RE: [CANSLIM] Identifying NEW leaders

From: "Rocky Sanghvi" <rs@mylodestar.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Identifying NEW leaders
Date: Tue, 6 Aug 2002 16:43:17 -0400
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Fanus and others,

Your responses are truly intelligent and appreciated.  I was not trying to
compare chips to OS.  I was referring to the fact that there are some pretty
impressive and cheap machines being churned out.  Yeah maybe the mainframes
are still around but are they a growth industry?  The midmarket customers
will be sorely tempted to buy these lower-end (yes Microsoft/Linux OS based)
servers.  Windows is steadily improving its reliability (I have customers on
Windows - midmarket customers - 250 mil revenue, running ERP systems who do
not need to constantly reboot every week).

IBM chose the Linux route for a very good reason (its sees the change
happening - Enterprise Class Customers may begin the Linux transition).  Sun
/ HP now have 2 choices.  If they want to compete in the midmarket they have
to work on solutions that are competitive to midmarket customers.  Otherwise
they can continue to play in the highly competitive Fortune Enterprise class
customer market (24x7 uptime, highly reduntant, fault tolerant etc etc) who
need all the jazz and are willing to shell out the mega bucks.

Anyway, this is an off the cuff response - just something to think about.
And I respect my buddy's knowledge tremendously.

IMHO, whether its consumer products, hardware etc - spread your bets on the
path of change.

Rocky

- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Fanus
Sent: Tuesday, August 06, 2002 1:25 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Identifying NEW leaders


Rocky

You are comparing a chip (Xion, Titanium) with an
operating system (Unix). This is comparing apples with
oranges.  You have to compare operating system with
operating system in this case it would be Unix with
NT/2000/XP.  And there is still no comparison between
the two.

I am in the IT outsourcing/consulting industry and
only the smaller comapies will use a Microsoft setup.
The bigger companies which require absolute
reliablitly still go for the bigger Unix platforms.
Our customers on Microsoft platforms still have to
reboot their servers once a week, where a Unix system
run for months without requiring a reboot.

Maybe the initial cost for a dell server is cheaper,
but if a 24x7 company lose thousounds of dollars each
time the server go down, then the cost is made up
pretty quickly by the more initially expensive server.

The Xion and Titanium chipsets might be gaining some
ground, but they are still hampered by the Window OS.
Of course Linux on them could make them more reliable
and more cost effective.

In the long run, I just don't see customers who have
already spent millions of dollars on stable
environments, switch over to a less reliable platform.
 I think Unix will stay around for a long time. After
all, I wouldn't be surprised if people were saying 20
years back that mainframes is history too and yet we
have several customers still running on mainframes.

Ken to answer you question (assuming you are reading
this), I don't think AMD will overtake Intel. They
will just settle in a comfortable number 2 spot. And
with regard to new leaders, I just don't see any which
jump out to me currently.

- - Fanus

- --- Rocky Sanghvi <rs@mylodestar.com> wrote:
> Kent,
>
> Excellent question.  I was recently speaking to a
> buddy of mine who is a
> guru in Operating systems and Databases.  He is of
> the opinion that with the
> new Xion and Titanium chips - Unix is history!
> Atleast the expensive
> flavors of Unix are.  Linux may stick around because
> its open source.
>
> These new chips are so incredibly fast and cheap
> that one of my clients
> recently invested in a 100K Dell server getting all
> the power, speed and
> convenience of a million dollar Sun box.  One of our
> employees is a die-hard
> Unix fan and his words were "Man this is a sweet
> machine"
>
> What does that mean for the next 5-10 years.  I
> forsee tremendous
> consolidation in the Computer / Server space.  Money
> can be made by
> spreading your bets on the path of change.
> Thoughts?
>
> Rocky
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf
> Of Kent Norman
> Sent: Tuesday, August 06, 2002 12:03 AM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Identifying NEW leaders
>
>
> Since we should be on the watch for new leadership
> next time around,
> what does the group think of AMDs chances of
> overtaking Intel?
>
> What other candidates do you hope/see coming up (not
> necessarily in
> chips).
>
> thanks
> Kent Norman
>
> =====
> Opportunities always look bigger going than coming.
>
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