Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Winston Little" <wlittle1@peoplepc.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Identifying NEW leaders
Date: Wed, 7 Aug 2002 17:33:10 -0400
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Ian:=20
For CBI, there is certainly the cup (May 2001 to June 2002) and handle =
17 May to 02 Aug of 2002.
A curious item is the 1 million shares traded (2 and 34 July 2002) in =
the handle.
What is needed now is EXPLOSIVE price moment and volume in the next day =
or two before the handle becomes long in the tooth.
The cup has been very long (11 months) and the handle also has been very =
long.
If anyone disagrees with items in any of these notes, please say so.
Someone else may view items stated in a completely different light.=20
That is how we can help each other.
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Ian=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, August 07, 2002 5:31 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Identifying NEW leaders
Winston. Thank you for the analysis. One thing I would add is that the =
forward estimates are strong - $2.30-$2.35 for this year, and backlog is =
up 25% from Dec 31.
IMHO, the chart that has the most positive potential is the 2-year =
weekly chart. It has the potential to show a strong C&H, where it is =
currently at the bottom of the H and just around 15% below the handle =
high. But it definitely needs to develop futher, and would have to move =
through $33 on a good increase in ADV.
I also see the weekly moving averages still trending up. Why do your =
long-term charts point down?
Thanks again,
Ian
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Winston Little=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, August 07, 2002 1:45 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Identifying NEW leaders
CBI was offered for comment.
My viiews are:
Earnings cause some concern.
Q4 of 2000 had a substantial loss of (-$4.18) and Q2 of 2001 also =
had a loss of (-$0.13).
The last four quarters were all positive and strong ($1.91), but I =
could not find a pattern in the flow of earnings.
Revenues grew in all four quarters of 2000 and 2001, then fell in Q1 =
and Q2 of 2002, again making me uneasy.
Looking at the price-volume chart, I see relatively light trading (I =
prefer at least 80,000 to 100,000 shares/day).
Some increase occurs at about 02 July, but on an irregular basis.
Price had been falling from 14 May until 23 July, then turned up.
Last three days were down.
Next I looked at a three year and a five year chart.
Extrapolation on both of these imply that the next move is down.
In summary:
C=3D quarterly eps growing but irregular
A=3D growing in last two years (this smoothes out the irregular =
quarters)
N=3D Moved from bridge building to newer storage tanks including use =
for cryogenic and microelectronics
S =3D ???? 21 million shares outstanding (47,000 traded/day). =
Market Cap =3D $549 million.
L =3D Is #2 in group #63
I =3D appears a little weak ( but they have been sneaking in since =
02 July)
M=3D Quick rotating market
I need to see a little more action up or down before I would commit =
or avoid this one, but it is certainly a good candidate to watch.
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Ian=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, August 07, 2002 3:38 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Identifying NEW leaders
In light of the fact that these are extraordinary times, I'll =
throw one out with a terribly ugly chart, but very solid current and =
forward CANSLIM fundamentals ... (and besides, I love their name - the =
Engineer in me has always wanted to buy stocks like this): CBI-NYSE, =
Chicago Bridge and Iron
I am particularly intrigued by the combination of a strong grwing =
backlog, relatively low historical valuation and a sustained recent =
increase in ADV. However, the chart is awful. Any opinions on this one?
Ian
BTW - I qualify these as 'extraordinary times' because I've had no =
trouble finding strong groups/sectors/stocks at any point in the last =
few years, until this past June. It amazes me that everything can be =
weak simultaneously.
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Vanchee1@aol.com=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, August 07, 2002 11:38 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Identifying NEW leaders
Here is one similar to CHTT, what do you think.
