Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Identifying NEW leaders
Date: Wed, 07 Aug 2002 14:31:04 -0700
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Winston. Thank you for the analysis. One thing I would add is that the forward estimates are strong - $2.30-$2.35 for this year, and backlog is up 25% from Dec 31.
IMHO, the chart that has the most positive potential is the 2-year weekly chart. It has the potential to show a strong C&H, where it is currently at the bottom of the H and just around 15% below the handle high. But it definitely needs to develop futher, and would have to move through $33 on a good increase in ADV.
I also see the weekly moving averages still trending up. Why do your long-term charts point down?
Thanks again,
Ian
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Winston Little
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Wednesday, August 07, 2002 1:45 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Identifying NEW leaders
CBI was offered for comment.
My viiews are:
Earnings cause some concern.
Q4 of 2000 had a substantial loss of (-$4.18) and Q2 of 2001 also had a loss of (-$0.13).
The last four quarters were all positive and strong ($1.91), but I could not find a pattern in the flow of earnings.
Revenues grew in all four quarters of 2000 and 2001, then fell in Q1 and Q2 of 2002, again making me uneasy.
Looking at the price-volume chart, I see relatively light trading (I prefer at least 80,000 to 100,000 shares/day).
Some increase occurs at about 02 July, but on an irregular basis.
Price had been falling from 14 May until 23 July, then turned up.
Last three days were down.
Next I looked at a three year and a five year chart.
Extrapolation on both of these imply that the next move is down.
In summary:
C= quarterly eps growing but irregular
A= growing in last two years (this smoothes out the irregular quarters)
N= Moved from bridge building to newer storage tanks including use for cryogenic and microelectronics
S = ???? 21 million shares outstanding (47,000 traded/day). Market Cap = $549 million.
L = Is #2 in group #63
I = appears a little weak ( but they have been sneaking in since 02 July)
M= Quick rotating market
I need to see a little more action up or down before I would commit or avoid this one, but it is certainly a good candidate to watch.
----- Original Message -----
From: Ian
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Wednesday, August 07, 2002 3:38 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Identifying NEW leaders
In light of the fact that these are extraordinary times, I'll throw one out with a terribly ugly chart, but very solid current and forward CANSLIM fundamentals ... (and besides, I love their name - the Engineer in me has always wanted to buy stocks like this): CBI-NYSE, Chicago Bridge and Iron
I am particularly intrigued by the combination of a strong grwing backlog, relatively low historical valuation and a sustained recent increase in ADV. However, the chart is awful. Any opinions on this one?
Ian
BTW - I qualify these as 'extraordinary times' because I've had no trouble finding strong groups/sectors/stocks at any point in the last few years, until this past June. It amazes me that everything can be weak simultaneously.
----- Original Message -----
From: Vanchee1@aol.com
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Wednesday, August 07, 2002 11:38 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Identifying NEW leaders
Here is one similar to CHTT, what do you think.
DLI, Rev last qtr of 93 mil, EPS of .53, dept/equity .97, shrs out 8.6, float 4.7
CHTT Rev last qtr of 58 mil, EPS of .58, dept/equity 4.03, shrs out 9.5, float 8.1
CHTT does have double the margin but much more dept. comments
Chris
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Winston. Thank you for the analysis. One thing I would add is
that the forward estimates are strong - $2.30-$2.35 for this year, and backlog
is up 25% from Dec 31.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>IMHO, the chart that has the most positive potential is the
2-year weekly chart. It has the potential to show a strong C&H,
where it is currently at the bottom of the H and just around 15% below the
handle high. But it definitely needs to develop futher, and would have to move
through $33 on a good increase in ADV.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I also see the weekly moving averages still trending up. Why
do your long-term charts point down?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Thanks again,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:wlittle1@peoplepc.com" title=wlittle1@peoplepc.com>Winston
Little</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, August 07, 2002 1:45
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Identifying NEW
leaders</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>CBI was offered for comment.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>My viiews are:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Earnings cause some concern.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Q4 of 2000 had a substantial loss of (-$4.18) and Q2
of 2001 also had a loss of (-$0.13).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The last four quarters were all positive and strong ($1.91),
but I could not find a pattern in the flow of earnings.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Revenues grew in all four quarters of 2000 and 2001, then
fell in Q1 and Q2 of 2002, again making me uneasy.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Looking at the price-volume chart, I see relatively light
trading (I prefer at least 80,000 to 100,000 shares/day).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Some increase occurs at about 02 July, but on an irregular
basis.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Price had been falling from 14 May until 23 July, then
turned up.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Last three days were down.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Next I looked at a three year and a five year
chart.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Extrapolation on both of these imply that the next move is
down.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>In summary:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>C= quarterly eps growing but irregular</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>A= growing in last two years (this smoothes out the
irregular quarters)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>N= Moved from bridge building to newer storage tanks
including use for cryogenic and microelectronics</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>S = ???? 21 million shares outstanding (47,000
traded/day). Market Cap = $549 million.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>L = Is #2 in group #63</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I = appears a little weak ( but they have been sneaking in
since 02 July)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>M= Quick rotating market</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I need to see a little more action up or down before I
would commit or avoid this one, but it is certainly a good candidate to
watch.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca" title=ianstm@shaw.ca>Ian</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, August 07, 2002 3:38
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Identifying NEW
leaders</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>In light of the fact that these are extraordinary times,
I'll throw one out with a terribly ugly chart, but very solid current and
forward CANSLIM fundamentals ... (and besides, I love their name - the
Engineer in me has always wanted to buy stocks like this): CBI-NYSE, Chicago
Bridge and Iron</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I am particularly intrigued by the combination of a strong
grwing backlog, relatively low historical valuation and a sustained recent
increase in ADV. However, the chart is awful. Any opinions on this
one?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>BTW - I qualify these as 'extraordinary times' because
I've had no trouble finding strong groups/sectors/stocks at any point in the
last few years, until this past June. It amazes me that everything can be
weak simultaneously.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:Vanchee1@aol.com"
title=Vanchee1@aol.com>Vanchee1@aol.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, August 07, 2002
11:38 AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Identifying
NEW leaders</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><FONT face=arial,helvetica><FONT face="Century Gothic"
lang=0 size=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF">Here is one similar to CHTT, what do you
think.<BR><BR>DLI, Rev last qtr of 93 mil, EPS of .53, dept/equity
.97, shrs out 8.6, float 4.7<BR><BR>CHTT Rev last qtr of 58 mil, EPS of
.58, dept/equity 4.03, shrs out 9.5, float 8.1<BR><BR>CHTT does have
double the margin but much more dept.
comments<BR><BR>Chris<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></FONT></FONT></BODY></HTML>
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