim =
Truebenbach, a=20
real pro and contributor to TradingMarkets.com:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
<P><FONT face=3D"arial, helvetica" size=3D2><FONT=20
color=3D#0000ff><B>"Sierra Health</B></FONT> (<A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/ttage/goto~=
www.tradingmarkets.com~redirect.cfm?symbol=3DSIE">SIE</A>)=20
hails from the leading HMO group. The stock has stellar=20
fundamentals, but to this day, no one I have spoken with =
- -- from=20
fellow investors to people at <I>IBD</I> -- have been able =
to=20
describe what kind of base it has produced. It has broken =
out of=20
this "unknown" base and continues to push higher for the =
time=20
being."</FONT></P>
<P> </P>
<P>I've dubbed this a "Lazy W"...</P>
<P>See it at <A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/LazyW.jpg">http://WallStreet-LL=
C.com/canslim/LazyW.jpg</A>=20
</P>
<P> </P>
<P>Katherine</P>
=
<P> </P></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></=
BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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