DLI, Rev last qtr of 93 mil, EPS of .53, dept/equity .97, shrs =
out 8.6, float 4.7
CHTT Rev last qtr of 58 mil, EPS of .58, dept/equity 4.03, shrs =
out 9.5, float 8.1
CHTT does have double the margin but much more dept. comments
Chris
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<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian: </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>For CBI, t</FONT><FONT size=3D2>here is certainly =
the cup (May=20
2001 to June 2002) and handle 17 May to 02 Aug of =
2002.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>A curious item is the 1 million shares traded =
(2 and 34=20
July 2002) in the handle.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>What is needed now is EXPLOSIVE price moment and =
volume in the=20
next day or two before the handle becomes long in the =
tooth.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>The cup has been very long (11 months) and the =
handle also has=20
been very long.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>If anyone disagrees with items in any of these =
notes,=20
please say so.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Someone else may view items stated in a completely =
different=20
light.</FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>That is how we can help each other.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, August 07, =
2002 5:31=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Identifying NEW=20
leaders</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Winston. Thank you for the analysis. One thing I =
would add=20
is that the forward estimates are strong - $2.30-$2.35 for this year, =
and=20
backlog is up 25% from Dec 31.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>IMHO, the chart that has the most positive =
potential is the=20
2-year weekly chart. It has the potential to show a strong C&H,=20
where it is currently at the bottom of the H and just around 15% =
below=20
the handle high. But it definitely needs to develop futher, and would =
have to=20
move through $33 on a good increase in ADV.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I also see the weekly moving averages still =
trending up. Why=20
do your long-term charts point down?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Thanks again,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dwlittle1@peoplepc.com =
href=3D"mailto:wlittle1@peoplepc.com">Winston=20
Little</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, August 07, =
2002 1:45=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Identifying NEW=20
leaders</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>CBI was offered for comment.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>My viiews are:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Earnings cause some concern.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Q4 of 2000 had a substantial loss of (-$4.18) =
and Q2=20
of 2001 also had a loss of (-$0.13).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>The last four quarters were all positive and =
strong=20
($1.91), but I could not find a pattern in the flow of=20
earnings.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Revenues grew in all four quarters of 2000 and =
2001, then=20
fell in Q1 and Q2 of 2002, again making me uneasy.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Looking at the price-volume chart, I see =
relatively light=20
trading (I prefer at least 80,000 to 100,000 =
shares/day).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Some increase occurs at about 02 July, but on an =
irregular=20
basis.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Price had been falling from 14 May until 23 =
July, then=20
turned up.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Last three days were down.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Next I looked at a three year and a five year=20
chart.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Extrapolation on both of these imply that the =
next move is=20
down.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>In summary:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>C=3D quarterly eps growing but =
irregular</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>A=3D growing in last two years (this smoothes =
out the=20
irregular quarters)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>N=3D Moved from bridge building to newer storage =
tanks=20
including use for cryogenic and microelectronics</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>S =3D ???? 21 million shares =
outstanding (47,000=20
traded/day). Market Cap =3D $549 million.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>L =3D Is #2 in group #63</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I =3D appears a little weak ( but they have been =
sneaking in=20
since 02 July)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>M=3D Quick rotating market</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I need to see a little more action up or =
down before=20
I would commit or avoid this one, but it is certainly a good =
candidate=20
to watch.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, August 07, =
2002 3:38=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Identifying=20
NEW leaders</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>In light of the fact that these are =
extraordinary times,=20
I'll throw one out with a terribly ugly chart, but very solid =
current and=20
forward CANSLIM fundamentals ... (and besides, I love their name - =
the=20
Engineer in me has always wanted to buy stocks like this): =
CBI-NYSE,=20
Chicago Bridge and Iron</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I am particularly intrigued by the combination =
of a=20
strong grwing backlog, relatively low historical valuation and a =
sustained=20
recent increase in ADV. However, the chart is awful. Any opinions =
on this=20
one?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>BTW - I qualify these as 'extraordinary times' =
because=20
I've had no trouble finding strong groups/sectors/stocks at any =
point in=20
the last few years, until this past June. It amazes me that =
everything can=20
be weak simultaneously.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3DVanchee1@aol.com=20
href=3D"mailto:Vanchee1@aol.com">Vanchee1@aol.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, August =
07, 2002=20
11:38 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Identifying=20
NEW leaders</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><FONT face=3Darial,helvetica><FONT lang=3D0=20
face=3D"Century Gothic" size=3D2 FAMILY=3D"SANSSERIF">Here is =
one similar to=20
CHTT, what do you think.<BR><BR>DLI, Rev last qtr of 93 =
mil, EPS=20
of .53, dept/equity .97, shrs out 8.6, float 4.7<BR><BR>CHTT Rev =
last=20
qtr of 58 mil, EPS of .58, dept/equity 4.03, shrs out 9.5, float =
8.1<BR><BR>CHTT does have double the margin but much more dept.=20
=
comments<BR><BR>Chris<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQU=
OTE></FONT></FONT></BODY></HTML>
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